Sportsbook Director at the South Point - Chris Andrews
Sunday, Nov. 21
Detroit at Cleveland (-12, 43.5)
Tim Boyle is expected to start at quarterback for Detroit in place of Jared Goff (strained oblique). My opening line of Cleveland -10 is up to -12 based on that news. Very little money on this game so far. Sharps either don’t want any part of Boyle at + 12 or are waiting to see if they might get as much as + 13 or + 14 on game day. The public seems hesitant to lay a big number with the inconsistent and banged up Browns.
I did get bet Under my opening total of 44.5. I’m down to 43.5 based on that bet and Detroit’s QB developments.
San Francisco (-6.5, 45.5) at Jacksonville
Before Monday night, I opened San Francisco -5.5 and got limited interest. After the big win over the Rams, I reopened Niners -6.5. I have been getting public money on San Francisco. Not worth moving to the key number of seven yet. Sharps thinking about the Jaguars would likely wait until seeing + 7 to play. And, with a bad team like the Jags, it might take + 7.5 or more to draw sharp interest. Sometimes favorites of -6 or -6.5 get bet by the public in a lot of 6-point teasers and moneyline parlays. That’s NOT happening yet. We’ll see if it does this weekend.
My opening total of 46 was bet down to 45.5.
Indianapolis at Buffalo (-7, 50)
I opened Buffalo -7. Some sharps laid that price, driving me up to -7.5. But, at 7.5 sharps preferring the Colts jumped in pretty hard. I’m back to 7. This may be a game where I have to jump back and forth a few times between now and kickoff. I usually try to stick on the “whole” number as long as possible in those situations. Public interest in the Bills might make that difficult. They like laying points with “blowout” teams like Buffalo. All six Bills’ wins have been by 15 points or more (15-18-22-25-28-40) I’ll do my best to manage our risk. Buffalo has been popular in six-point teasers so far at -1 or -1.5. Some interest in moneyline parlays too.
My opening total of 49.5 was bet up to 50.
Miami (-3.5, 44.5) at the NY Jets
Sharps and the public bet Miami hard at my opening line of Dolphins -3, so I moved to -3.5. Miami interest stopped with the hook. I’m starting to get some play on the Jets, but not nearly enough to move back to a field goal. My opening total of 45 was bet down to 44.5. Can understand why bettors skeptical of new Jets QB Joe Flacco loved Miami -3 and liked the Under.
Washington at Carolina (-3.5, 43)
I’m surprised how much respect returning Carolina QB Cam Newton is getting from bettors. Though, that could be because “anyone” would be better than Sam Darnold and P.J. Walker. My opener of Carolina -3 was bet up to -3.5 (a mix of sharps and the public). At 3.5, I have been getting some sharp buyback on Washington. Might be a game where I have to go back and forth between 3 and 3.5 a few times. Much more likely here than in Miami/NYJ.
My opening total of 43 hasn’t changed. A little bit of play on the Over. Not enough to move the line.
Baltimore (-6, 44) at Chicago
A lot of movement here because of Lamar Jackson’s evolving status for the Ravens. I opened Baltimore -6.5 and reports surfaced that Jackson was ill. Bears bettors took + 6.5, + 6 and + 5.5. Aware of the news, I was dropping quickly. Jackson’s prognosis improved Friday morning Las Vegas time. Money hit the Ravens. I jumped back to Baltimore -6. For now, he’s expected to play.
Sharps bet Under my opening total of 45. I dropped straight to 44. A check of the weather shows a forecast for strong wind and possible rain in the Windy City. If that forecast doesn’t improve, that total will likely fall further.
New Orleans at Philadelphia (-1.5, 43.5)
Haven’t moved off my opener of Philadelphia -1.5. Ticket count is almost exactly even. As I write this, just a one ticket difference. I see other shops moving to Eagles -2. I’ll take a bet before I follow suit. To this point, there’s no clear sharp/public divide in the betting. Worth noting that I’m NOT seeing teaser interest on the Saints. In games we’re about to discuss, we’ll see other short dogs that are getting moved across the 3 and 7 in six-point teasers. Sharps are less interested in trying that with Trevor Siemian.
Split action at my opening total of 43.5
Houston at Tennessee (-10, 44.5)
I opened Tennessee -10.5. Sharps took the dog, probably noticing that Tennessee’s offense has been shakier than the scoreboard would suggest since Derrick Henry went out. The public is heavily on the Titans. They’re laying -10, they’re putting Tennessee in moneyline parlays and they’re even teasing the line six points lower to make the favorite feel cheaper (an unsound strategy around -10 that works often enough to get the public into trouble).
I dropped my opening total of 45 down to 44.5 after some educated bets on the Under.
Green Bay (-1.5, 47.5) at Minnesota
Sharps are expecting Aaron Rodgers to struggle in this spot. I opened Green Bay -2.5. Sharps took Minnesota + 2.5 and + 2. Sharps also bet Minnesota in six-point teasers up to + 8 or + 8.5. (Minnesota’s losses this year have been by 1, 3, 3, 4 and 7 points…with both 3s coming in overtime.) I took several moneyline bets too on the Vikings at + 125 and + 120. I’m down now to Green Bay -125/Minnesota + 105.
With the total, sharps bet Under my opening total of 49, Under 48.5 and Under 48. I’m currently at 47.5, but I see 47’s out there. Sharps are speaking loud and clear.
Cincinnati (pick-em, 51) at Las Vegas
Split action so far. Educated bettors are shading toward the Bengals. The public is mostly on the Raiders here in their home city. We’ll see what develops through the weekend. Ticket count is almost even right now.
Sharps were aggressive early on the Over. I opened the total at 49. Sharps bet Over, so I went straight to 50. They bet Over again and I went straight to 51. I am getting some buyback on the Under at 51, but not enough to drop the line yet.
Arizona (-2.5, 48) at Seattle
I opened Arizona -2.5. Here at the South Point, the public is betting Arizona. But, I see the Cardinals as low as -2 elsewhere in the market. I’m hesitant to go up to Arizona -3 with that in mind. Seattle is popular with sharps in six-point teasers at + 8.5. Many wiseguys like teasing short divisional dogs (as we saw with Minnesota vs. Green Bay).
Sharps have also been betting Under. I opened 50. They bet Under that. They bet Under 49.5, so I dropped straight to 48.5. They kept betting Under. I’m down to 48 now. Both teams are dealing with hobbled star quarterbacks.
Dallas at Kansas City (-2.5, 56.5)
Great betting game. The public loves betting on both teams. Could have a Super Bowl feel by kickoff. Sharps decided the Chiefs offered value at my opener of Kansas City -1.5. A combination of sharp and public money laid KC -1.5 and KC -2. I’m up to KC -2.5 now. Dallas has been a popular bet in 6-point teasers at + 7.5 and + 8. I’ve also been writing moneyline bets on the Cowboys at + 120. Best way to summarize: sharps who like the Chiefs are laying -1.5 and -2. Sharps who like the Cowboys are betting on the moneyline or teasing up past the 3 and 7.
My opening total of 55.5 has been bet up to 56 and 56.5 by a mix of sharp and public money. It’s expected to be a shootout. Sharps who liked the Over knew they needed to get their money in quickly.
Pittsburgh at the LA Chargers (-6, 47)
I opened late because there are so many injury question marks with the Steelers. Not just Ben Roethlisberger. Many significant players are questionable. I finally opened Chargers -6. I’m writing pretty good business both ways. I’ll be watching the injury wire very closely. So many moving parts to monitor to here, but it’s the Sunday night game and customers will want some action.
Very little interest yet in my opening total of 47.
Monday, Nov. 22
NY Giants at Tampa Bay (-11, 50)
I’ve been taking early sharp money on the Giants seemingly every week this season. That was the case here too, but not enough to move off my opening line of Tampa Bay -11. I know public money will be pounding the Bucs all week. Recreational players love TV favorites and really love backing a superstar quarterback after one or two bad games. Tom Brady was breathing fire after the loss to Washington. Sharps will like the G-men at + 11 or better. We’ll see if public action drives the spread higher. It’s already clear Tampa Bay will be popular to win straight up in moneyline parlays.
My opening total of 50.5 was bet down to 50. __________________
Detroit (0-8-1) @ Cleveland (5-5) — Detroit is winless, has gone WLWLWLWW vs spread. — Last six games, Lions were outscored 91-32 in first half. — Detroit has six TD’s on its last 54 drives. — Goff played thru oblique injury LW (check status) — Detroit’s backup QB is Blough (0-5 as starter in 2019). — Last three years, Detroit is 9-9-1 ATS as road underdogs. — Six of last seven Detroit games stayed under the total. — Lions lost twice on last-second FG’s, missed 48-yarder in OT LW.
— Cleveland lost four of its last six games. — Browns scored 17 or fewer points in four of last five games. — Mayfield has shoulder/knee issues (check status) — Cleveland outscored foes 42-15 in last 2:00 of each half. — Cleveland is 1-3 in games decided by 5 or fewer points. — Browns are 5-7 ATS last 12 games as home favorite. — Last three games, Cleveland converted 7-30 third down plays. — Over is 4-2 in Browns’ last six games.
— Browns won last three series games, scoring 35.7 ppg. — Lions lost 31-17/31-10 in last two visits to Cleveland. — Last time Detroit beat the Browns? 2001.
San Francisco (4-5) @ Jacksonville (2-7) — Short week, long trip for 49ers after Monday night’s win. — 49ers lost five of their last seven games. — 49ers are 1-5 SU when they score fewer than 31 points. — Three of their four wins came on road (Lions/Eagles/Bears) — Thru nine games, 49ers are minus-8 in turnovers. — Last two years, 49ers are 4-2 ATS as road favorites. — Last five years, 49ers are 16-14 ATS coming off a win. — Three of 49ers’ last four games went over the total.
— Jaguars split last four games, after an 0-20 skid. — Jacksonville already has five losses by 10+ points. — Jaguars have three TD’s on their last 31 drives. — Jacksonville is minus-10 in turnovers (4-14) — Last three years, Jaguars are 6-10 ATS as home underdogs. — Last three years, Jacksonville is 15-20 ATS overall as dogs. — Jaguars converted 33 of 109 third down plays (30.3%). — Eight of their last nine games stayed under the total.
— 49ers won last three series games, by 11-32-17 points. — Teams split last two meetings played here.
Indianapolis (5-5) @ Buffalo (6-3) — Colts won/covered five of last seven games, after an 0-3 start. — Indy is 10-7-1 ATS last 18 games as a road underdog. — Last seven weeks, Colts outscored opponents 105-54 in first half. — Last three games, Colts were outscored 48-37 in second half. — Colts have 20 takeaways in last nine games (+11) — Colts blocked punt for a TD last week. — Indy split four road games TY, losing 25-16 at Titans, 31-25 at Ravens. — Five of their last seven games went over the total.
— Bills split last four games, after a 4-1 start. — All six of their wins are by 15+ points. — Buffalo has given up only 13 TD’s on 93 drives. — Bills are 7-2 ATS last nine games as home favorites. — Last seven games, Bills are +14 in turnovers. — Buffalo outscored opponents 146-65 in first half. — Under is 3-1 in Buffalo hone games this season. — Bills’ last three opponents converted 9-37 on third down.
— Buffalo won three of last four games with the Colts. — Colts lost last five visits to Buffalo (1-4 ATS)
Miami (3-7) @ NJ Jets (2-7) — Dolphins had extra prep time; they won last Thursday. — Miami won last two games, giving up one TD on 25 drives. — Dolphins allowed 16-9-10 points in their wins. — Miami has given up 53 plays of 20+ yards, has only 35 themselves. — Last five years, Miami is 1-3 ATS as road favorites. — Last three Dolphin games stayed under the total. — Miami hasn’t allowed a first half TD in its last three games. — Last three years, Dolphins are 5-3 ATS in AFC East road games.
— Jets have used four QB’s last four games; who starts here? — Jets gave up 54-31-45-45 points in last four games. — In those four games, Jets allowed 30 plays of 20+ yards. — Jets have been outscored 61-14 in first quarter, 168-47 in first half. — Last three years, Jets are 10-7 ATS as home underdogs. — Last four years, Jets are 13-25 ATS coming off a loss. — Last six Jet games went over the total. — Last four years, Jets are 2-9 ATS in AFC East home games.
— Miami won three in row, eight of last ten series games. — Dolphins are 4-1 ATS in last five road series games. — Six of last seven series stayed under the total.
Washington (3-6) @ Carolina (5-5) — Washington lost four of last five games- they upset Tampa Bay LW. — Washington converted 11-19 on third down in last week’s win. — Washington has covered twice in nine games this year. — Last four games, Washington was outscored 51-23 in second half. — Washington opponents converted 69-125 on third down (55.2%). — Washington is 1-3 ATS on road this season, 0-3 as a road dog. — Last four Washington games stayed under the total. — NFC East road teams are 11-4 ATS in non-divisional games.
— Carolina lost five of last seven games after a 3-0 start. — Carolina is 0-5 if it allows more than 14 points. — Panthers threw for 6 or fewer yards/pass attempt in last 7 games. — Panthers are 4-7 ATS last 11 games as home favorites. — Carolina outscored opponents 117-66 in first half. — Last seven games, Panthers were outscored 103-56 in second half. — Under is 7-3 in Carolina games this season. — NFC South favorites are 6-11 ATS in non-divisional games.
— Ron Rivera visits his old team (HC 2011-19) here. — Carolina won six of last eight series games. — Washington is 3-2 ATS in last five visits to Charlotte.
Baltimore (6-3) @ Chicago (3-6) — Ravens had extra prep time since their Thursday game LW. — Ravens split four road games SU; underdogs covered all four. — Baltimore is 0-3 ATS this season as a road favorite. — Baltimore gave up TD on defense/special teams last two weeks. — Ravens trailed at halftime in four of last five games. — Last four games, opponents are 18-65 on third down — Baltimore trailed at halftime in four of last five games. — Ravens are 8-16-2 ATS in last 26 games vs NFC opponents.
— Bears lost their last four games (1-3 ATS) — Chicago allowed 30.7 ppg in losses, 17 or less in wins. — Bears gave up 33.3 ppg in their last three games. — Last six games, Bears ran ball for 154.3 yards/game. — Chicago outgained Steelers 414-280 last game, a 29-27 loss. — Bears are 5-7 ATS last 12 games as home dogs, 0-2 this year. — Over is 2-0-1 in their last three games. — Chicago is 0-7 ATS in last seven post-bye games.
— Chicago won last two meetings, both by a FG. — Ravens lost 23-20/10-6 in last two visits to the Windy City. — Favorites are 3-1-1 ATS last five series games.
New Orleans (5-4) @ Philadelphia (4-6) — Saints lost last couple games, by two points each. — Last two weeks, New Orleans was outscored 23-6 in first half. — Saints are 14-3-1 ATS last 18 games with spread of 3 or less points. — New Orleans held eight of nine opponents under 100 yards rushing. — Underdogs won six of their nine games SU (8-1 ATS). — Last three years, Saints are 8-1-1 ATS coming off a loss. — New Orleans has 25 plays of 20+ yards, their opponents have 39. — Five of their last six games went over the total.
— Philly is 4-1 if it allows 18 or less points, 0-5 if it allows more. — Eagles are 0-4 SU at home this year, losing by 6-12-6-3 points. — Eagles are 7-13 ATS last 20 games with spread of 3 or less points. — Philly had 236-176-214 YR last three games (98.6 ypg previous five games) — Last three weeks, Eagles outscored opponents 47-17 in first half. — Last three weeks, Philly converted 25-48 on third down. — Three of last four Eagle games went over the total. — NFC East teams are 7-10 ATS in non-divisional home games.
— Saints won six of last nine series games. — Eagles ran for 246 yards in LY’s 24-21 home win over NO. — Saints are 1-3 ATS in last four visits to Philadelphia.
Houston (1-8) @ Tennessee (8-2) — Texans lost last eight games, giving up 28.6 ppg. — Last four games, Houston was outscored 68-11 in 1st half. — Houston was outscored 119-17 in last three road games. — Last two years, Texans are 3-7 ATS as road underdogs. — Last six games, Texans are minus-7 in turnovers (8-15) — Houston didn’t score a TD in three of last four games. — Under is 5-2 in Texans’ last seven games. — Last three years, Houston is 0-3 ATS in post-bye games.
— Tennessee won six in row, eight of last nine games (7-2 ATS) — First six weeks, Titans ran for 165 yards/game; last four, 82.8 ypg. — Tennessee has nine takeaways in last four games (+5). — Only two of Titans’ last ten TD drives were longer than 60 yards. — Last four years, Tennessee is 8-10 ATS as home favorites. — Titans are 5-2 ATS this season coming off a win. — Tennessee has only four TD plays longer than 18 yards. — Over is 5-2 in Tennessee’s last seven games.
— Tennessee won four of last five series games. — Last three meetings were decided by 6-3-3 points. — Favorites are 10-4 ATS in last 14 series games.
Green Bay (8-2) @ Minnesota (3-5) — Green Bay won eight of last nine games (8-0-1 ATS) — Last 2 weeks, Packers allowed one TD on 19 drives, vs KC/Seattle. — Green Bay is 4-2-1 ATS last seven games as a road favorite. — In Rodgers’ last 3 starts, Green Bay converted 19-40 on third down. — Pack is 10-4-2 ATS last 16 games with spread of 3 or less points. — Packers held four of last five foes under 6.0 yards/pass attempt. — Green Bay is 5-2 ATS in last seven NFC North road tilts. — Last seven Packer games stayed under the total.
— Eight of Vikings’ nine games were decided by 7 or fewer points. — Underdogs are 7-2 ATS in Viking games this season. — Minnesota is +6 in turnovers last four games (even first 5 games) — Vikings led their last five games at halftime. — Minnesota is 11-13 ATS last 24 games with spread of 3 or less points. — Minnesota has been outscored 77-19 in last 2:00 of each half. — Five of Vikings’ last seven games stayed under the total. — Since their bye, Vikings won field position, by 8-7-10 yards.
— Green Bay is 3-1-1 SU in last five series games. — Packers are 5-3 in last eight visits here, winning 43-34/23-10 in last two. — Underdogs covered four of last five series games.
Cincinnati (5-4) @ Las Vegas (5-4) — Cincinnati lost last two games, giving up 34-41 points. — Bengals are 5-1 scoring 24+ points, 0-3 otherwise. — Cincinnati scored 31+ points in three of last four games. — Bengals are 7-10-2 ATS last 19 games with spread of 3 or less. — Last two games, Cincy was outscored 37-20 in 2nd half. — Bengals are 5-8 ATS in last thirteen road games. — Cincinnati is 1-4 ATS in last five post-bye games. — Last three Bengal games went over the total.
— Since moving to Las Vegas, over is 10-2-1 in Raider home games. — Since moving to Las Vegas, Raiders are 5-8 SU at home (6-7 ATS) — Raiders lost last two games, outscored 37-10 in second half. — Raiders gave up 422 passing yards in LW’s loss to Chiefs. — Las Vegas is 12-16-1 ATS in last 29 games with spread of 3 or less. — Raiders converted 12 of last 41 third down plays. — Las Vegas allowed 20+ points in eight of nine games this year. — Three of their last four games went over the total.
— Bengals won three of last four series games. — Bengals were 1-3 in last four trips to Oakland, losing by 7-3-3 points.
Arizona (8-2) @ Seattle (3-6) — Check Murray’s (ankle) status; backup QB’s struggled LW. — Arizona lost two of last three games, after a 7-0 start. — Cardinals are 7-3 ATS this season. — Arizona is 11-8 ATS last 19 games as a road favorite. — Cardinals are +11 in turnovers in wins, minus-3 in losses. — Arizona has 209 points on 36 drives to red zone (5.81) — Arizona has 43 plays of 20+ yards; their opponents have 23. — Over is 3-0 in last three Arizona road games.
— Seahawks were shut out last week, for first time in 10 years. — Seahawks lost six of their last eight games overall. — Seattle is 3-1 if it scores 28+ points, 0-5 if it doesn’t. — Last 11 years, Seattle is 11-4 ATS home underdog. — Seattle was outgained 393-208 LW; game was 3-0 in 4th quarter. — Seattle has 38 plays of 20+ yards; they’ve given up 29. — Last four games, opponents converted 23-79 on third down. — Four of Seahawks’ last five games stayed under total.
— Seahawks won five of last seven series games. — Cardinals are 6-2 ATS in last eight visits to Seattle. — Under is 4-1 in last five series games.
Dallas (7-2) @ Kansas City (6-4) — Cowboys won seven of their last eight games. — Dallas is 8-1 ATS; they gave up 31-30 points in losses. — Cowboys blocked punt for TD last week, led Falcons 36-3 at half. — Last six years, Cowboys are 13-9-1 ATS vs AFC teams. — Dallas is 5-9 ATS last 14 games with spread of 3 or less points. — Cowboys are 4-1 ATS this season coming off a win. — Last three Dallas games stayed under the total. — NFC East teams are 8-4 ATS as non-divisional road dogs.
— Chiefs allowed only 12.7 ppg in last three games. — Kansas City is 4-0 if it allows 17 or less points, 2-4 if they allow more. — Chiefs scored five TD’s LW; they had total of three in previous three games. — Chiefs turned ball over 20 times in last nine games (-10) — Kansas City is 16-6-1 ATS in last 23 games with spread of 3 or less. — KC has 38 plays of 20+ yards, their opponents have 45. — Four of Chiefs’ last five games stayed under the total. — Chiefs are 12-16-1 ATS last 29 games vs NFC teams.
— Dallas won three of last four series games. — Cowboys lost 17-16 in last visit to Arrowhead, in 2013.
Pittsburgh (5-3-1) @ LA Chargers (5-4) — Check status for Roethlisberger (COVID); he sat out LW. — Steelers are 4-0-1 SU in last five games, giving up 18.4 ppg. — Pitt was held under 300 TY in last two games, by Bears/Lions. — Last eight games, Steelers were outscored 107-72 in second half. — Pittsburgh is 3-7 ATS in last ten games on artificial turf. — Last five years, Steelers are 12-4 ATS as road underdogs. — Steelers gave up 229 RY to Lions, were minus-3 in turnovers; tie isn’t so bad. — Under is 6-2-1 in Steeler games this year.
— Chargers lost three of last four games, after a 4-1 start. — Seven of their nine games were decided by 7 or fewer points. — Last five games, Chargers allowed 167.2 rushing yards/game. — Last four years, LA is 5-16-1 ATS as home favorites. — Bolts are 8-13-1 ATS last 22 games, coming off a loss. — Chargers are 2-3 SU at home, beating Raiders/Browns. — Under is 6-3 in Charger games this year. — AFC West non-divisional road favorites are 4-2 ATS.
— Underdogs won last four series games SU. — Steelers won seven of last ten meetings. — Pittsburgh won four of last five road series games.
Monday’s game NY Giants (3-6) @ Tampa Bay (6-2) — Giants won two of last three games SU (3-0 ATS) — Big Blue is 23-8 ATS last 31 games as road underdog (3-1 TY). — Since 2016, Giants are 6-3 ATS as double digit underdogs. — Giants have been outscored 64-12 in last 2:00 of each half. — You’re reading armadillosports.com — Opponents have started ten drives in Giant territory (minus-7). — Giants are 3-4 ATS in last seven post-bye games. — Giants are 8-7-1 ATS last 16 games coming off a win. — NFC East teams are 8-4 ATS as non-divisional road dogs.
— Bucs lost last two games, giving up 36-29 points. — Buccaneers have 34 TD’s on 95 drives this season. — Last eight games, Tampa Bay is +6 in turnovers. — Washington converted 11-19 on 3rd down vs Bucs last week. — Previous four games, opponents converted 14-51 on third down. — Over is 5-3-1 in Tampa Bay games this season. — With Brady at QB, Tampa Bay is 6-3-1 ATS as a home favorite. — Buccaneers won last three home games by a combined 131-45.
— Giants won seven of last nine series games (2-2 last four) — Last four meetings were all decided by 3 or fewer points. — Big Blue won four of last five visits to Tampa.