Sunday’s games
Patriots vs Jaguars (-5.5) (@ London)
Patriots (1-5)
New England lost last five games, outscored 68-33 in first half.
Last two weeks, Patriots gave up 193-192 rushing yards.
Patriots are 30-44 since Tom Brady left town.
Team total: under 3-2-1
Opponents’ team total: over 4-2
NE is 7-19-1 ATS in last 27 games as an underdog.
Last 4 games, New England converted 14 of 53 third down plays.
Patriots were 0-4 against the spread in those games.
Patriots are 4-12 ATS in last 16 games coming off a loss.
Rookie QB Maye is 0-1 as an NFL starter.
AFC East underdogs are 1-7-1 ATS in non-divisional games.
Jaguars (1-5)
Jaguars are 1-5; they gained 497 yards (371 PY) in their one win.
Under Pederson, Jaguars are 8-9 ATS coming off a loss.
Last five games, Jaguars were outscored 88-35 in first half.
Team total: under 4-2
Opponents’ team total: under 3-3
Jacksonville has been outscored 42-9 in last 2:00 of each half.
Under Pederson, Jaguars are 8-11 ATS as a favorite.
QB Lawrence is 22-36 as an NFL starter.
Three of their last four games went over the total.
Jaguars ware 3-2 in their last five games in England.
AFC South favorites are 3-5 ATS in non-divisional games.
New England won nine of last ten series games.
This is first time since 2006 Patriots are an underdog to Jacksonville.
Underdogs are 5-3 ATS in last eight meetings.
Over is 3-1 in last four series games.
Titans @ Bills (-8.5)
Titans (1-4)
Titans scored 17 or fewer points in their losses; their win was 31-12.
Tennessee is minus-7 in turnovers, have had two punts blocked.
Titans were held under 250 TY in four of their five games.
Team total: under 4-1
Opponents’ team total: over 2-1-2
Tennessee is 3-6 ATS in last nine games as a road underdog.
Titans has trailed in only one of their five games at halftime.
Tennessee was 17-15-1 ATS LY in 33 games coming off a loss.
QB Levis is 4-10 as an NFL starter.
Tennessee has averaged 5.3/5.3/4.9/4.6/3.5 yards/pass attempt.
Bills (4-2)
Short week for Bills after their tense win over the Jets Monday.
Buffalo acquired WR Cooper from Cleveland on Monday.
Bills were outgained last three games, by 191-149-34 yards.
Team total: over 4-2
Opponents’ team total: under 3-3
Buffalo is 8-10-1 ATS in last 19 games as a home favorite.
Bills are 25-19-1 ATS in last 45 games coming off a win.
QB Allen is 72-37 as NFL starter.
Last three games, Bills converted only 11 of 38 third down plays.
Last three games, Buffalo allowed 7.8/8.5/7.2 yards/pass attempt.
AFC East teams are 3-10-1 ATS in last 14 non-divisional games.
Buffalo won four of last six series games.
Texans lost 41-7/13-12 in last two visits to Buffalo.
Over is 3-1 in last four meetings.
Texans @ Packers (-2.5)
Texans (5-1)
Texans have four wins by 6 or fewer points.
Their only loss was 34-7 at 5-0 Minnesota.
Texans converted 19 of last 40 third down plays.
Team total: under 4-2
Opponents’ team total: over 4-2
Texans are 9-4-1 ATS in last 14 games as a road underdog
Houston is 6-9 ATS in last 15 games coming off a win.
2nd-year QB Stroud is 15-8 as an NFL starter.
Houston is 5-14-2 ATS in last 21 games vs NFC teams.
Under is 4-1 in their last five games.
AFC South underdogs are 3-5 ATS in non-divisional games.
Packers (4-2)
Green Bay’s two losses were 34-29/31-29.
Packers have 17 takeaways in five games (+9 turnovers)
Green Bay outscored last four foes 56-19 in second half.
Team total: over 4-2
Opponents’ team total: under 4-2
Green Bay is 6-7-1 ATS in last 14 games as a home favorite.
Green Bay is 17-12-1 ATS in last 30 games coming off a win.
Packers are 16-12-1 ATS last 29 games vs AFC teams.
Green Bay is 27-16-1 ATS in last 44 home games.
Under is 37-4 in their last 11 home games.
NFC North teams are 17-4 ATS in non-divisional games.
Green Bay won/covered its last three games vs Houston.
Teams split last two meetings played here; Texans’ win was in 2008.
Under is 4-1 in series games.
Eagles (-3) @ Giants
Eagles (3-2)
Four of Eagles’ five games were decided by 5 or fewer points.
Eagles are minus-6 in turnovers (8-2) this season.
Philly has led only one game at halftime (7-6 in week 2).
Team total: under 4-1
Opponents’ team total: over 3-2
Last four years, Philly is 2-9-1 ATS in NFC East road games.
Under Sirianni, Eagles are 7-11-1 ATS as a road favorite.
QB Hurts is 39-22 as an NFL starter.
Under Sirianni, Eagles are 16-18-2 ATS in games coming off a win.
Under is 3-1 in their last four games.
Giants (2-4)
Giants are 0-2 at home (28-6 Vikings, 20-15 Cowboys, 17-7 Bengals)
Giants has one TD on 29 drives in their three home games.
Under is 5-1 in their games this season.
Team total: under 4-2
Opponents’ team total: under 4-2
Under Daboll, Giants are 8-5-1 ATS as a home underdog.
Under Daboll, Giants are 14-6-1 ATS coming off a loss.
Since 2018, Giants are 8-11 ATS in NFC East home games.
QB Jones is 25-41-1 as an NFL starter.
Opponents are only 24-70 on third down.
Eagles are 18-4 in last 22 games against the Giants.
Philly is 3-5 ATS (3-4 as a favorite) in last seven visits here.
Under is 7-3 in last ten series games.
Lions @ Vikings (-2.5)
Lions (4-1)
Lions scored 42-47 points in last two games (11 TDs on 20 drives).
Detroit has converted 26 of 54 third down plays.
Opponents have converted 16 of 54 third down plays.
Team total: under 3-2
Opponents’ team total: under 4-1
Under Campbell, Lions are 21-10 ATS as a road underdog.
Lions outscored last three opponents 72-23 in first half.
Last two years, Detroit was 5-1 ATS in NFC North road games.
Under Campbell, Detroit is 16-8 ATS in games coming off a win.
Last two weeks, Lions averaged 12.4/10.3 yards/pass attempt.
Lions have outscored opponents 24-6 in last 2:00 of each half.
Vikings (5-0)
Minnesota won/covered first five games, scoring 27.8 ppg.
Vikings have outscored opponents 86-24 in first half.
Last two years, Vikings were 1-5 ATS in NFC North home games
Team total: over 5-0
Opponents’ team total: under 4-1
QB Darnold is 26-35 as an NFL starter, 5-0 with Vikings.
Minnesota is 5-4 SU/4-4-1 ATS in last nine post-bye games.
Vikings are 9-1-1 ATS in last 11 games coming off a win.
Vikings are 15-10-3 ATS in last 28 games with spread of 3 or less points.
Minnesota has 13 takeaways in five games (+4 turnovers).
Detroit won four of last six meetings.
Lions lost five of last six visits to Minnesota (3-0 ATS last three).
Over is 7-1-1 in last nine series games.
Seahawks @ Falcons (-3)
Seahawks (3-3)
Seattle lost last three games, giving up 42-29-36 points.
QB’s they beat so far: Nix, Brissett, Thompson. Not great.
Seahawks turned ball over 8 times in last 4 games (minus-7 TO’s)
Team total: over 6-0
Opponents’ team total: over 5-1
QB Smith is 33-40 as an NFL starter, 21-21 with Seattle.
Seahawks are 16-10-1 ATS last 27 games as a road underdog.
Seahawks are 18-15 in last 33 games coming off a loss.
Last three games, Seattle was outscored 47-20 in first half.
Seattle is 14-16-3 ATS in last 33 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Over is 5-1 in their games this season.
NFC West underdogs are 1-7 ATS in non-divisional games.
Falcons (4-2)
Atlanta won its last three games, scoring 26-36-38 points.
Falcons were held to 10-17 points in their two losses.
Falcons’ last three games went over the total.
Team total: over 4-2
Opponents’ team total: under 3-2-1
Atlanta is 5-15-1 ATS last 21 games as a home favorite.
Falcons are 3-7 ATS last ten games coming off a win.
QB Cousins is 81-72-2 as an NFL starter.
Falcons are 5-13 ATS in last 18 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Falcon opponents are 38-79 on third down.
NFC South home teams are 2-6 ATS in non-divisional games.
Seahawks won four of last six series games.
Seattle is 5-1 SU/4-2 ATS in last six visits to Atlanta.
Over is 4-1 in last five meetings.
Bengals (-6.5) @ Browns
Bengals (2-4)
Cincy is 2-4, with both wins on road, by 10 points.
Bengals scored 25+ points in four of last five games.
Last two games, Bengals scored 15 TD’s on 39 drives.
Team total: over 4-2
Opponents’ team total: over 3-2-1
Bengals are 11-6 ATS in last 17 games as a road favorite.
QB Burrow is 36-28-1 as an NFL starter.
Cincinnati is 13-5-1 ATS in last 19 games coming off a win.
Over is 4-1 in their last five games.
Bengals are 6-8-1 ATS last 15 AFC North road games.
Browns (1-5)
Cleveland scored 17-18-15-16-13-16 points in its 1-5 start.
Browns are 15-78 on 3rd down so far, 10-16 on 4th down.
Browns have gained 230-297-217-152-215-244 yards.
Team total: under 6-0
Opponents’ team total: over 4-2
Browns are 5-2-1 ATS last eight games as a home underdog.
QB Watson is 38-36 as an NFL starter, 9-9 with Browns.
Cleveland is 12-4-1 ATS in last 17 games coming off a loss.
Cleveland is 5-1 ATS in last six AFC North games.
Browns have averaged 2.7/4.8/3.3/4.3/3.0/5.1 yards/pass attempt.
Browns are 9-3 SU in last 12 meetings.
Bengals are 0-6 SU/2-3-1 ATS in last six visits to Cleveland.
Over is 6-2-2 in last ten series games.
Dolphins @ Colts (-3.5)
Dolphins (2-3)
Miami allowed 17-10 points in its wins, 31-24-31 in losses.
Dolphins have already played four QB’s in their 2-3 start.
Huntley is 4-8 as an NFL starter.
Team total: under 5-0
Opponents’ team total: over 3-2
Last four games, Dolphins have three touchdowns on 43 drives.
Miami has been outscored 74-26 in first half of games.
Miami is 6-9 ATS in last 15 games as a road underdog.
Last three games, Dolphins were 5-35 on 3rd down.
Under McDaniel, Miami is 11-10 ATS in games coming off a win.
AFC East road underdogs are 1-5 ATS in non-divisional games.
Colts (3-3)
All six Colts games were decided by 6 or fewer points.
Colts’ last three games were all decided by exactly 3 points.
Indy won three of its last four games (3-0-1 ATS)
Team total: over 3-2-1
Opponents’ team total: over 3-3
Last three weeks, Colts converted 22-44 third down plays.
Indy is 12-11-1 ATS in last 24 games coming off a win.
Flacco is 114-89 as an NFL starter, 6-10 since 2020.
Under Steichen, Colts are 3-1 ATS as a home favorite.
Just like LY, Indy is better off with its backup QB than Richardson.
AFC South home favorites are 3-5 ATS in non-divisional games.
Colts won seven of last nine series games.
Dolphins are 5-3 SU/7-1 ATS in last eight visits to Indianapolis.
Under is 4-2 in last six meetings.
Panthers @ Commanders (-7.5)
Panthers (1-5)
Carolina’s five losses are by 37-23-10-26-18 points.
Carolina is 2-9-1 ATS last 12 games as a road underdog.
Panthers gave up 20+ points in first half in five of six games.
Team total: under 3-2-1
Opponents’ team total: over 5-1
Carolina is 4-13-2 ATS in last 19 games coming off a loss.
Last three weeks, Panthers allowed 7.5/9.9/7.5 yards/pass play.
Over is 5-1 in Carolina games this year.
Panthers opponents are 36-76 on third down.
Dalton is 84-85-2 as an NFL starter, 1-4 with Carolina.
Commanders (4-2)
Commanders won/covered four of their last five games.
Washington allowed 37-30 points in their two losses.
Last five games, Commanders scored 16 TD’s, kicked 16 FG’s on 43 drives.
Team total: over 5-1
Opponents’ team total: under 3-3
Commanders are 2-0 ATS as a favorite TY (5-14 from 2018-23).
Washington converted 33 of last 64 third down plays.
Commanders are 12-18-1 ATS in last 31 games coming off a loss.
Washington ran ball for 200+ yards in three of its four wins.
Over is 5-1 in Washington games this year.
Commanders won three of last four meetings.
Panthers won three of last four visits to Washington.
Underdogs are 6-1 ATS in last seven series games.
Raiders @ Rams (-7)
Raiders (2-4)
Raiders have 12 turnovers in six games (minus-10).
Las Vegas is 10-9-1 ATS in last 20 games following a loss.
Raiders’ two wins were by 3-4 points, losses by 12-14-16-19.
Team total: over 3-3
Opponents’ team total: over 4-2
Since 2019, Raiders are 19-13 ATS as a road underdog.
Raiders are 6-9-1 ATS in last 16 games vs NFC teams.
Opponents have converted only 22 of 73 third down plays.
QB O’Connell is 5-6 as an NFL starter.
Over is 4-1 in their last five games.
Rams (1-4)
Rams have been outscored 68-32 in first half of games.
Even in their one win, they trailed 14-0 early on.
Under McVay, Rams are 4-3 SU/3-4 ATS coming off a bye.
Team total: under 4-1
Opponents’ team total: over 3-2
Under McVay, Rams are 21-22 ATS as a home favorite.
Rams have allowed 24+ points in all five games.
LA is 7-10-2 ATS in its last 19 games vs AFC teams.
Rams outgained last two opponents, by 58-47 yards.
Three of Rams’ last four games went over the total.
Rams won three in row, six of last seven series games.
Under is 5-1 in last six meetings.
Chiefs @ 49ers (-1.5)
Chiefs (5-0)
Chiefs won their first four games, by 7-1-5-7-13 points.
Kansas City is 5-0 despite being minus-6 in turnovers.
Chiefs trailed at halftime in three of the five games.
Chiefs are 10-5 ATS in last 15 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Team total: under 4-1
Opponents’ team total: under 3-2
Since 2017, Kansas City is 12-4 ATS as an underdog.
QB Mahomes is 94-25 as an NFL starter.
Chiefs are 9-3 ATS in last 12 regular season games vs NFC teams.
Chiefs have outscored opponents 59-28 in second half.
KC is 8-2 SU in its last ten post-bye games.
AFC West road underdogs are 4-1 ATS in non-divisional games.
49ers (3-3)
49ers have losses by 1-3-6 points, wins by 13-17-12 points.
49ers are 12-7 ATS last 19 games as a home favorite.
49ers scored 32-30-36 points in wins, 17-24-23 in losses.
49ers are 5-2 ATS in last seven games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Team total: under 3-3
Opponents’ team total: over 4-1-1
49ers outscored last four opponents 73-23 in first half.
49ers were outscored 65-41 in 2nd half of those four games.
QB Purdy is 24-8 as an NFL starter.
San Francisco is 5-7 ATS last 12 games vs AFC teams.
Over is 5-1 in their games this season.
NFC West home favorites are 3-2 ATS in non-divisional games.
Chiefs beat San Francisco 25-22 in Super Bowl last year.
Kansas City won six of last seven series games.
Chiefs lost three of last four visits to Santa Clara.
Over is 5-2 in last seven meetings.
Jets (-1.5) @ Steelers
Jets (2-4)
Short week for Jets after Monday night’s loss to Buffalo
Jets lost last three games, by 1-6-3 points.
Jets scored 24-24 points in wins, 19-9-17-20 in losses.
Team total: over 3-2-1
Opponents’ team total: under 3-3
Jets are 2-6-1 ATS last nine games as a road favorite.
Jets are 5-11-1 ATS in last 17 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Jets are 15-19 ATS last 34 games coming off a loss.
Jets traded for WR Adams Tuesday; will that help quickly?
Rodgers is 161-89-1 as an NFL starter, 3-4 with Jets.
AFC East teams are 3-11 ATS in non-divisional games.
Steelers (4-2)
Sounds like QB Wilson will be making his first Steelers start.
Wilson is 124-79-1 as an NFL starter, 17-27 since 2021.
Steelers are 12-5-2 ATS last 19 games as a home underdog.
Team total: under 4-2
Opponents’ team total: under 5-1
Steelers allowed 10-6-10-13 points in wins, 27-20 in losses.
Pittsburgh is 11-7-1 in its last 19 games coming off a win.
Pittsburgh was held to 226-293 TY in its last two games.
Steelers are 15-8-1 ATS in last 24 games with spread of 3 or less points.
Under is 9-5 in their last 14 home games.
NFC North teams are 12-9 ATS in non-divisional games.
Jets won three of last four meetings.
Jets are 2-6 SU/3-5 ATS in last eight visits to Pittsburgh
Under is 5-1 in last six series games.
