Post by Makers on Jan 2, 2016 6:21:05 GMT -5
Packers open as 3-point home faves versus Vikings with NFC North title on the line
We’ve finally hit the last week of the regular season in the NFL, and with a host of games holding playoff ramifications, no less. Perhaps the most intriguing matchup will take place on the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field, between NFC North rivals Green Bay and Minnesota.
Both teams have already punched their postseason tickets. But the winner of this game wins the division, which comes with the No. 3 seed and a home game in the wild-card round of the playoffs. Both teams also enter this game following Week 16 blowouts, though they were on opposite sides of those results.
Green Bay (10-5 SU, 9-6 SU) went to Arizona as a 6-point underdog and got waxed by the Cardinals 38-8 Sunday. The loss halted a 4-1 SU and ATS surge by the Packers, including 3-0 SU and ATS in their previous three games.
On the flip side, in the Sunday night game, Minnesota manhandled a New York Giants squad that already knew it had nothing to play for, due to the Washington Redskins’ victory at Philadelphia on Saturday. The Vikings (10-5 SU, 12-3 ATS), with the second-best spread-covering record in the league, plowed to a 49-17 home victory laying 7 points.
The Packers and Vikings met Nov. 22 in Minnesota, with the Pack rolling 30-13 as 1-point pups, the win that started Green Bay’s 4-1 SU and ATS streak. John Lester, senior lines manager for Bookmaker.eu, had to hold off on posting a line, waiting to see how Minnesota comes out of the Sunday night game injury-wise, but he expects Green Bay to be a solid home favorite.
“A division title will be on the line, so we’re in for a great Week 17 bout,” Lester said. “The first matchup was completely one-sided, as the Vikings got behind big early, and they aren’t a team that is built to win from behind. But quarterback Teddy Bridgewater has really looked like a more confident player over the past couple of weeks. If everything goes accordingly Sunday night, the Packers will open around touchdown chalk.”
Johnny Avello, executive director of race and sports for Wynn Las Vegas, was seeing things tighter than that.
“I thought about opening this line at 5 or so, but the way Green Bay played against Arizona, and with the Packers having only two quality wins all year, I'll settle around 3 points,” Avello said. “The Vikings haven't beat the Pack in their last five meetings, but this one has more meaning than the last five combined.”
Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals (-4)
Arizona (13-2 SU, 9-6 ATS) is already guaranteed no worse than the No. 2 seed and a first-round playoff bye. But if somehow Tampa Bay beats Carolina in an early game next Sunday, the Cards could get the top seed by winning their late afternoon game against Seattle.
The Cardinals drubbed Green Bay 38-8 Sunday as 6-point home chalk for their ninth consecutive SU victory (5-4 ATS).
Seattle (9-6 SU, 7-7-1 ATS), locked into a wild-card playoff spot, was a hefty 11.5-point home fave Sunday against St. Louis, but couldn’t find a way to win, let alone cover. The Seahawks trailed 16-0 in the second quarter and ultimately lost 23-17.
Back in mid-November, Arizona went to Seattle as a 3-point pup and held on for a 39-32 outright victory.
“In meeting No. 1 this year, the Cards showed confidence as they jumped out to a big lead, fell behind and then rallied for the victory,” Avello said. “There's a changing of the guard in the NFC West, and the ‘Hawks need to play flawless to win in the desert.”
Lester pointed out that, should Carolina win, Arizona has nothing to play for.
“There was some discussion among our team to make the Cardinals a bit higher favorite, but considering there’s a chance they could sit some personnel, we settled on -4,” Lester said. “Seattle is also already in the second season and could do the same, but we aren’t anticipating that. Early money came in on the underdog, and we moved to -3 within the first half hour.”
Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (-7)
Now that Carolina has lost, Kansas City is tied with Arizona for the longest active winning streak in the NFL. The Chiefs (10-5 SU, 8-7 ATS) started out 1-5 SU and ATS, but they haven’t lost since. On Sunday, they won their ninth in a row (7-2 ATS) fending off Cleveland 17-13, though K.C. fell well short at the betting window as an 11.5-point home fave.
The Chiefs have locked up at least a wild-card bid, but could still catch or even overtake Denver and win the AFC West.
Oakland (7-8 SU and ATS) has been hit-and-miss all season, but is still far better than last year’s squad, which dropped its first 10 games en route to a 3-13 SU mark. On Thursday night, the Raiders squeaked by San Diego 23-20 in overtime, just short of cashing as a 4-point fave.
“Even though the Chiefs have clinched a playoff berth, we don’t think they’ll be diverting from the norm in Week 17, especially considering their norm is vanilla,” Lester said. “The Raiders have been a popular play among the public recently, and this spread will probably shift south at some point. I’d be hard-pressed to bet against K.C. at the moment, with the way that defense is playing.”
Indeed, during their current run, the Chiefs have held seven opponents to 14 points or less. But Avello expects a game effort from Oakland.
“Unlike season-ending games where teams have nothing to play for and just want to call it a year, the Raiders will not be experimenting and will bring the entire arsenal,” he said. “A 6- to 7-point spread should be about right here, with K.C.’s home-field advantage.”
San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos
If Denver (10-4 SU, 8-6 ATS) doesn’t take care of business tonight at home against Cincinnati, it could be fighting for its playoff life against the Chargers. Recent performances certainly don’t bode well for the Broncos, who lost at home to Oakland in an uninspired Week 14 performance, then blew a 27-13 halftime lead at Pittsburgh in Week 15, losing 34-27 as 7.5-point pups.
San Diego (4-11 SU, 7-8 ATS) has a record that could easily be far better. The Chargers have lost seven games by a touchdown or less, including four by four points or less. That included last Thursday night’s 23-20 overtime setback catching 4 points at Oakland.
With Denver in the Monday nighter to cap Week 16, the line will have to wait on this contest. And there’s a chance that Peyton Manning might return for the regular-season finale, too.
“The Chargers have quietly been playing good ball the last couple of weeks, actually all year to some extent, but they don’t get any respect from the betting public,” Lester said. “We’ll have to be generous with the Denver side for this afternoon affair.”
Added Avello: “This one might or might not mean a thing, depending on Denver's Monday night outcome. Denver's offense has relied on its defense all year, and that defense is now starting to show signs of wear and tear.”
We’ve finally hit the last week of the regular season in the NFL, and with a host of games holding playoff ramifications, no less. Perhaps the most intriguing matchup will take place on the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field, between NFC North rivals Green Bay and Minnesota.
Both teams have already punched their postseason tickets. But the winner of this game wins the division, which comes with the No. 3 seed and a home game in the wild-card round of the playoffs. Both teams also enter this game following Week 16 blowouts, though they were on opposite sides of those results.
Green Bay (10-5 SU, 9-6 SU) went to Arizona as a 6-point underdog and got waxed by the Cardinals 38-8 Sunday. The loss halted a 4-1 SU and ATS surge by the Packers, including 3-0 SU and ATS in their previous three games.
On the flip side, in the Sunday night game, Minnesota manhandled a New York Giants squad that already knew it had nothing to play for, due to the Washington Redskins’ victory at Philadelphia on Saturday. The Vikings (10-5 SU, 12-3 ATS), with the second-best spread-covering record in the league, plowed to a 49-17 home victory laying 7 points.
The Packers and Vikings met Nov. 22 in Minnesota, with the Pack rolling 30-13 as 1-point pups, the win that started Green Bay’s 4-1 SU and ATS streak. John Lester, senior lines manager for Bookmaker.eu, had to hold off on posting a line, waiting to see how Minnesota comes out of the Sunday night game injury-wise, but he expects Green Bay to be a solid home favorite.
“A division title will be on the line, so we’re in for a great Week 17 bout,” Lester said. “The first matchup was completely one-sided, as the Vikings got behind big early, and they aren’t a team that is built to win from behind. But quarterback Teddy Bridgewater has really looked like a more confident player over the past couple of weeks. If everything goes accordingly Sunday night, the Packers will open around touchdown chalk.”
Johnny Avello, executive director of race and sports for Wynn Las Vegas, was seeing things tighter than that.
“I thought about opening this line at 5 or so, but the way Green Bay played against Arizona, and with the Packers having only two quality wins all year, I'll settle around 3 points,” Avello said. “The Vikings haven't beat the Pack in their last five meetings, but this one has more meaning than the last five combined.”
Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals (-4)
Arizona (13-2 SU, 9-6 ATS) is already guaranteed no worse than the No. 2 seed and a first-round playoff bye. But if somehow Tampa Bay beats Carolina in an early game next Sunday, the Cards could get the top seed by winning their late afternoon game against Seattle.
The Cardinals drubbed Green Bay 38-8 Sunday as 6-point home chalk for their ninth consecutive SU victory (5-4 ATS).
Seattle (9-6 SU, 7-7-1 ATS), locked into a wild-card playoff spot, was a hefty 11.5-point home fave Sunday against St. Louis, but couldn’t find a way to win, let alone cover. The Seahawks trailed 16-0 in the second quarter and ultimately lost 23-17.
Back in mid-November, Arizona went to Seattle as a 3-point pup and held on for a 39-32 outright victory.
“In meeting No. 1 this year, the Cards showed confidence as they jumped out to a big lead, fell behind and then rallied for the victory,” Avello said. “There's a changing of the guard in the NFC West, and the ‘Hawks need to play flawless to win in the desert.”
Lester pointed out that, should Carolina win, Arizona has nothing to play for.
“There was some discussion among our team to make the Cardinals a bit higher favorite, but considering there’s a chance they could sit some personnel, we settled on -4,” Lester said. “Seattle is also already in the second season and could do the same, but we aren’t anticipating that. Early money came in on the underdog, and we moved to -3 within the first half hour.”
Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (-7)
Now that Carolina has lost, Kansas City is tied with Arizona for the longest active winning streak in the NFL. The Chiefs (10-5 SU, 8-7 ATS) started out 1-5 SU and ATS, but they haven’t lost since. On Sunday, they won their ninth in a row (7-2 ATS) fending off Cleveland 17-13, though K.C. fell well short at the betting window as an 11.5-point home fave.
The Chiefs have locked up at least a wild-card bid, but could still catch or even overtake Denver and win the AFC West.
Oakland (7-8 SU and ATS) has been hit-and-miss all season, but is still far better than last year’s squad, which dropped its first 10 games en route to a 3-13 SU mark. On Thursday night, the Raiders squeaked by San Diego 23-20 in overtime, just short of cashing as a 4-point fave.
“Even though the Chiefs have clinched a playoff berth, we don’t think they’ll be diverting from the norm in Week 17, especially considering their norm is vanilla,” Lester said. “The Raiders have been a popular play among the public recently, and this spread will probably shift south at some point. I’d be hard-pressed to bet against K.C. at the moment, with the way that defense is playing.”
Indeed, during their current run, the Chiefs have held seven opponents to 14 points or less. But Avello expects a game effort from Oakland.
“Unlike season-ending games where teams have nothing to play for and just want to call it a year, the Raiders will not be experimenting and will bring the entire arsenal,” he said. “A 6- to 7-point spread should be about right here, with K.C.’s home-field advantage.”
San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos
If Denver (10-4 SU, 8-6 ATS) doesn’t take care of business tonight at home against Cincinnati, it could be fighting for its playoff life against the Chargers. Recent performances certainly don’t bode well for the Broncos, who lost at home to Oakland in an uninspired Week 14 performance, then blew a 27-13 halftime lead at Pittsburgh in Week 15, losing 34-27 as 7.5-point pups.
San Diego (4-11 SU, 7-8 ATS) has a record that could easily be far better. The Chargers have lost seven games by a touchdown or less, including four by four points or less. That included last Thursday night’s 23-20 overtime setback catching 4 points at Oakland.
With Denver in the Monday nighter to cap Week 16, the line will have to wait on this contest. And there’s a chance that Peyton Manning might return for the regular-season finale, too.
“The Chargers have quietly been playing good ball the last couple of weeks, actually all year to some extent, but they don’t get any respect from the betting public,” Lester said. “We’ll have to be generous with the Denver side for this afternoon affair.”
Added Avello: “This one might or might not mean a thing, depending on Denver's Monday night outcome. Denver's offense has relied on its defense all year, and that defense is now starting to show signs of wear and tear.”