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Post by Gooba on Dec 1, 2023 10:53:29 GMT -5
Friday’s games
Conference USA
New Mexico State @ Liberty
New Mexico State (10-3, 7-1)
— Aggies won their last eight games, after a 2-3 start.
— Aggies are 17-9 SU under coach Kill (went 8-30 from 2018-21)
— State lost 33-17 at Liberty back in September.
— State won 31-10 at Auburn two weeks ago.
— Aggies are 9-1 when they give up less than 33 points.
— 9 starters back on offense, 4 on defense
— 51 starts back on offensive line- four starters are back
— junior QB has 8 starts.
— Aggies are 12-6 ATS in last 18 games as a road underdog.
— In his career, coach Kill is 23-17 ATS as a road underdog.
— Nine of State’s last 11 games stayed under the total.
— Last year was Aggies’ first bowl since 2017.
Liberty (12-0, 8-0)
— Last 4+ years, Liberty is 46-16 SU/37-25 ATS
— Flames are 12-0 SU/8-4 ATS TY.
— 10 of Flames’ 12 wins were by 10+ points.
— Liberty is 12-11 ATS in last 23 games as home favorites (4-3 TY).
— 5 starters back on offense, 3 on defense
— you’re reading armadillosports.com
— 98 starts back on offensive line
— soph QB started four games LY.
— Last seven games, Liberty ran the ball for 324.1 yards/game.
— Flames have a +8 turnover ratio.
— Five of their last six games went over the total.
— New HC Chadwell went 39-22 coaching Coastal Carolina.
— Liberty (-9.5) beat New Mexico State 33-17 here in September.
— Flames ran for 250 yards, threw for 276; they were +2 in turnovers.
— Overall, Liberty won four of last six series games.
— New Mexico State beat Liberty 49-14 here LY.
— C-USA home favorites are 9-12 ATS this season.
— Underdogs are 4-1 ATS in last five C-USA title games.
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Post by Gooba on Dec 1, 2023 10:54:06 GMT -5
Pac-12
Oregon vs Washington (@ Las Vegas)
Oregon (11-1, 8-1)
— Oregon has scored 31+ points in every game this season.
— Nine of their 11 wins were by 14+ points.
— Ducks’ only loss was 36-33 at Washington on October 14.
— Last four games, Oregon threw ball for 421.5 yards/game.
— 8 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 96 starts back on offensive line.
— Senior QB Nix QB has 47 career starts, 34 of them at Auburn.
— Last 5+ years, Ducks are 56-17 SU.
— under Lanning, Ducks are 15-5 ATS as a favorite.
— under Lanning, Oregon is 12-5-1 ATS in Pac-12 games.
— under Lanning, Oregon is 14-4 ATS coming off a win.
— Under is 7-4 in Oregon’s I-A games.
— Ducks are 3-2 in last five bowl games; all three wins were by one point.
— Oregon is in Pac-12 title game for 4th time in last five years (2-1 L3)
Washington (12-0, 9-0)
— Washington is 9-0 SU/3-5-1 ATS in Pac-12 games.
— Huskies allowed 300+ PY in three of last five games.
— Last three games, Washington is +4 in turnovers.
— Huskies’ last three wins were by 7-2-3 points.
— 7 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 36 starts back on offensive line.
— senior QB has 30 starts; 17 here, 13 at Indiana.
— under DeBoer, Huskies are 3-0 ATS as an underdog.
— In his career, DeBoer is 4-1 ATS as an underdog.
— Washington is 17-32-1 ATS in last 50 Pac-12 tilts.
— Last year was Washington’s first bowl since 2019.
— Washington won Pac-12 title game last time they were here (2019)
— Washington (-3) beat Oregon 36-33 in Seattle in October.
— Huskies are 4-3 in last seven series games, winning last two by 3-3 points.
— Pac-12 favorites are 22-30 ATS this season.
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Post by Gooba on Dec 1, 2023 10:54:54 GMT -5
Saturday’s games
Big X
Oklahoma State vs Texas (@ Arlington, TX)
Oklahoma State (9-3, 7-2)
— Okla State won 7 of last 8 games, after a 2-2 start.
— OSU allowed 33-34-45 points in its three losses.
— Okla State is 7-3 in Big X games (average total, 61.6).
— Cowboys beat BYU 40-34 LW, after trailing 24-6 at half.
— Cowboys are minus-5 in turnovers in losses, +10 in wins.
— 7 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 129 starts back on offensive line; improvement is expected.
— senior QB Bowman has 5,329 passing yards and 34 passing TD’s in his career.
— He comes to OSU after playing at Texas Tech/Michigan.
— Cowboys are 4-1 ATS as an underdog this year
— In his career, Gundy is 35-29-2 ATS as an underdog.
— OSU is 19-9 ATS in its last 28 Big X games.
— Over is 5-2 in their last seven games.
— Cowboys were 7-6 LY, their worst season since 2018.
— Cowboys are 3-2 in last five bowls, winning by 5-3-2 points.
— OSU is 0-1 in Big 12 title tilts (lost 21-16 to Baylor in ’21)
Texas (11-1, 8-1)
— Longhorns won their last six games (3-3 ATS)
— Texas scored 26+ points in every game this year.
— Longhorns’ only loss: 34-30 (-4) vs Oklahoma.
— Texas is 5-6 ATS as a favorite this season.
— Texas gave up 300+ PY four of last six games.
— 10 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 101 starts back on offensive line
— starting QB Ewers is back in lineup
— In his career, Sarkisian is 37-29 ATS as a favorite.
— under Sarkisian, Texas is 13-14 ATS in Big X games.
— under is 6-3-1 in their last ten games.
— Texas is 4-1 in last five bowls; they were underdog is 3 of the 4 wins.
— Texas is 3-3 in Big X title games (last appearance, 2018)
— OSU won six of last eight meetings with Texas (2-2 last four)
— under is 8-5 in last 13 series games.
— underdogs are 3-2 ATS in last five Big X title games.
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Post by Gooba on Dec 1, 2023 10:55:45 GMT -5
MAC
Miami OH vs Toledo (@ Detroit)
Miami OH (10-2, 7-1)
— Red Hawks are 8-0 if they score 23+ points.
— Miami covered eight of its last ten games.
— Miami was held to 3-17 points in its two losses (Miami FL/Toledo)
— Red Hawks were held under 300 TY in five of eight MAC tilts.
— 7 starters back on offense, 9 on defense
— 61 starts back on offensive line- lost 2 starters to transfer portal.
— senior QB has 29 career starts
— Miami is 2-2 ATS as an underdog TY.
— under Martin, Miami is 33-26-1 ATS as an underdog.
— Miami was 6-7 SU LY despite a +11 turnover ratio.
— Miami is 10-2 TY, with an even turnover ratio.
— Red Hawks are 15-12 ATS in last 27 conference games.
— under is 6-2 in their last eight games.
— Miami played in bowls three of last four years, going 1-2.
— Red Hawks are 3-2 in MAC title games (last appearance, 2019)
Toledo (11-1, 8-0)
— Toledo is 11-0 since 30-28 loss in opener at Illinois.
— Toledo covered four of its last five games.
— last four games, Toledo scored 34 ppg.
— four of their eight MAC wins were by 7 or less points.
— 8 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 94 starts back on offensive line— 4 starters are back
— junior QB has 19 starts, was 2nd-team all-MAC last year.
— Toledo is 1-1 ATS as a single digit favorite TY.
— under Candle, Toledo is 30-34-1 ATS in MAC games (5-4 TY).
— since 2018, Rockets are 16-26 ATS coming off a win (5-6 TY).
— four of Rockets’ last six games stayed under the total.
— Toledo is 1-4 SU/0-5 ATS in last five bowls- they beat Liberty 21-19 LY.
— Toledo is 4-3 in MAC title games (won last year’s game)
— Toledo (-2) won 21-17 at Miami October 21.
— Rockets led 21-3 at half; they were +2 in turnovers.
— game in October was teams’ first meeting since 2011.
— under is 4-2 in last six series games.
— underdogs covered four of last five MAC title games.
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Post by Gooba on Dec 1, 2023 10:56:19 GMT -5
Mountain West
Boise State @ UNLV
Boise State (7-5, 6-2)
— Boise State fired its coach 19 days ago, still got here.
— Boise is 1-4 in games decided by 7 or less points.
— Broncos won last three games, running for 250.1 yards/game.
— Broncos are minus-2 in turnovers this season.
— Last six years, Boise was +31 in turnovers.
— Broncos allowed 31+ points in four of their five losses.
— 9 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 80 starts back on offensive line.
— soph QB has started 10 games.
— Boise is 7-9-1 ATS last 17 games as a road favorite.
— last 3 years, Broncos are 14-10-1 ATS in MW games.
— six of their last nine games went over the total.
— since 2017, Boise is 2-1 in bowls (had two cancelled)
— Boise is 3-3 in MW title games (1-3 over last five years)
UNLV (9-3, 6-2)
— UNLV is in Mountain West title game for the first time.
— Rebels gave up 35-31-37 points in their three losses.
— Rebels are 3-2 in games decided by 7 or less points.
— UNLV has gained 397+ yards in every game but Michigan loss.
— 6 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 55 starts back on offensive line, but there isn’t much depth.
— frosh QB has completed 64.1% of passes (14 TD’s, 6 INT)
— In his career, coach Odom is 4-2 ATS as home dog (1-0 TY).
— since 2021, Rebels are 5-3 ATS as a home underdog.
— UNLV is 14-10 ATS in its last 24 Mountain West games.
— Seven of their last ten games went over the total.
— Rebels are going to first bowl game since 2013.
— UNLV’s last bowl win was in 2000.
— Teams haven’t met since 2019.
— Boise won last five series games (3-2 ATS)
— Over is 3-2 in last five meetings.
— underdogs are 4-1 ATS in last five MW title games.
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Post by Gooba on Dec 1, 2023 10:57:02 GMT -5
SEC
Georgia vs Alabama (@ Atlanta)
Georgia (12-0, 8-0)
— Georgia won its last 29 games (lost SEC title game in ’21)
— Georgia is 4-6-1 against spread this season.
— Only 3 of their 12 wins were by less than 10 points.
— Dawgs allowed 20+ points in four of last eight SEC games.
— Last 3 games, Auburn ran ball for 219 yards.
— 6 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 62 starts back on offensive line.
— Last three games, Georgia ran for 300-156-262 yards.
— New QB for Georgia; he is completing 72.4%, with 22 TD’s, 6 INTs.
— Last 2+ years, Georgia is 16-12 ATS in SEC games (4-4 TY).
— three of Georgia’s last four games stayed under the total.
— Dawgs won their last six bowl games (4-2 ATS)
— Georgia is 4-6 in SEC title games (1-3 over last five years)
Alabama (11-1, 8-0)
— Alabama is 10-4 in SEC title games, 8-0 since 2009.
— Alabama won its last ten games (7-3 ATS).
— Crimson Tide’s only loss was 34-24 at home to Texas.
— Longhorns threw for 349 yards in that game.
— Alabama gave up 20+ points in its last six I-A games.
— 5 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 41 starts back on offensive line.
— since 2016, Alabama is 1-1 ATS as an underdog.
— Alabama is 25-18-1 ATS in last 44 games coming off a win.
— Crimson Tide is +5 in turnovers in its last four games.
— Alabama is 6-2 ATS in SEC games this season.
— six of their last seven games went over.
— Crimson Tide won six of its last eight bowls.
— Alabama won seven of last eight series games.
— underdogs are 7-2 ATS in last nine meetings.
— under is 6-3 in last nine meetings.
— underdogs are 3-2 ATS in SEC title games.
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Post by Gooba on Dec 1, 2023 10:57:45 GMT -5
AAC
SMU @ Tulane
SMU (10-2, 8-0)
— SMU won its last eight games (5-3 ATS), scoring 46 ppg.
— Mustangs scored 31+ points in its wins this year.
— SMU’s losses are to Big X teams: 28-11 at Oklahoma, 34-17 at TCU.
— Mustangs are 8-0 in AAC (5-3 ATS).
— last 4+ years, SMU is 41-18 SU/29-29 ATS.
— under Lashlee, Mustangs are 0-5 ATS as a road underdog.
— 8 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 123 starts back on offensive line.
— soph QB Stone has competed 59.9% of passes, with 28 TD’s, 6 INT.
— since 2017, Mustangs are 24-30 ATS in AAC (4-4 TY)
— five of SMU’s last six games went over total.
— SMU qualified for a bowl 4 of last 5 years; last bowl win, 2012.
— SMU is in AAC title game for first time.
Tulane (11-1, 8-0)
— Tulane won its last ten games since 37-20 loss to Ole Miss.
— Green Wave is 4-6 ATS in its last ten games.
— Tulane has four wins by 7 or fewer points.
— 6 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 130 starts back on offensive line.
— junior QB has 33 starts
— Tulane is 18-7 ATS last 25 games as a home favorite (2-3 ATS).
— In his career, Fritz is 29-17 ATS as a road favorite.
— Under Fritz, Green Wave is 38-28-1 ATS in league games.
— 10 of last 11 Tulane games stayed under the total.
— Tulane is 3-1 SU/ATS in its last four bowls.
— Tulane won AAC title game 45-28 LY, its first appearance in title game.
— Home team won last four AAC title games.
— SMU won seven of last eight series games (5-3 ATS)
— Mustangs are 2-3 ATS in last five visits to Tulane.
— over is 8-2 in last ten meetings.
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Post by Gooba on Dec 1, 2023 10:58:15 GMT -5
Sun Belt
Appalachian State @ Troy
Appalachian State (8-4, 6-2)
— App State won its last five games, scoring 40.4 ppg.
— ASU split its six road games SU this year.
— Last 3 years, App State is 5-0-1 ATS as a road dog (3-0 TY).
— ASU is 8-1 scoring 26+ points, 0-3 scoring 24 or less.
— 7 starters back on offense, 4 on defense
— 65 starts back on offensive line.
— junior QB played JC ball; he’s thrown 33 TD’s, 9 INT this year.
— App State covered its last four games (+6 in turnovers).
— ASU gained 500+ TY in three of last five games.
— under is 5-2 in their last seven games.
— ASU has played in bowls the last three years, its first three bowls.
— App State is 2-1 in Sun Belt title games.
Troy (10-2, 7-1)
— Troy won its last nine games (7-1 ATS last eight).
— Trojans were held to 13-14 points in their two losses.
— Troy is 9-13 ATS in last 22 games as a home favorite (2-3 TY).
— 6 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 88 starts back on offensive line.
— senior QB had 28 career starts coming into this year.
— Last three games, Troy scored 45-31-35 points.
— Last six games. Trojans are +8 in turnovers.
— under Sumrall, Trojans are 12-3 ATS in Sun Belt games.
— Troy’s last three games went over the total.
— Troy won its last five bowls, dating back to 2010.
— Troy won Sun Belt title game LY, its first appearance.
— App State won five in row, seven of last eight series games.
— ASU won/covered three of last four visits to Troy.
— over is 6-2 in last eight meetings.
— Favorites are 2-2 ATS in last four Sun Belt title games.
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Post by Gooba on Dec 1, 2023 10:59:08 GMT -5
Big 14
Michigan vs Iowa (@ Indianapolis)
Michigan (12-0, 9-0)
— Wolverines are 9-0 SU/6-2-1 ATS in Big 14 games.
— their last three wins were by 9-7-6 points.
— Michigan is 4-5-1 ATS as a double digit favorite TY.
— Last three games, Michigan was held to 305.3 ypg.
— 8 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 145 starts back on offensive line.
— junior QB McCarthy has 13 career starts (22 TD passes, 5 INT LY).
— Last 2+ years, Michigan is 18-8-2 ATS in conference games.
— Michigan is 20-13-3 ATS in last 34 games coming off a win.
— seven of last eight Michigan games went over the total.
— Michigan is 1-4 SU/0-5 ATS in last five bowls, giving up 40.3 ppg in last four
— Michigan is 2-0 in Big 14 title games (42-3/43-22- last two years)
Iowa (10-2, 7-2)
— Iowa won its last four games, giving up 7.5 ppg.
— Hawkeyes’ two losses 31-7 @ Penn State, 12-10 vs Minnesota.
— Iowa has four wins where they scored 15 or fewer points.
— Hawkeyes gained 291 or less TY in 10 of 12 games.
— 9 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 114 starts back on offensive line
— Iowa QB McNamara tore his ACL, is out for year.
— soph backup QB is completing 48.3% of passes (5 TD, 6 INTs)
— Iowa is 8-4 ATS in last 12 games as an underdog (2-1 TY).
— Hawkeyes are 30-16-1 ATS in last 47 games coming off a win.
— Iowa is 20-14-1 ATS in last 35 conference games.
— under is 7-0 in their last seven games.
— Iowa won four of its last five bowl games (5-0 ATS)
— Hawkeyes are 0-2 in Big 14 title game, losing 16-13/42-3.
— Michigan won/covered last three meetings, by total of 79-20.
— Wolverines covered five of last six series games.
— four of last five meetings stayed under the total.
— favorites are 3-2 ATS in last five Big 14 title games.
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Post by Gooba on Dec 1, 2023 10:59:57 GMT -5
ACC
Louisville vs Florida State (@ Charlotte)
Louisville (10-2, 7-1)
— Louisville won four of its last five games.
— Cardinals gave up 38 points in both losses (Pitt/Kentucky)
— Louisville has five wins by 7 or fewer points.
— last four games, Louisville scored 34-31-38-31 points.
— Cardinals are 9-19-1 ATS last 29 games as an underdog (0-1 TY).
— Louisville is 7-0 ATS in last seven games coming off a loss.
— 6 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 150 starts back on offensive line.
— senior QB started 12 games at Cal last year.
— In his career, Brohm is 26-16-1 ATS as an underdog.
— last three Louisville games went over the total.
— Cardinals went bowling five of last seven years (2-3).
— Louisville is in ACC title game for the first time.
Florida State (12-0, 8-0)
— FSU QB Travis is out for the year.
— backup QB Rodemaker was 12-25/134 in his first start LW.
— Seminoles allowed 14 ppg in their last three I-A games.
— Last three I-A games, FSU is +4 in turnovers.
— Seminoles have three wins by 7 or less points.
— 8 starters back on offense, 9 on defense
— 206 starts back on offensive line; ton of experience.
— soph backup QB is 25-48/351 passing, since Travis got hurt.
— Seminoles are 3-0 ATS TY in games with single digit spread.
— in his career, Norvell is 38-30 ATS as a favorite
— under Norvell, FSU is 16-16 ATS in the ACC.
— under is 3-1 in their last four games.
— Seminoles went bowling LY for first time since 2019
— FSU has played in one bowl since 2019 (3-1 last four SU)
— FSU is 4-1 in ACC title games, but last one was in 2014.
— teams split last eight series games.
— favorites covered last four series games.
— over is 7-2 in last nine meetings.
— favorites covered last five ACC title games.
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Post by Gooba on Dec 2, 2023 9:44:29 GMT -5
The Longhorns shot from -11.5 to -14 Sunday night, then hit -14.5 Monday in BetMGM's college football odds Week 14 market. Texas advanced to -15.5 Thursday morning.
However, it's two-way spread play, with 56% of tickets on Oklahoma State/59% of money on Texas.
The total opened at 53.5 Sunday, peaked at 56.5 Monday morning and has been at various iterations of 55.5 much of the week. It's currently 55.5 (Under -115), with 77% of tickets/68% of money on the Over.
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Post by Gooba on Dec 2, 2023 9:46:24 GMT -5
Georgia - Alabama
It's one-way traffic on the Bulldogs. Lot of money coming in for Georgia," Magee said. "Sharps pushed this from 4.5 to 5.5 this week. Bama winning the game would be good for the book, but I am still wary of our huge liability on the Tide to win it all.
"The dream scenario right now for BetMGM is a Bama cover and loss, to take the Georgia game money and Alabama futures money."
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Post by Gooba on Dec 2, 2023 9:50:28 GMT -5
“The public is riding the College Football Playoff's top-ranked teams. We'd love for Louisville to upset Florida State and for Iowa to cover against Michigan," BetMGM trader Seamus Magee said.
Mirroring the spread, the total plunged from a 53.5 opener to 46.5 this afternoon. Like the spread, there were stops along the way all week long. Ticket count is 2/1 and money almost 8/1 on the Under.
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