Sunday’s games
Broncos @ Jets (-7.5)
Broncos (1-2)
Denver is 2-0 ATS as a road dog TY; visitor is 3-0 ATS in their games.
Broncos outscored last two opponents 12-3 in second half.
Denver is only 11-43 on third down conversions.
Team total: over 2-1
Opponents’ team total: under 2-1
Under Payton, Denver is 4-5 ATS as a road underdog (2-0 TY)..
Denver held last two opponents to 251/223 yards.
Rookie QB Nix hasn’t thrown TD pass yet, has four INT’s.
Broncos are 8-16 ATS in last 24 games coming off a win.
Under is 16-10 in their last 26 road games.
Jets (2-1)
Jets won last two games, giving up 2 TD’s on 19 drives.
Jets have converted 21-37 third down plays.
Jets last two opponents were 7-23 on third down.
Team total: over 2-0-1
Opponents’ team total: under 2-1
Under Saleh, Jets are 12-15 ATS at home
Since 2021, Jets are 6-11-1 ATS coming off a win.
Rodgers is 161-86-1 as an NFL starter.
Under is 12-6 in their last 18 home games.
Jets’ OC Hackett was 4-11 as Denver’s coach in ’22, quickly got fired.
Jets won 31-21/16-9 at Denver the last two years.
Broncos are 2-4 ATS in last six visits to the Garden State
Over is 6-4 in last ten series games.
Vikings @ Packers (-2.5)
Vikings (3-0)
Minnesota won first three games, giving up three TD’s on 31 drives.
Vikings have outscored opponents 41-10 in first half.
Last six years, Vikings were 8-10 ATS in NFC North road games.
Team total: over 3-0
Opponents’ team total: under 3-0
QB Darnold is 24-35 as an NFL starter, 3-0 with Vikings.
Vikings are 7-1-1 ATS in last nine games coming off a win.
Under O’Connell, Minnesota is 4-4-1 ATS as a home underdog.
Vikings are 13-10-3 ATS in last 26 games with spread of 3 or less points.
Minnesota has two takeaways in all three games (+2 turnovers)
Packers (2-1)
Sounds like QB Love might be back under center this week.
Packers won last two games, giving up 3 TD’s on 19 drives.
Green Bay outscored last two foes 30-7 in first half.
Team total: over 2-1
Opponents’ team total: under 2-1
First three games, Packers ran ball for 163/261/188 yards.
Green Bay is 21-13-1 ATS in last 35 games as a home favorite.
Last five years, Green Bay was 10-5 in NFC North home games.
Former Boston College HC Hafley is Green Bay’s new DC.
First two games, opponents are 9-32 on third down.
Teams split last eight series games.
Vikings are 3-3-1 SU/3-4 ATS in last seven visits to Lambeau.
Under is 2-0-1 in last three meetings.
Saints @ Falcons (-2.5)
Saints (2-1)
Saints scored 47-44 points in wins, lost 15-12 at home LW.
New Orleans has outscored opponents 68-19 in first half.
Saints are 15-5-1 ATS last 21 games as a road underdog.
Team total: over 2-1
Opponents’ team total: under 3-0
Last six years, Saints are 12-5-1 ATS in AFC South road games.
First two games, Saints ran ball for 180/190 yards; LW, only 89.
Last five years, New Orleans is 19-12-1 ATS coming off a loss.
QB Carr is 74-89 as an NFL starter.
Under is 16-10 in their last 26 road games.
Falcons (1-2)
Atlanta is 0-2 at home, scoring three TD’s on 18 drives.
Falcons were in red zone last two drives LW, didn’t score on either one.
Falcons are 6-27 on third down, opponents 20-44.
Team total: under 2-1
Opponents’ team total: under 3-0
Atlanta is 4-14-1 ATS last 19 games as a home favorite.
Falcons are 8-11-1 ATS last 20 games coming off a loss.
Last two years, Atlanta is 4-2 ATS in NFC South home games.
New QB Cousins is 78-72-2 as an NFL starter.
Raheem Morris is 22-40 as an NFL head coach.
Saints won nine of last 12 series games.
Falcons covered four of last five meetings.
Saints won five of last six visits to Atlanta.
Over is 4-2 in last six series games.
Eagles (-2.5) @ Buccaneers
Eagles (2-1)
Eagles’ three games were decided by total of nine points.
Eagles didn’t score on first 6 drives LW, scored TD’s on last 2 drives.
Team total: under 2-1
Opponents’ team total: over 2-1
Philly is 9-4-1 ATS in last 14 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Under Sirianni, Eagles are 7-10-1 ATS as a road favorite.
QB Hurts is 38-21 as an NFL starter.
Under Sirianni, Eagles are 16-17-2 ATS coming off a win.
Opponents have converted only 11-33 third down plays.
Buccaneers (2-1)
First three games, Tampa Bay gave up 138-139-136 rushing yards.
Last two games, Bucs were held to 216-223 total yards.
Bucs are 5-21 on third down their last two games.
Team total: under 2-1
Opponents’ team total: over 2-1
Last three years, Bucs were 1-4 ATS a home underdog.
QB Mayfield is 44-49 as an NFL starter, 12-10 with Buccaneers.
Tampa Bay is 10-8-2 in last 20 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Under is 7-3 in last ten Tampa Bay home games.
Bucs are 4-10-2 ATS in last 16 games coming off a loss.
Tampa Bay (+3) beat Philly 32-9 in playoffs last year.
Buccaneers won five of last six series games.
Eagles are 1-3 SU/ATS in last four visits to Tampa.
Under is 3-1 in last four meetings.
Bengals (-6) @ Panthers
Bengals (0-2)
Bengals are 0-3, losing by 6-1-5 points.
Bengals scored 25-33 points last two games (6 TD’s on 16 drives).
Team total: over 1-1
Opponents’ team total: under 1-0-1
Bengals are 9-6 ATS in last 15 games as a road favorite.
QB Burrow is 34-27-1 as an NFL starter.
Last 4+ years, Cincinnati is 17-12-1 ATS coming off a loss.
Washington scored on every drive against them last week.
Bengals are 7-2-2 ATS last 11 games vs NFC opponents.
Panthers (1-2)
Carolina scored 36 points LW, scored 10-3 points in weeks 1-2.
Switching to veteran QB Dalton made a huge difference.
Dalton is 84-82-2 as an NFL starter, mostly with Cincinnati.
Team total: under 2-1
Opponents’ team total: over 2-1
Carolina outgained Las Vegas 437-331 last week.
Panthers are 7-5-2 ATS in last 14 games as a home underdog.
Last 3+ years, Carolina is 6-11 ATS vs AFC opponents.
Panthers are 7-34 on third down, opponents 19-40.
Dalton averaged 7.8 yards/pass attempt LW (3.9/2.5 weeks 1-2).
Dalton was 70-65-2 as Cincy’s QB from 2011-19.
Cincinnati is 3-1-1 in last five series games.
Bengals lost two of last three visits to Charlotte.
Jaguars @ Texans (-4.5)
Jaguars (0-3)
Jaguars lost first three games, scoring four TD’s on 29 drives.
In three games, Jaguars are 7-32 on third down.
Last two games, Jaguars were outscored 47-6 in first half.
Team total: under 3-0
Opponents’ team total: under 2-1
Jacksonville has been outscored 22-3 in last 2:00 of each half.
First three games, Lawrence averaged only 5.8/5.8/2.9 yards/pass attempt.
QB Lawrence is 21-34 as an NFL starter.
Under Pederson, Jaguars are 10-10 ATS as an underdog.
Last two years, Jaguars are 4-2 ATS in AFC South road games.
Texans (2-1)
Last two games, Texans scored two TD’s on 22 drives.
Houston’s two wins were by 2-6 points.
Last two games, Texans ran ball for 75-38 yards.
Team total: under 2-1
Opponents’ team total: over 2-1
Texans are 4-12 ATS last 16 games as home favorites.
Under Ryans, Houston is 5-2 ATS in games coming off a loss.
2nd-year QB Stroud is 12-8 as an NFL starter.
Last two years, Texans were 2-4 ATS in AFC South home games.
Houston is 5-12-1 ATS in last 18 games vs NFC opponents.
Last two games, Texas converted 8-28 on third down.
Texans won 10 of last 12 meetings.
Jaguars won 24-21/31-3 in last two visits to Houston.
Road team won last four meetings.
Under is 3-1 in last four series games.
Steelers (-2) @ Colts
Steelers (3-0)
Steelers won first three games, allowing two TD’s on 27 drives.
Pittsburgh is +4 in turnovers in its first three games.
All three Steeler games stayed under the total.
Team total: under 3-0
Opponents’ team total: under 3-0
Steelers have only three TD’s on 30 drives (10 field goals).
QB Fields is 13-28 as an NFL starter (3-0 with Steelers).
Pittsburgh is 11-6-1 in its last 18 games coming off a win.
Steelers are 14-6-1 ATS in last 21 games with spread of 3 or less points.
Last 3+ years, Steelers are 3-1 ATS as a road favorite.
Colts (1-2)
Colts got their first win week LW, after losses by 2-6 points.
First three games, Indy was outgained by 82.7 yards/game.
Indy has averaged 9.5/5.7/7.4 yards per pass attempt.
Team total: under 2-1
Opponents’ team total: under 2-1
Indy is 16-16 ATS in last 32 games coming off a win.
2nd-year QB Richardson is 3-4 as an NFL starter.
Under Steichen, Colts are 5-5 ATS as a home underdog.
Under Steichen, Colts are 9-5 ATS in games with spread of 3 or less points.
Last two weeks, Colts ran ball for 140-150 yards.
Pittsburgh won eight of last nine series games.
Steelers are 4-1 SU/2-3 ATS in last five visits to Indy.
Last four meetings went over the total.
Rams @ Bears (-1.5)
Rams (1-2)
Rams got first win LW, rallying back from early 14-0 deficit.
Rams have been outscored 48-13 in first half of games.
Under McVay, Rams are 29-35-2 ATS coming off a win.
Team total: under 2-1
Opponents’ team total: over 2-1
Rams have been outrushed 531-234 in three games.
Rams are 12-35 on third down, opponents 19-43.
LA is 4-9-2 ATS in its last 15 games as a road dog.
Rams are 2-6-2 ATS in last 10 games with spread of 3 or less points.
QB Stafford is 29-20 as Rams’ QB (was 74-93-1 with Detroit).
Bears (1-2)
Bears scored three offensive TD on 32 drives in first three games.
Chicago was outscored 40-13 in first half of those games.
Bears outscored opponents 40-17 in second half of those games.
Team total: under 2-0-1
Opponents’ team total: under 3-0
Under Eberflus, Bears are 3-3-1 ATS as home favorites.
Chicago converted 9-21 third down plays LW (8-30 first two games).
Bears are 4-8-2 ATS in last 14 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Rookie QB Williams averaged 3.0/3.0/5.9 yards/pass in his three games.
Bears scored TD’s on pick-6, blocked punt in their only win.
Rams won last three meetings, all by 10+ points.
Rams lost last three visits to Chicago (last visit, 2018)
Under is 3-1 in last four series games.
Commanders @ Cardinals (-5.5)
Commanders (2-1)
Short week/long travel for Commanders after Monday nite win.
Washington won last two games, scoring 21-38 points.
Last two games, Commanders scored 5 TD’s, kicked 8 FG’s on 13 drives.
Team total: over 2-1
Opponents’ team total: over 2-1
Commanders are 7-3 ATS last ten games as a road underdog.
Washington converted 12 of last 23 third down plays.
Commanders are 17-9-1 ATS in last 27 games coming off a win.
Washington OC Kingsbury was Cardinals’ head coach from 2019-22.
Opponents converted 19-31 third down plays.
Cardinals (1-2)
Arizona lost 20-13 LW, after scoring 7 TD’s in first two games.
Cardinals ran ball for 77 yards LW (124-231 first two games).
Team total: over 2-1
Opponents’ team total: under 2-1
QB Murray is 29-39-1 SU as an NFL starter.
Last 2+ years, Cardinals are 2-1 ATS as a home favorite.
LW, Arizona converted 1-9 on third down (14-24 first two games).
Arizona is 15-11 ATS in last 26 games coming off a loss.
Washington won three of last four series games.
Commanders lost three of last four visits to Arizona.
Last four meetings stayed under the total.
Patriots @ 49ers (-10.5)
Patriots (1-2)
Patriots have scored only three TD’s on their first 28 drives.
New England has averaged 4.8/4.2/1.8 yards/pass attempt.
Patriots are 30-41 since Brady left town.
Team total: over 1-1-1
Opponents’ team total: over 2-1
New England is 10-13 ATS last 23 games as a road underdog.
New England gave up 23-24 points in losing their last two games.
Patriots were 8-27 on third down in those games.
Patriots are 0-5-1 ATS in last six games vs NFC teams.
Patriots QB Brissett is 19-32 as an NFL starter.
49ers (1-2)
49ers lost their last two games, giving up 23-27 points.
49ers outgained Rams 425-296 LW, but their special teams got riddled.
Team total: under 2-1
Opponents’ team total: over 2-0-1
49ers are 9-7 ATS in last sixteen games off a loss.
QB Purdy is 22-7 as an NFL starter.
San Francisco is 11-6 ATS last 17 games as a home favorite.
49ers are 4-8 ATS in last 12 games vs AFC opponents.
49ers have averaged 6.9/7.1/9.3 yards/pass attempt.
Road team won last four meetings.
Patriots won 30-17/30-21 in last two visits here.
Under is 3-2 in last five series games.
Browns @ Raiders (-3)
Browns (1-2)
Cleveland scored 17-18-15 points in its 1-2 start.
Browns are 8-43 on 3rd down so far, 7-11 on 4th down.
Browns have gained 230-297-217 yards in their three games.
Team total: under 3-0
Opponents’ team total: over 2-1
Browns won their only road game; visitors are 3-0 ATS in their games.
QB Watson is 38-33 as an NFL starter, 9-6 with Browns.
Cleveland is 11-3-1 ATS in last 15 games coming off a loss.
Cleveland is 6-4 ATS in last 10 games with spread of 3 or less points.
Browns have averaged 2.74.8/3.3 yards/pass attempt. .
Raiders (1-2)
Raiders have given up 22-23-36 points in their 1-2 start.
Las Vegas is 14-18-1 ATS in last 33 games following a loss.
Raiders have converted only 12-37 third down plays.
Team total: under 2-1
Opponents’ team total: over 2-1
Last 2+ years, Raiders are 9-4 ATS as a home favorite.
Raiders are 10-6-1 ATS in their last 17 home games.
First three games, Las Vegas was outrushed by 72 yards/game.
Las Vegas is 14-18-1 ATS in last 33 games following a loss.
QB Minshew is 16-24 as an NFL starter; Raiders are his 4th team.
This is teams’ first meeting wince 2021.
Raiders won last four meetings (3-1 ATS)
Browns lost three of last four visits to Oakland.
This is Browns’ first visit to Las Vegas.
Under is 6-2 in last eight series games.
Chiefs (-7.5) @ Chargers
Chiefs (3-0)
Chiefs won their first three games, by 7-1-5 points.
Kansas City wis 3-0 despite being minus-4 in turnovers.
Chiefs were down 16-10/14-13 at halftime of last two games.
Team total: under 3-0
Opponents’ team total: over 2-1
Last 4+ years, KC is 14-16-1 ATS as a road favorite.
QB Mahomes is 92-25 as an NFL starter.
Chiefs are 9-6 ATS in last 15 AFC West road games.
Last two weeks, Chiefs converted 7-22 third down plays.
Over is 16-10 in their last 26 road games.
Chargers (2-1)
QB Herbert re-injured his ankle last week; check status.
Backup QB Heinicke is 13-15-1 as an NFL starter.
Bolts are 17-25-2 ATS in last 44 games coming off a loss.
Team total: over 2-1
Opponents’ team total: under 2-1
Last 5+ years, Chargers are 5-7-1 ATS as home underdogs.
Chargers outrushed first three opponents, 456-275.
Chargers are 6-4 ATS in last 10 AFC West home games.
QB Herbert is 32-34 as an NFL starter.
Under is 3-0 in their first three games.
Chiefs won 17 of last 20 series games.
Chiefs are 10-0 SU/8-2 ATS in last ten road series games.
Bills @ Ravens (-2.5)
Bills (3-0)
Bills won their first three games, scoring 34-31-47 points.
Buffalo outscored first three opponents 44-18 in second half.
Bills have scored 13 TD’s on their first 26 drives.
Team total: over 3-0
Opponents’ team total: under 2-1
Buffalo is 9-3-2 ATS in last 14 games as a road underdog.
Bills are 25-18-2 ATS in last 45 games coming off a win
QB Allen is 71-35 as NFL starter.
Bills have scored 65 points despite being 6-18 on third down.
Buffalo outscored first three foes 17-3 in last 2:00 of each half.
Ravens (1-2)
Baltimore’s first three games were decided by total of 13 points.
Ravens have been outscored 53-31 in second half.
Ravens are 17-4 ATS in last 21 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Team total: under 2-1
Opponents’ team total: over 3-0
Ravens are 8-14 ATS in last 22 games as a home favorite.
Over is 6-1 in Baltimore’s last seven regular season games.
QB Jackson is 61-25 as an NFL starter.
Baltimore is 14-17 ATS in last 31 games coming off a win.
This year, Ravens have run the ball for 185-151-274 yards.
Buffalo won last two meetings, 23-20/17-3
Bills are 1-5 ATS in last six visits to Baltimore.
Under is 5-1 in last six series games.
