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Post by Gooba on Dec 30, 2015 8:08:09 GMT -5
Bowl Tech Trends - Week 3 By Bruce Marshall
Wednesday, December 30
MEMPHIS vs. AUBURN (Birmingham Bowl) Gus Malzahn 2-10 vs. spread this season, , 2-15 last 17 on board, 4-19 last 23 vs. spread since early 2014. Memphis 5-0-1 last six as dog and won and covered its bowl vs. BYU LY.
Memphis, based on recent Auburn woes.
NC STATE vs. MISSISSIPPI STATE (Belk Bowl) MSU 2-3 vs. line last five bowls, and Dan Mullen just 9-9-1 last 19 games on board since mid 2014. Wolfpack 0-4 as dog TY though have covered 8 of last 10 away from Raleigh and are 12-6 last 18 on board.
Slight to NCS, based on team trends.
LOUISVILLE vs. TEXAS A&M (Music City Bowl) Petrino a very middling 13-12 vs. spread since his return to the ‘Ville and just 2-6 vs. spread in bowls during his career (0-4 as bowl dog). Kevin Sumlin 4-1 SU, 3-2 vs. line in bowls, and Ags just 12-21 last 33 vs. spread since early 2013.
Slight to A&M, based on bowl trends.
WISCONSIN vs. SOUTHERN CAL (Holiday Bowl) Badgers 3-1-1 vs. line last five as bowl dog. Wiscy 11-5 last 16 as dog (though 0-1 TY). Paul Chryst right around .500 in almost all spread categories in his career. Trojans 1-2 vs. line last three bowls, 3-8 vs. points last 11 away from Coliseum.
Wisconsin, based on team trends.
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Post by Gooba on Dec 30, 2015 8:08:50 GMT -5
Birmingham Bowl, Dec 30 Memphis is 9-3 this year, 19-6 last two years, after being 12-48 in previous five years, but they lost Fuente to Va Tech; they've got best QB on field in senior Lynch. Tigers won bowl LY over BYU in OT; they're 2-0 as underdogs this year. Auburn lost 34-31 each of last two bowl games; four of their last five bowls were decided by exactly three points. Malzahn is 0-2 in bowl games. SEC teams won/covered this bowl as favorites last three years. AAC squads are 1-5 in bowls this year, 2-9 last two years; they covered once in last six games as a bowl underdog.
Belk Bowl, Charlotte NC State figures to have crowd edge with game in Charlotte, but SEC teams are 24-15-1 as bowl favorites last six years. In last four years, SEC teams are 7-3 vs ACC in bowl games. Last three years, ACC teams are 11-15 SU in bowls. NC State won three of last four bowls; Doeren is 2-0 in bowls. Wolfpack has senior QB who used to play at Florida, so SEC foe won't scare him. Prescott is a senior QB who is 18-7 last two years. Bulldogs are 3-2 in last five bowls, but were favored in all five games. NC State is 0-4 vs spread as an underdog this year, losing all four games by 11+ points.
Music City Bowl, Nashville Extreme weirdness for Texas A&M, with top two QBs bolting out of school since regular season ended; #3 QB Hubenak was JC QB LY who is 12-27/92 in cameo action TY. Louisville is 7-2 in its last nine games after an 0-3 start; they're 1-5 vs bowl teams this year, four of its last six games were by 7 or less points. Aggies scored 42.8 ppg, in winning last four bowl games; they're 3-4 last seven games after a 5-0 start, giving up 230+ YR in those games. Sumlin is 4-1 in bowls overall. SEC teams won this bowl three of last four years; favorites covered four of last six. Petrino is 4-4 in bowls; Cardinals are 3-2 in last five bowls.
Holiday Bowl, San Diego Pac-12 teams are 5-1 in bowls this year (4-2 vs spread); last three years, they're 14-10-1 as bowl favorites. USC won four of last five bowls, scoring 45 in last two. Last four years, Big 14 teams are 15-7-2 vs spread as bowl underdogs. Last three years, Pac-12 teams are 3-2 vs Big 14 in bowls. Trojan coach Helton won bowl game as interim coach in '13; USC won five of last seven games after a 3-3 start- they allowed 41+ points in last three losses. Wisconsin is on third coach in four years; they're 1-4 in last five bowls, winning in OT LY. Favorites are 13-11 vs spread in bowls; over is 16-8.
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