Post by Makers on Nov 22, 2015 8:01:04 GMT -5
The Redskins march into Charlotte on Sunday (1 p.m. ET, FOX) as the tenth team this season looking to hand the Panthers their first defeat.
Line: Panthers -7 (-120), Total: 45
Line movement: Early action gobbled up the hook after the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook opened Carolina a 7.5-point favorite. The game is -7 at every shop in Vegas as of Friday, but most books are charging extra vig on the favorite. The total dropped a half point to 44.5 at the SuperBook, but 45 and 45.5 can be found throughout town.
Trends that matter: Washington is 7-3 ATS after scoring 30 points or more in its previous game, but 3-13 ATS in its last 16 following a cover….Carolina is 5-1 ATS in its last six….The Panthers are 5-1-1 ATS as a home favorite of a touchdown or more since Ron Rivera took over as coach in 2011....The OVER is 7-1 after a Redskins ATS win.
Washington (4-5 SU, 4-5 ATS): The ‘Skins come off a 47-point effort against a historically bad Saints defense; defensive coordinator Rob Ryan was fired following the game. Kirk Cousins became the first Redskin QB to throw for more than 300 yards with at least a 150 quarterback rating since 1948.
Don’t expect a pass-happy attack in Carolina. Washington would like nothing more than to emulate the power-running game employed by the Panthers, especially since the home team’s 5.6 yards per pass attempt is second-best in the league. Cousin’s best weapon Jordan Reed may find it tough against an athletic linebacking corps allowing just 4.6 receptions to tight ends on the year.
Washington is 1-3 ATS in four road games, but has posted 160.5 rushing yards per contest. Jay Gruden knows the offense must attempt to manage the clock to keep it as close as possible to pull off a road win in the league.
The D has played well, holding opponents to below their projected team total in six of nine games. But it will have to find improvement to stop the read-option of Cam Newton. Its 5.0 rushing yards per attempt is last in the NFL.
Panthers (9-0 SU, 7-2 ATS): Carolina is just the second team in NFL history to start the season 9-0 SU following a losing season, per ESPN. Averaging 28.8 points at home this year, it will have to lay an egg this weekend to suffer its first loss against the ‘Skins.
Frankly, the 'Skins D plays right into the hands of Newton’s offense. Its inability to slow the run will allow the passing game to excel via play-action. Last weekend, Newton was 8-of-9 for 92 yards, one touchdown and no picks in play-action, per ESPN. He’ll have to spread his targets beyond favorite Greg Olsen though. Washington is one of the best at covering tight ends, allowing just 45.3 yards and 4.3 catches per game through nine.
When favored to win in the betting market, Rivera’s defense excels, allowing just 17.6 points per contest in seven as chalk. The Luke Kuechly-led unit’s 4.8 yards per play is second-best in the league and .278 points per play third-best. It’s been average against the run, though, gifting 4.1 per carry. It will have to guard against ‘Skins backfield with a bevy of bruising runners.
Pick: Sporting a perfect record, Carolina is wearing a bullseye into every contest from here on out. Every team would like to be the first to knock off the Panthers, and one would think the ‘Skins would be up for the test, especially coming off its huge win against the Saints. But Washington may look past here. Gruden’s squad is just a game out of the NFC East lead, and has two division opponents next on the schedule (Giants, Cowboys). A touchdown is a lot to lay, particularly in a game that could stay UNDER the total, but the Panthers, underrated by the betting public and books all season, still may be undervalued headed into Week 11. The Sporting News staff will take a shot on the Panthers -7