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Post by Makers on Jan 13, 2021 6:36:20 GMT -5
Saturday 4:35 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Rams at Green Bay Packers
This late afternoon NFC matchup is shaping up to be one of the lopsided games of the weekend in terms of ticket counts. The Rams (11-6 SU, 10-7 ATS) enter as the Cinderella 6-seed, having just upset the Seahawks 30-20 on Wild Card Weekend, winning outright as 3-point road dogs. Now they head to Lambeau to face the top-seeded Packers (13-3 SU, 10-6 ATS). Green Bay has won six-straight and enjoys a bye week of rest. This line opened with the Packers listed as a 7-point home favorite.
The public is happy to fade Jared Goff and is rushing to the window to back Aaron Rodgers and the Packers at home. However, despite this lopsided support in favor of the Packers, we've seen the line tumble from Green Bay -7 to -6.5. This signals some sharp reverse line movement on the road dog, with respected pro bettors grabbing the Rams + 7. This line movement is eerily similar to what we saw last week with the Colts falling from + 7 to + 6.5 despite heavy betting on the Bills. Divisional round dogs are 59% ATS over the past decade, with playoff dogs 64% ATS since 2017. Ron Torbert, the lead ref, has historically favored road teams (59% ATS). We've also seen some respected money hit this under, dropping the total from 46.5 to 45.5. The forecast calls for high 20s with 5-10 MPH winds. The Rams are 12-5 to the under this season. The Packers are 9-7 to the over.
Sunday 3:05 p.m. ET: Cleveland Browns at Kansas City Chiefs
This Sunday afternoon matchup features the largest spread of any Divisional Round game. The 6-seed Browns (12-5 SU, 7-10 ATS) just shocked the Steelers 48-37 last week, winning outright as 5.5-point road dogs. It marked the first playoff win for the Browns since 1994. Now they travel to Kansas City to face the top-seed Chiefs (14-2 SU, 6-9-2 ATS). The defending champions are the favorites to repeat and win the Super Bowl (+ 220 at BetMGM). This line opened with Kansas City listed as a 10-point home favorite.
The public is split and doesn't know who to back. They love Patrick Mahomes at home, but are also wary of laying double-digits against a feisty Browns squad. This line hasn't budged off the opener of 10, but we are seeing some books juice up the Browns + 10 (-115), signaling some liability on the dog and a possible drop to 9.5. Divisional round dogs getting 7-points or more are roughly 60% ATS over the past decade. Clay Martin, the lead ref, has historically favored road teams (70% ATS). The Chiefs enjoy a rest advantage as they're coming off the bye.
If this line drops to 9.5, it will be interesting to see if the books take in any Chiefs buyback (-9.5) below the key number of 10. We could also be looking at a higher scoring game, as this total has risen from 54.5 to 56. The Browns are 10-7 to the over. The Chiefs are 8-8. The forecast calls for low 40s with moderate 5-10 MPH winds. The Browns will get a boost with the return of head coach Kevin Stefanski, who missed the Wild Card game due to COVID-19.
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Post by Makers on Jan 16, 2021 7:22:09 GMT -5
4:35 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Rams at Green Bay Packers
The Rams (11-6 SU, 10-7 ATS) enter as the Cinderella 6-seed, having just upset the Seahawks 30-20 on Wild Card Weekend, winning outright as 3-point road dogs. Now they head to Lambeau to face the top-seeded Packers (13-3 SU, 10-6 ATS). Green Bay has won six-straight and enjoys a bye week of rest. This line opened with the Packers listed as a 7-point home favorite. The public is happy to fade Jared Goff and is rushing to the window to back Aaron Rodgers and the Packers at home. However, despite this lopsided support in favor of the Packers, we've seen the line tumble from Green Bay -7 to -6.5.
This signals some sharp reverse line movement on the road dog, with respected pro bettors grabbing the Rams + 7. This line movement is eerily similar to what we saw last week with the Colts falling from + 7 to + 6.5 despite heavy betting on the Bills. Divisional round dogs are 59% ATS over the past decade. Ron Torbert, the lead ref, has historically favored road teams (59% ATS). We've also seen some respected money hit this under, dropping the total from 46.5 to 45.5. The forecast calls for low 30s with 5-10 MPH winds. The Rams are 12-5 to the under this season. The Packers are 9-7 to the over. The Packers will be an incredibly popular teaser play this weekend (-6.5 to -0.5).
8:15 p.m. ET: Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills
The 5-seed Ravens (12-5 SU, 11-5-1 ATS) have won six-straight and just took down the Titans 20-13 in the Wild Card round, covering as 3.5-point road favorites. Now they travel to Western New York to face the 2-seed Bills (14-3 SU, 11-6 ATS). Buffalo has won seven straight, including a 27-24 win over the Colts in last week's playoff opener, although the Bills failed to cover as 7-point home favorites. This line opened with Buffalo listed as a 3-point home favorite.
The public is leaning on Bills Mafia at home, yet we've seen Buffalo fall from -3 to -2.5. Some shops even touched -2 or -1.5 throughout the week. This sharp line move signals respected pro money getting down hard on Baltimore plus the points. Pros really loved Baltimore + 3 as soon as the line opened. Lamar Jackson is 5-1 ATS in his career as a dog. Smart money has leaned on this under, dropping the total from 50.5 to 49.5. The Ravens are 10-7 to the under this season but the Bills are 12-4-1 to the over. Weather could be an issue tonight. The forecast calls for low 30s with 10-15 MPH winds. The Bills enjoy a 1-day rest advantage, having played last Saturday while the Ravens played on Sunday. Baltimore is in prime teaser territory (+ 2.5 to + 8.5, passing through key numbers of 3 and 7).
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Post by Makers on Jan 18, 2021 8:56:28 GMT -5
NFC Championship Game (Sunday 3:05 p.m. ET): Bucs at Packers
The Packers opened as consensus 4-point home favorites against the Bucs. Some shops opened a bit higher at Green Bay -4.5. The early action appears to be coming down on Tom Brady and the underdog Bucs. The books that opened 4.5 have fallen to 4 and the rest of the market appears headed to 3.5. Early money also looks to be leaning on the under, as most books opened with a total of 52 or 51.5 and have quickly fallen to 50. Weather could be an issue in Green Bay. The early forecast calls for freezing temperatures in the low 20s with 10-12 MPH winds and possibly some snow. The Packers enjoy a one-day rest advantage as they played on Saturday while the Bucs played Sunday. Sportsbooks will be rooting for the Packers as they have a ton of Super Bowl liability on the Bucs. Many bettors placed longshot tickets on the Bucs to win it all when they landed Brady in the offseason.
AFC Championship Game (Sunday 6:40 p.m. ET): Bills at Chiefs
The Chiefs opened as consensus 2.5-point home favorites against the Bills. Early money has poured in on the Chiefs, driving this line up to the key number of -3. Pro money also seems to be expecting a shootout, as the total has shot up from 51 to 55. The under then took it some money, falling to 54.5 across the board. The big variable here is the health of Chiefs star quarterback Patrick Mahomes, who left yesterday's divisional round game with a concussion. The Chiefs may get a boost with the possible return of running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire. The Bills enjoy a one-day rest advantage as they played on Saturday while the Chiefs played Sunday.
Updated Super Bowl Odds at BetMGM
Packers + 210
Chiefs + 210
Bills + 325
Bucs + 400
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Post by Makers on Jan 22, 2021 6:37:16 GMT -5
Friday is low total college basketball overs. This system has been a consistent cash cow all season. When the total is 130 or less, the over is 78-46 (63%). If the total is 127 or less, the over improves to 46-14 (77%).
Here are the matches for today
Old Dominion-North Texas Over 128
Air Force-San Diego State Over 127
UL Monroe-Texas State Over 126.5
Florida Atlantic-Charlotte Over 126
UC Riverside-Cal Bakersfield Over 122
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Post by Makers on Jan 24, 2021 8:27:24 GMT -5
3:05 p.m. ET: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Green Bay Packers
This NFC Championship game marks the 14th championship game for Tom Brady and 5th for Aaron Rodgers. Brady is 9-4 while Rodgers is 1-3. The Bucs (13-5 SU, 10-8 ATS) enter as the underdog 5-seed. Tampa Bay beat Washington 31-23 in the Wild Card round, although they failed to cover as 10-point road favorites. In last week's Divisional Round, the Bucs upset the Saints 30-20, winning outright as 2.5-point road dogs. The 1-seed Packers (14-3 SU, 11-6 ATS) received a first-round bye and are coming off a 23-18 win over the Rams in the Divisional Round, covering as 7-point home favorites. This line opened with Green Bay listed as a 4-point home favorite. The public respects Brady but also can't pass up laying a short spread at home with the high-flying Packers. However, despite a slight majority of bets backing Green Bay, we've seen this line fall to 3.5. It even touched the key number of 3 before some Packers buyback pushed the line back up to 3.5. Essentially, respected pro money has gotten down on the Bucs at + 3.5 or better, while conflicting sharp Packers money came in at -3. Playoff dogs with a line move in their favor (like the Bucs going from + 4 to + 3.5) are 14-7 ATS (67%) since 2017. These teams met back in Week 6 and the Bucs won 38-10. Green Bay has a one-day rest advantage as it just played on Saturday while the Bucs played Sunday. The Bucs will also be playing their third straight road playoff game. Early in the week, we saw money hit this under, dropping the total from 51.5 to 51. But over the past 24-48 hours we've been late over money come in, driving the total up to 52. Weather could play a big factor in this one. The forecast calls for high 20s , 7-10 MPH winds and possible snow showers. Both teams have been profitable to the over this season, with Tampa Bay 10-8 and Green Bay 10-7 6:40 p.m. ET: Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs
This AFC Championship Game marks the third straight conference title game for Kansas City. Meanwhile, it's the first for Buffalo since 1994. The 2-seed Bills (15-3 SU, 12-6 ATS) just dismissed the Ravens 17-3 in the Divisional Round, easily covering as 2.5-point home favorites. A week earlier, Buffalo beat Indianapolis 27-24, although they failed to cover as 7-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the 1-seed Chiefs (15-2 SU, 6-10-1 ATS) just squeaked by the Browns 22-17, failing to cover as 8-point home favorites. Kansas City lost star quarterback Patrick Mahomes late in the game due to a concussion. This line opened with Kansas City listed as a 3-point home favorite. Bets are virtually split down the middle and the public doesn't know who to back. But once Majomes was upgraded to probably, we saw the juice on the 3 move toward the Chiefs (-3 at -120). This signals some liability on the Kansas City side. If the line reaches 3.5 on gameday, expect some Bills money to grab the hook. Playoff dogs like Buffalo are 6-4 ATS this postseason and 27-17 ATS (61%) since 2017. These two teams met in Week 6, with Kansas City winning 26-17. Buffalo enjoys a one-day rest advantage as they played on Saturday while the Chiefs played Sunday. Bill Vinovich, the lead ref, has historically favored road teams (55% ATS). The Chiefs are 8-1 straight up over their last nine games but just 1-8 ATS. Pro money has also hit this over, pushing the total up from 50.5 to 54.5. Buffalo is 12-5-1 to the over this season. Kansas City is 9-8 to the under. The forecast calls for high 30s and 10 MPH winds.
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Post by Makers on Jan 25, 2021 6:53:25 GMT -5
Early money has come down on the Bucs getting the hook (+ 3.5), which has dropped most books down to the key number of 3. The Chiefs -3 is being juiced up to -120, signaling a possible rise back to 3.5. The hook could prove critical.
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Post by Makers on Jan 27, 2021 6:13:12 GMT -5
Thus far, it's pretty clear that respected money got down on the Bucs getting the hook (+ 3.5). Nearly every book opened Chiefs -3.5 and we've seen the line fall to 3. This is notable because the Chiefs are the "public" play. With roughly two-thirds of tickets backing the Chiefs, you would think this line would trend further toward Kansas City. But instead of moving to -4, the line has fallen to -3. This signals liability on Tom Brady and the Bucs plus the points. In terms of the total, we've also seen sharps target the under. The total opened 57.5 and it's been bet down to 56.5 or even 56 at some shops. Overall, Super Bowl dogs and favorites have split 5-5 ATS over the past decade. The key has been targeting teams with a line move in their favor of at least a half point (think a dog going from + 7 to + 6 or a favorite going from -3 to -3.5). These teams are 7-2 ATS (78%). As of now, the Bucs (+ 3.5 to + 3) would be a system match.
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Post by Makers on Jan 28, 2021 6:13:58 GMT -5
Consensus spread continues to be Chiefs -3, though the South Point joined BetMGM and Station Casinos at -3.5. Over/Under still 56.5 with a low of 56 at Circa Sports and the Westgate SuperBook and a high of 57 at Treasure Island. As of this morning 65% of wagers as well as $'s wagered on K.C.
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Post by Makers on Feb 1, 2021 7:12:06 GMT -5
Consensus still Chiefs -3 (-120) vs. Buccaneers while BetMGM & Station Casinos only books at Chiefs -3.5 (both -105) & Bucs +3.5 (both -115); O/U still 56.5 with low of 56 at Circa & Wynn (Westgate back up to 56.5); all 57s are gone. Consensus remains 64% $$'s and wagers side with K.C.
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Post by Makers on Feb 10, 2021 6:39:19 GMT -5
5 p.m. ET: Furman at NC Greensboro
This early evening Southern showdown is being overlooked by public bettors but not wiseguys. These two teams met two days ago and Furman (12-6) blasted NC Greensboro (13-6) by a score of 68-49, easily covering as 3-point home favorites. Now the home and home series shifts to NC Greensboro. This line opened with NC Greensboro listed as a short 2.5-point home favorite. We've seen a quick adjustment toward the road dog, with pros grabbing Furman and the points. This one-sided action has dropped the line from Furman + 2.5 to + 2. Some shops are even trending down to + 1.5. Simply put, no public bettors are waking up today saying they have to bet Furman-NC Greensboro. So anytime you see line movement in a small school matchup, there's a good chance it's driven by pros with an edge. Ken Pom has NC Greensboro winning this game by one point. He also has Furman ranked as the better team (92nd in the country vs 116th). Furman has value as a short road conference dog with a line move in their favor. 7:30 p.m. ET: Rutgers at Iowa
These Big Ten rivals are trending in opposite directions. Rutgers (11-6, ranked 25th) has won four straight, beating Indiana, Michigan State, Northwestern and Minnesota. Meanwhile, Iowa (13-6, ranked 15th) has been in a tailspin as of late. After starting the season 12-2, the Hawkeyes are just 1-4 over their past five games, most recently falling to Indiana 67-65 as 3.5-point road favorites. This line opened with Iowa listed as a 6-point home favorite. The public is split and doesn't know where to go. Iowa is at home and higher ranked, but they've been struggling and are laying a handful of points against a red-hot Rutgers squad. However, pros seem to be buying low on Iowa as we've seen this line creep up from -6 to -6.5. Ken Pom has Iowa winning this game by seven points. 9 p.m. ET: LSU at Mississippi State
This late night SEC sweat features a pair of unranked teams fighting for a spot in the Big Dance. LSU (11-6) has struggled lately, going 1-4 over their last five games after starting the season 10-2. On the flip side, Mississippi State (11-9) has hovered around .500 all season but has since won two of their last three. This line opened with Mississippi State listed as a short 2.5-point home favorite. Sharp money has jumped on LSU getting points, which has dropped this line down to 1.5 or even 1 at some shops. The Tigers have value as a conference road dog with a line move in their favor. Ken Pom has Mississippi State winning by one point. He also has LSU ranked much higher (42nd in the country vs 66th). LSU has a rest advantage, having last played a week ago while the Bulldogs played on Saturday. More Wednesday Line Movement
Indiana-Northwestern Over 137 to 140 Old Dominion + 2.5 to + 2 at Charlotte East Tennessee State-Citadel Under 155.5 to 154.5 Virginia-Georgia Tech Over 127 to 128 Bradley -2 to -3.5 at Valparaiso Northern Iowa + 12 to + 10 at Drake Nicholls State-Lamar Over 142.5 to 144.5
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Post by Makers on Feb 11, 2021 6:11:46 GMT -5
8 p.m. ET: Ottawa Senators (2-11-1) at Winnipeg Jets (7-4-1)
This North Division matchup looks incredibly lopsided on paper. The Senators are the worst team in the NHL. Ottawa has lost three straight and is just 1-9 over their last ten games. On the flip side, the Jets are 6-3-1 over their last ten games. This line opened with Winnipeg listed as a hefty -190 favorite and we've seen the line jump up to -200. The Jets match several profitable betting systems this season, including a home favorite (75-31, 71%) and a home favorite -150 or more (35-7, 83%). Winnipeg is also a favorite off a loss (47-16, 75%) and a favorite with a line move of 10 cents or more in their direction (33-10, 77%). Ottawa has a league-worst -27 goal differential while Winnipeg is + 6. The Senators are 1-6 on the road. The Jets are 5-2-1 at home. Respected money seems to be leaning under. The total is a high 6.5 with the under juiced to -125. The under is 9-5 in Senators games and 6-6 in Jets games. 8:30 p.m. ET: Carolina Hurricanes (7-3) at Dallas Stars (5-2-3)
Both of these Central Division foes are looking to get back in the win column. The Hurricanes have lost two of their last three while the Stars have dropped three straight. This line opened with Carolina listed as a short -115 road favorite and we've seen respected money push the Canes up to -125. Carolina has value as a favorite off a loss (47-16, 75% this season) and a favorite with a line move of ten-cents or more in their direction (33-10, 77%). The Canes also have a one-day rest advantage, having last played on Monday while the Stars played on Tuesday. Favorites with this "rest vs tired" advantage are 11-4 (74%) this season. Carolina is 6-3 as a favorite this season. The Stars are 0-2 as a dog. 10 p.m. ET: Anaheim Ducks (5-6-3) at Vegas Golden Knights (8-1-1)
These West Division opponents just met two nights ago and the Knights hung on to win 5-4, cashing as massive -225 favorites. In tonight's rematch, the Knights opened as big -220 favorites and have been bet up to -230 or even -240 at some shops. The Knights have value as a home favorite (75-31, 71% this season) and a big home favorite -150 or more (35-7, 83%). We've also seen heavy favorites of -200 or more go 18-4 (82%) this season. The Ducks are -10 in goal differential while the Knights are + 11. Vegas is 7-0-1 at home while Anaheim is 2-3-1 on the road. We've also seen some liability to the over. The total is 5.5 with the over juiced up to -120. The over is 8-2 in Knights games this season. The Ducks have been an under team (9-4-1). 10 p.m. ET: Calgary Flames (6-5-1) at Vancouver Canucks (6-10)
These North Division rivals are trending in completely opposite directions. The Flames are riding a two-game win streak while the Canucks have dropped five games in a row. This line opened with Calgary listed as a modest -130 road favorite and we've seen big steam light up the Flames, pushing Calgary up to -140 or even -150 at some shops. The Flames have value as a favorite with a line move of ten-cents or more in their direction (33-10, 77% this season). Favorites with a line move of 20-cents or more are a whopping 15-4 (79%). Calgary is + 3 in goal differential while Vancouver is -13. The Flames are 5-3 as a favorite. The Canucks are 3-10 as a dog. We've also seen pros lean toward this under. the total is a high 6.5 with the under juiced up to -120.
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Post by Makers on Feb 16, 2021 6:55:17 GMT -5
6:30 p.m. ET: Providence at Connecticut
This Big East showdown features two teams looking to build on recent wins. Providence (11-10 SU, 10-11 ATS) has won two straight and just took down DePaul 57-47, easily covering as 2.5-point road favorites. On the flip side, Connecticut (9-5 SU, 10-4 ATS) just posted a huge upset win over Xavier 80-72, winning outright as 3.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Connecticut listed as a 6-point home favorite. The public is split and doesn't know whether to take the points or lay them. However, pros seem to be grabbing Providence plus the points and we've seen this line fall from 6 to 5.5. Providence has value as a short road conference dog with a line move in their favor. Ken Pom has this game right on the number, projecting a UConn 6-point win. These teams just met 5-days ago and Providence beat UConn 70-59, winning outright as 2.5-point home dogs. 6:30 p.m. ET: Missouri at GeorgiaBoth of these SEC rivals have dropped two straight games and are looking to get back on track. Missouri (13-5 SU, 10-8 ATS, ranked 20th) just fell to Arkansas 86-81, losing outright as 2.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Georgia (12-8 SU, 10-9 ATS) just got waxed by Alabama 115-82, failing to cover as 13-point road dogs. This line opened with Missouri listed as a 4.5-point road favorite. This public is all over ranked Missouri, yet we've seen this line fall to 3.5. This signals some sharp reverse line movement on Georgia, with respected money grabbing the points. The Bulldogs have buy-low value as a contrarian unranked home conference dog vs a ranked opponent. Ken Pom has Mizzou winning this game by 3 points, which means Georgia plus the hook (+ 3.5) or better had actionable value. Pros also seem to be leaning under as we've seen this high total dip from 154.5 to 153.5. 8:30 p.m. ET: Xavier at St. John's
Both of these Big East opponents just suffered tough losses that snapped prolonged winning streaks. Xavier (11-3 SU, 8-6 ATS) returned from a 2-week COVID layoff on Saturday and fell to UConn 80-72, losing outright as 3.5-point home favorites. Similarly, St. John's (18-8 SU, 12-9 ATS) just had their six game win streak snapped when they lost to Butler 76-73, losing as 1-point road dogs. This line opened with St. John's listed as a short 2.5-point home favorite. The public doesn't know who to take, yet we've seen this line fall from 2.5 to 2. This signals respected money grabbing Xavier and the points. Xavier has value as a short road conference dog. Ken Pom has St. John's winning by one point, which provides actionable value to Xavier at the current number. Ken Pom has Xavier ranked 52nd in the country and St. John's 66th. Pros also seem to be expecting a higher scoring game as the over has been pounded and bet up from 152.5 to 155. More Tuesday movement
Iowa State + 12 to + 11.5 at Oklahoma State Iowa State-Oklahoma State Over 143.5 to 145 Michigan State + 6.5 to + 5.5 at Purdue Temple + 4.5 to + 3.5 at Tulsa Bowling Green + 1 to -1.5 at Ball State Arkansas -3.5 to -5 vs Florida Nebraska-Maryland Over 134.5 to 135.5 Loyola Marymount -1.5 to -3 at Santa Clara
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Post by Makers on Feb 17, 2021 6:20:50 GMT -5
6:30 p.m. ET: Syracuse at Louisville
This ACC matchup features one team on a winning streak and another returning from a long COVID pause. Syracuse (12-6) has won two straight and three of their last four. Meanwhile, Louisville (11-4) is playing their first game in 16-days. This line opened with Louisville listed as a 4.5-point home favorite. The public is all over Louisville at home laying a short number, yet we've seen this line dip from 4.5 to 4. This signals some sharp reverse line movement on the road dog with wiseguys grabbing 'Cuse plus the hook (+ 4.5). Ken Pom has this game projected as a 4-point Louisville win, which means the hook could end up being key. Syracuse has value as a short road conference dog with a line move in their favor. Sometimes these teams coming off COVID pauses tend to get off to a sluggish start, like what we saw with Michigan against Wisconsin over the weekend. As a result, maybe a first half play on Syracuse would offer some value. We've also seen some money hit this over, driving up the total from 140 to 141. 8:30 p.m. ET: Duke at Wake Forest
These ACC opponents aren't having the seasons they would like. Duke (8-8) finally snapped a 3-game losing skid their last time out with a 69-53 win over NC State, easily covering as 3-point road favorites. On the flip side, Wake Forest (6-9) has rotated wins and losses their last six games. Wake is coming off a 92-85 loss to Florida State over the weekend, covering as 13-point dogs. This line opened with Duke listed as a 5-point road favorite. The public typically loves betting on Duke but not this year with their lackluster record. Also, there is drama surrounding Duke as freshman Jalen Johnson just opted out. However, pros seem to be buying on bad news and backing Duke in a possible undervalued spot as we've seen the Blue Devils rise from -5 to -6. Ken Pom has this as a 5-point Duke win, so there isn't much of an actionable edge. However, Pom does have Duke ranked much higher (36th vs 109th). Duke is in a buy low, sell high spot as a bad ATS team (4-12) against a good ATS team (10-4). 9 p.m. ET: Utah State at Boise State
Bettors are in for a treat as this game features the top two teams in the Mountain West battling for conference supremacy. Utah State (14-5) is another team coming off a COVID pause. The Aggies are playing their first game in 13-days. Meanwhile, Boise State (16-4) is riding a two-game winning streak as they just took care of business against UNLV. This game opened with Boise State listed as a 1.5-point home favorite. Some shops opened at 1 and immediately got bet up to 1.5. Some books are showing juice liability on Boise -1.5 (-115) with a possible move up to 2. Ken Pom has Boise winning this game by one point. As a result, some bettors targeting Boise might rather take them on the moneyline to win the game straight up (-125) against a Utah State team that may be rusty off the COVID break. Boise is a perfect 9-0 at home this season. Respected money has also hit this over, pushing the total up from 137 to 138. More Wednesday Movement
Iona -4.5 to -6.5 at Quinnipiac Evansville + 8 to + 7 at Indiana State Richmond + 3.5 to + 2 at VCU Mercer-East Tennessee State Under 139.5 to 138.5 Arizona State + 11.5 to + 10.5 at USC South Carolina-Tennessee Over 141.5 to 143 Western Carolina-Chattanooga Over 143.5 to 144.5
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Post by Makers on Feb 18, 2021 7:02:58 GMT -5
7 p.m. ET: Nashville Predators (6-9) at Columbus Blue Jackets (7-6-4)
Both of these Central Division opponents are looking to bounce back from losses and get back on track. The Predators are 1-4 over their last five games are just fell to the Red Wings 4-2, losing as -165 home favorites. Similarly, the Blue Jackets have dropped two straight, falling to Chicago and Carolina by a combined score of 10-5. This line opened with Columbus listed as a short -110 home favorite and some respected money has sided with CBJ, pushing the line up to -115. Columbus has value as a home favorite (83-45, 65% this season) and a favorite off a loss (57-21, 73%). Also, when both teams are coming off a loss, as is the case here, the favorite is 17-3 (85%). Nashville is just 1-5 on the road this season. Columbus is 4-2-2 at home. The Preds are also 0-7 as a dog. 8 p.m. ET: San Jose Sharks (6-7-1) at St. Louis Blues (9-5-2)
This West Division showdown features two teams coming off opposite performances. The Sharks just beat the Ducks 3-2 as a -110 pick'em, which snapped a two-game skid. Meanwhile, the Blues just fell to the Coyotes 1-0 as -120 road favorites, which snapped a two-game win streak. This line opened with St. Louis listed as a -195 home favorite. Respected money has pushed this line up to -200 or -210 at some shops. The Blues have value as a home favorite -150 or more (42-14, 75% this season) and a favorite off a loss (57-21, 73%). Big favorites -200 or more are 20-6 (77%) and home favorites -150 or more off a loss are 16-3 (84%). Also, favorites off a loss vs opponents off a win are 40-17 (70%). The Sharks could also be missing star defenseman Erik Karlsson, who is questionable with a lower body injury. The Blues are + 3 in goal differential. The Sharks are -13. The total is 5.5 with heavy -130 juice to the over. Both teams have been profitable to the over this season, with the Sharks 8-6 and Blues 10-6. 9 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Kings (5-6-3) at Arizona Coyotes (7-6-2)
Both of these West Division foes are coming off wins. The Kings have won two straight, beating the Sharks and Wild by a combined score of 10-2. On the flip side, the Coyotes just took down the Blues 1-0, ending a streak of 7-straight games against St. Louis. This line opened with Arizona listed as a -150 home favorite and we've seen some shops jump up to -160. Arizona has value as a home favorite (83-45, 65% this season) and a home favorite -150 or more (42-14, 75%). The Coyotes also enjoy a 1-day rest advantage, as Arizona last played at home on Monday while the Kings played on Tuesday and now must travel. Favorites in this "rest vs tired" spot are 12-6 (67%). Arizona is 4-3-2 at home. Los Angeles is 2-4 on the road. The total is 5.5. Both teams have been profitable to the over this season, with the Kings 10-4 and the Coyotes 9-5-1. 10 p.m. ET: Minnesota Wild (6-6) at Anaheim Ducks (6-7-3)
Both of these West Division opponents are looking to rebound from losses. The Wild just returned from a 2-week COVID pause and fell to the Kings 4-0, losing outright as hefty -160 road favorites. Meanwhile, the Ducks have lost two of their last three, most recently falling to the Sharks 3-2 as a -110 pick'em play. This line opened with Minnesota listed as a short -125 road favorite and we've seen lopsided support push this line up to -130. The Wild have value as a favorite off a loss (57-21, 73% this season). Also, when both opponents are coming off a loss, the favorite is 17-3 (85%). We might also be looking at a lower scoring game. The total is 5.5 with heavy under juice (-125), signaling under liability. The Ducks are one of the best under teams in the NHL this season (11-4-1). The Wild are 6-6.
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Post by Makers on Feb 19, 2021 7:21:02 GMT -5
6 p.m. ET: Oakland (9-16) at Milwaukee (7-10)
This early evening Horizon League showdown may not be garnering much attention from the betting public. But respected money has taken notice. Oakland started the season 0-9 and has rebounded to go a 9-7 the rest of the way. Meanwhile, Milwaukee has dropped four straight and is looking to get back on track. This line opened with Milwaukee listed as a 1.5-point home favorite and we've seen the line jump up to -2, signaling some wiseguy money in their favor. Since this is such a low bet, unpopular game, we know that no recreational bettors are waking up today saying "I have to bet Oakland vs Milwaukee." As a result, we know that it's almost exclusively pros with an edge targeting this number. Ken Pom has Milwaukee winning by two points. As a result, a look at Milwaukee on the moneyline (-125) may be more attractive. We've also seen some under money show up, dropping the total from 154.5 to 153.5. Both of these teams are paced around 69 according to Ken Pom, which is on the slower side (anything 70 or less is slower, anything 70 above is quicker). 6 p.m. ET: South Alabama (14-8) at Appalachian State (12-7)
Who's ready for some Sun Belt fun belt action? South Alabama enters red-hot, riding a six-game winning streak. On the flip side, Appalachian State has dropped two straight and is now playing their first game back off a long COVID layoff (last game Jan. 30). This line opened with App State listed as a short 2.5-point home favorite. Respected money has jumped on South Alabama and the points, with has dropped the line down to 1.5. South Alabama has value as a short road conference dog with a line move in their favor. South Alabama also has buy low value as a "bad" ATS team (8-10) against a sell high "good" ATS ream (9-5-1). Ken Pom has App State winning by three, which isn't much of an edge for the dog. However, Pom does have these teams almost even in terms of rankings, with South Alabama 203rd and App State 197th. 10 p.m. ET: Utah State (14-6) at Boise State (17-4)
These Mountain West powerhouses met two nights ago and Boise State took home the victory 79-70, covering as 1.5-point home favorites. It marked the first game for Utah State since returning from their two-week COVID pause. This rematch opened with Boise State listed as a short 1.5-point home favorite. This line either remained at -1.5 or crept up slightly to -2, signaling liability once again on the side of Boise. Ken Pom has Boise winning this game by two points, so wiseguys who like Boise may prefer backing them on the moneyline (-125) instead of laying the points. Boise is a perfect 10-0 on their home court this season. We've also seen some over money show up, pushing the total from 140 to 141. The over has cashed in four of the last five meetings between these rivals. The over is 11-9 in Boise games but the under is 11-8 in Utah State games. More Friday Movement
Fairfield + 5.5 to + 4.5 vs Canisius Youngstown State -4 to -5 vs IUPUI Iona -1 to -2 vs Monmouth FIU -2 to -3 vs Southern Miss Old Dominion + 7.5 to + 6.5 at UAB UC Riverside -6.5 to -8 at UC San Diego Toledo-Buffalo Over 160 to 162.5 Hawaii -4 to -5 at CS Northridge
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