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Post by Makers on Dec 28, 2020 9:02:50 GMT -5
8:15 p.m. ET: Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots
This Monday Night showdown features two AFC rivals in unfamiliar situations. The Bills (11-3 SU, 9-5 ATS) have won four straight and are 7-1 over their last eight games. Last week Buffalo crushed Denver 48-19, easily covering as 6-point road favorites. The Bills are the 2-seed in the AFC and need to keep winning to fend off the Steelers, Titans, Browns and Colts. Meanwhile, the Patriots (6-8 SU, 6-8 ATS) have lost two straight, including a 22-12 loss to the Dolphins last week, failing to cover as 1-point road favorites. New England has officially been eliminated from the playoffs for the first time since Bill Belichick's first year in Foxborough in 2000. The Bills are + 67 in point different while the Patriots are -12.
This line opened with the Bills listed as 6.5-point road favorites (the early lookahead was Bills -4.5). The public, along with some early sharp money, have pounced on Buffalo, pushing this line up to -7. The Bills are a massively popular play tonight, receiving roughly three-out-of-four spread bets. The fact that this line hasn't inched up to -7.5 signals some reluctance by the books to hand out the hook (+ 7.5) to brave contrarian Pats backers. Essentially, we are witnessing a sharp line freeze at Pats + 7.
The Patriots have buy-low value as a home divisional dog (63% ATS this season), a primetime dog (60% ATS) and a December dog of a touchdown or more (5-3 ATS this season). New England will also be one of your top contrarian plays of the week as the public is absolutely hammering Bills Mafia.
The total has ticked up slightly from 45 to 46. The Bills are one of the best over teams this season (10-4) while the Pats have been great to the under (10-4). Primetime unders are 58% this season. This also matches a profitable late season divisional under system. The Patriots lost to the Bills 24-21 in Week 8 but covered as 3.5-point road dogs.
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Post by Makers on Dec 29, 2020 6:31:10 GMT -5
5:30 p.m. ET: Oklahoma State vs Miami Florida
This is the Cheez-It Bowl and it will be played outdoors at Camping World Stadium in Orlando, Fla. Oklahoma State (7-3, ranked 21st) finished 3rd in the Big 12. The Cowboys started the season 4-0 but went just 3-3 the rest of the way, although they did end the regular season on a high note, crushing Baylor 42-3. Meanwhile, Miami (8-2, ranked 18th) finished 3rd in the ACC. The Hurricanes rolled much of the season but then got steamrolled by North Carolina 62-26 in their regular season finale. The Hurricanes possess the stronger offense in this matchup (34 PPG vs 29.5 PPG) but the Cowboys are stronger on defense (22.4 PPG allowed vs 26 PPG allowed).
This line opened with Oklahoma State listed as a 2.5-point favorite. The public is split down the middle and doesn't know who to take. However, we've seen sharp money get down hard on Miami plus the points, dropping this line from 2.5 to 1. Historically, when two ranked teams go head-to-head in a Bowl game the underdog has covered roughly 54% of the time over the past decade. Miami is also a buy-low dog off a blowout loss. Pros and Joes seem to be in agreement with the total. Both are taking the over, which has driven this line up from 58.5 to 61. The forecast calls for mid-60s with moderate 5-10 MPH winds.
9 p.m. ET: Texas vs Colorado
This is the Valero Alamo Bowl and it will be played indoors at the Alamodome in San Antonio, Texas. The Longhorns (6-3, ranked 20th) finished 4th in the Big 12. After a 2-2 start, Texas went 4-1 the rest of the way, including a 69-31 blowout win over Kansas State in the final game of the regular season. On the flip side, Colorado (4-1) only played a 5-game schedule but finished 2nd in the Pac 12. Colorado started 4-0 but lost to Utah 38-21 in their regular season finale. Texas has a much better offense compared to Colorado (41.3 PPG vs 29.6 PPG). The Buffaloes are slightly better on defense (27 PPG allowed vs 29.1 PPG allowed).
This line opened with Texas listed as a hefty 13-point favorite. The public is split but we've seen sharps flock to the Buffs, dropping this line from 13 to 7.5. Some shops are even down to the key number of 7. One reason for the line move is the fact that several defensive starters have opted out for Texas, including star edge rusher Joseph Ossai, who will focus on the NFL Draft instead of playing in this game. Colorado also has buy-low value as an unranked dog against a ranked opponent. We've also seen sharp money hit this total. Despite the public hammering the over, we've seen the total fall from 64.5 to 63.5, signaling some respected under money.
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Post by Makers on Dec 30, 2020 7:31:18 GMT -5
Sunday 1 p.m. ET: New York Jets at New England Patriots
Both of these bitter AFC East rivals are eliminated from the playoffs. But one team is trending up while the other is crumbling down the stretch. The Jets (2-13 SU, 6-9 ATS) were once winless but have now won two in a row, most recently upsetting the Browns 23-16 last week and winning outright as 6.5-point home dogs. Meanwhile, the Patriots (6-9 SU, 6-9 ATS) have lost three straight and just got crushed by the Bills 38-9 on Monday Night, failing to cover as 7-point home dogs. The lookahead line on this game was Patriots -7.5. The public still thinks the Pats are better than the Jets, but sharp money seems to be fading New England. Wiseguys have gotten down hard on New York, dropping the Jets from + 5 to + 3. Pros targeted New York anything with the hook (+ 3.5) or better. New York has value as a short road dog + 6 or less (62% ATS this season) and a divisional dog (58% ATS). The Jets also enjoy a rest advantage as the Pats are on a short week and just played on Monday night. The total has fallen from 43 to 41. Both teams have been profitable to the under this season, with New York 9-6 and New England 10-4-1. The Pats beat the Jets 30-27 in Week 9.
Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET: Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers
This NFC West showdown features one team looking to improve their playoff seeding and another looking to play spoiler. The Seahawks (11-4 SU, 8-7 ATS) have won three straight, including a 20-9 beatdown of the Rams last week, easily covering as short 1.5-point home favorites. The Seahawks have clinched a playoff berth by winning their division and can rise higher than the 3-seed with a win and some help. On the other hand, the 49ers (6-9 SU, 6-9 ATS) have already been eliminated from the playoffs. However, San Francisco snapped a three-game losing skid and beat the Cardinals 20-12 last week, winning outright as 6-point road dogs.
This line opened with Seattle listed as a 6.5-point road favorite. The public is rushing to the window to back Russell Wilson and the Hawks, yet we've seen this line fall from -6.5 to -5.5. This sharp reverse line movement indicates pro money backing San Francisco plus the points. The 49ers have value as a home divisional dog (61% ATS this season). We've also seen respected money back the under, dropping the total from 47 to 46. Both teams are profitable to the under, with Seattle 9-6 and the 49ers 8-7. The Seahawks beat the 49ers 37-27 in Week 8.
Sunday 8:20 p.m. ET: Washington Football Team at Philadelphia Eagles
This Sunday Night Football Showdown is one of the most consequential games of the Week 17 slate. Washington (6-9 SU, 8-6-2 ATS) has lost two straight, most recently falling to the Panthers 20-13 last week and failing to cover as 1-point home dogs. However, Washington still controls its own destiny. With a victory over Philadelphia, the Football Team wins the NFC East and punches its ticket to the playoffs. This game doesn't mean much to the Eagles (4-10-1 SU, 5-10 ATS), who have already been eliminated from the playoffs. Philadelphia has lost two straight and is just 1-6 over their last seven. The Eagles got rolled by the Cowboys 37-17 last week, losing outright as 3-point road favorites.
The lookahead line on this game was Eagles -4 at home. However, heavy wiseguy action has pounded the Football Team, flipping this line to Washington -2. Ron Torbert, the lead ref, has been historically profitable for away teams (59% ATS). The Eagles will have value as a buy-low primetime dog and home divisional dog (61% ATS). Both teams are profitable to the under (Washington 9-5-1 and Philadelphia 8-7), yet we've seen the total rise slightly from 42 to 43. The Football Team beat the Eagles 27-17 in Week 1.
More Week 17 Line Moves
Cowboys + 3 to -3 at Giants
Browns -6 to -10 vs Steelers
Dolphins + 5 to + 3 at Bills
Raiders + 2 to -2.5 at Broncos
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Post by Makers on Dec 31, 2020 6:21:21 GMT -5
2 p.m. ET : Mississippi State vs Tulsa
This is the Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl and it will be played outdoors at Amon G. Carter Stadium in Fort Worth, Texas. On paper, this looks like a massive mismatch. Mississippi State is just 3-7, although they finished the regular season on a high note, beating Missouri 51-32 as 1.5-point home dogs. On the flip side, Tulsa is 6-2 and ranked 24th overall. The Golden Hurricane hung tough with Cincinnati in the AAC championship game, losing 27-24 but covering as 13.5-point dogs. This line opened with Tulsa listed as a short 3-point favorite. The public is all over Tulsa, yet we've seen this line fall to 1.5 or even 1 at some shops. This signals sharp reverse line movement on Mississippi State. Tulsa will miss star linebacker and Nagurski award winner Zaven Collins, who opted out and has declared for the draft. Weather could play a factor in this game. The forecast calls for rain and 15-20 MPH winds. Sharps have hit the under, dropping the total from 50 to 45. 2 p.m. ET: Ball State vs San Jose StateThis is the Offerpad Arizona Bowl and will be played outdoors at Arizona Stadium. Ball State (6-1) is riding high after upsetting Buffalo 38-28 as 12.5-point dogs to win the MAC championship. Now they face their toughest test yet. San Jose State (7-0) is undefeated and ranked 22nd overall. The Spartans beat Boise State 34-20 to win the Mountain West championship, winning outright as 6.5-point dogs. This line opened with San Jose State listed as a 7-point favorite. Pros and Joes are both siding with the Spartans, which has pushed this line up to -9.5. The public is hammering the over, yet this total has remained frozen at 64 or even dipped slightly to 63.5. This signals some liability on the under. The under is 6-1 in San Jose State games this season. The under is 4-3 in Ball State games. 4 p.m. ET: West Virginia vs Army
This is the AutoZone Liberty Bowl and it will be played outdoors at Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium in Memphis, Tennessee. West Virginia (5-4) started the season 3-1 but went just 2-3 the rest of the way, including a 42-6 loss to Iowa State their last time out, failing to cover as 6-point road dogs. Meanwhile, Army (9-2) finished the regular season on a three-game win streak, most recently beating Air Force 10-7 and winning outright as 2.5-point home dogs. This line opened with West Virginia listed as a 7.5-point favorite. Bets are split down the middle and the public doesn't know who to take. However, we've seen this line fall to 7 or even 6.5 at some shops, signaling pro money grabbing the points with the Black Knights. We've also seen respected money hit this under, dropping the total from 43 to 41. The forecast calls for rain and 10-15 MPH winds.
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Post by Makers on Jan 1, 2021 6:12:54 GMT -5
Noon ET: Cincinnati vs Georgia
This is the Peach Bowl and it will be played at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, home of the Atlanta Falcons. Cincinnati (9-0, ranked 8th) is undefeated and just beat Tulsa 27-24 in the American Conference Championship game, although they failed to cover as 13.5-point favorites. Meanwhile, Georgia (7-2, ranked 9th) finished 2nd in the SEC East. The Bulldogs finished the regular season on a three-game winning streak, most recently crushing Missouri 49-14 and easily covering as 14-point favorites. This line opened with Georgia listed as a 7-point favorite. The public can't help but take the points with undefeated Cincinnati. However, despite a majority of bets backing the Bearcats, we've seen this line move toward Georgia (-7 to -7.5). This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Bulldogs, with pros fading the trendy dog and laying the points with contrarian favorite Georgia. Pros and Joes are also leaning toward the over, driving this total up from 50.5 to 51.5. Georgia is 6-3 to the over this season. Cincinnati is 5-4. 1 p.m. ET: Auburn vs Northwestern
This is Citrus Bowl and it will be played outdoors at Camping World Stadium in Orlando, Fla. Auburn (6-4) finished 3rd in the SEC West. The Tigers snapped a two-game losing skid in their regular season finale, beating Mississippi State 24-10 and covering as 5.5-point favorites. On the flip side, Northwestern (6-2, ranked 14th) finished 1st in the Big Ten West. However, after a 5-0 start, the Wildcats went 1-2 the rest of the way. Northwestern lost to Ohio State 22-10 their last time out, although they hung tough and covered as 16.5-point underdogs. This line opened with Northwestern listed as a 3.5-point favorite. Spread bets are split down the middle and the public doesn't know who to take. However, we've seen Northwestern move from -3.5 to -4, signaling some pro money laying the points with the Wildcats. The public is taking the over, yet this total has remained frozen at 43.5, indicating some under liability. Both of these teams have been great to the under this season, with Auburn 8-2 and Northwestern 7-1. The forecast calls for low 80s with 10-15 MPH winds. 8 p.m. ET: Ohio State vs Clemson
This is the Sugar Bowl and the College Football Playoff semifinal. It will be played indoors at the Superdome, home of the New Orleans Saints. Ohio State (6-0, ranked 3rd) is undefeated and just beat Northwestern 22-10 in the Big Ten Championship game, although they failed to cover as 16.5-point favorites. Meanwhile, Clemson (10-1, ranked 2nd) just beat Notre Dame 34-10 to win the ACC Championship, covering as 10.5-point favorites. This line opened with Clemson listed as a 7.5-point favorite. The public is rushing to the window to lay the points with Clemson, yet we've seen this line fall from -7.5 to -7. This sharp reverse line movement signals wiseguy money backing Ohio State plus the points. Ohio State is your top contrarian play of the day as the Buckeyes are only receiving about one-third of bets in a heavily bet, primetime game. We've also seen some respected money hit this over, pushing the total up from 65.5 to 67.5.
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Post by Makers on Jan 2, 2021 7:04:05 GMT -5
NCAAFB: CFB Playoff National Championship Game (Jan. 11) as we head to bed at midnight PT: most Vegas books are holding line at Alabama -7 vs. Ohio State. Over/Unders still averaging 76.5.
No. 3 Ohio State upset No. 2 Clemson 49-28 in the CFB Playoff semifinal/Sugar Bowl. Buckeyes did it after closing as 7-point underdogs & +230 on money line (went Over betting total of 68.5).
No. 1 Alabama routed No. 4 Notre Dame 31-14 in the other semifinal/Rose Bowl. Fighting Irish backers got the back-door cover on Ian Hook's 1-yard TD run with :56 left (stayed Under betting total of 65.5).
No. 9 Georgia rallied to beat No. 8 Cincinnati 24-21 in Peach Bowl. Bulldogs did NOT cover as 8.5-point favorites (stayed Under betting total of 53); No. 14 Northwestern beat Auburn 35-19 in Citrus Bowl and covered as 4-point fave (went Over 45).
So far in bowl season, faves lead 16-5 SU & 12-9 ATS; O/U split 2-2 on Friday, Overs lead 12-8-1 overall. RECAPS & MATCHUPS.
NCAAMB: No Top 25 teams were in action, which was fine as New Year's Day is supposed to be devoted to CFB, but Saturday features 17 Top 25 teams, highlighted by No. 3 Kansas -4 vs. No. 8 Texas (unfortunately, No. 18 Florida St. vs. No. 20 Duke postponed).
NBA: Underdogs went 7-3 ATS with outright upsets by Pistons, Mavericks, Grizzlies, Hawks, Suns & Jazz plus Spurs (+7.5) covering in 109-103 loss vs. Lakers; dogs lead 41-34 ATS (54.7%) on season with 2 PKs; Under went 9-1 Friday & now lead 43-33-1 (56.6%)
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Post by Makers on Jan 2, 2021 7:07:55 GMT -5
12 p.m. ET: Kentucky vs NC State
This is the TaxSlayer Gator Bowl and it will be played outdoors at TIAA Bank Field, home of the Jacksonville Jaguars. Kentucky (4-6) enters with a disappointing sub .500 record, finishing 4th in the SEC East. Although the Wildcats did win their final regular season game 41-18 over South Carolina, easily covering as 11.5-point home favorites. On the flip side, NC State (8-3, ranked 23rd) finished 4th in the ACC and ended the regular season on a three-game winning streak, most recently beating Georgia Tech 23-13 and covering as 7-point home favorites. This line opened with Kentucky listed as a 2.5-point favorite. Right off the bat, this opening line speaks volumes. Why is Kentucky favored if they're unranked and have a much worse record? The public is rushing to the window to grab the points with NC State, yet this line has remained frozen at -2.5. This signals some sharp liability on the contrarian favorite Wildcats, with pros fading the trending dog and laying the short spread. We've also seen heavy s harp action hit this under, dropping the total from 52.5 to 49.5. 4 p.m. ET: Oregon vs Iowa State
This is the PlayStation Fiesta Bowl and it will be played at State Farm Stadium, home of the Arizona Cardinals. Oregon (4-2, ranked 25th) is riding high after upsetting USC 31-24 in the Pac-12 Championship game, winning outright as 3-point road dogs. On the flip side, Iowa State (8-3, ranked 10th) had their five game-winning streak snapped their last time out, losing to Oklahoma 27-21 in the Big 12 Championship game, failing to cover as 5.5-point dogs. These teams are roughly equals on offense (Oregon 33.7 PPG, Iowa State 32.8 PPG). The difference comes on defense, where Oregon is allowing 27.3 PPG and Iowa State is only giving up 21.8 PPG. This game opened with Iowa State listed as a 4-point favorite. The public, along with some early respected money, is all over the Cyclones, which has driven this line up to -4.5 or even -5 at some shops. Oregon has value as a contrarian dog with an inflated line in a heavily bet game. Pros and Joes seem to both be leaning on this over, driving the line up from 57 to 58. 8 p.m. ET: North Carolina vs Texas A&M
This is the Capital One Orange Bowl and it will be played outdoors at Hard Rock Stadium, home of the Miami Dolphins. North Carolina (8-3, ranked 13th) finished 4th in the ACC. The Tar Heels finished the regular season on a high note, winning two straight and crushing Miami 62-26, easily winning outright as 3-point road dogs. Meanwhile, Texas A&M (8-1, ranked 5th) finished second in the SEC West and just beat Tennessee 34-13, covering as 13.5-point road favorites. The Aggies' only loss this season came in Week 2, losing to Alabama 52-24. This game is a contrast in styles as North Carolina possesses the superior offense (43 PPG vs 32 PPG) while Texas A&M is more stout on defense (21 PPG allowed vs 28 PPG allowed). This line opened with Texas A&M listed as a 6.5-point favorite. The public is rushing to the window to lay the points with the Aggies. Two of North Carolinas' top running backs (Michael Carter, Javonte Williams) and another wide receiver (Dyami Brown) have opted out for this game as well, which has helped drive this number up to -7.5. North Carolina is the top contrarian play of the day, receiving only about one-third bets in a primetime, nationally televised game. When two ranked teams face off in a Bowl Game, the dog has covered roughly 53% of the time over the past decade. We've also seen some respected money hit this under, dropping the total from 69 to 65.5.
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Post by Makers on Jan 3, 2021 6:13:33 GMT -5
1 p.m. ET: New York Jets at New England Patriots
Both of these bitter AFC East rivals have already been eliminated from the playoffs. But one team is trending up while the other is crumbling down the stretch. The Jets (2-13 SU, 6-9 ATS) were once winless but have now won two in a row, most recently upsetting the Browns 23-16 last week and winning outright as 6.5-point home dogs. Meanwhile, the Patriots (6-9 SU, 6-9 ATS) have lost three straight and just got crushed by the Bills 38-9 on Monday Night, failing to cover as 7-point home dogs. The lookahead line on this game was Patriots -7.5. The public still thinks the Pats are better than the Jets, but sharp money seems to be fading New England. Wiseguys have gotten down hard on New York, dropping the Jets from + 5 to + 3. Pros targeted New York anything with the hook (+ 3.5) or better. New York has value as a short road dog + 6 or less (62% ATS this season) and a divisional dog (58% ATS). Road divisional dogs + 3 or less are 11-6 ATS (65%) this season. The Jets also enjoy a rest advantage as the Pats are on a short week and just played on Monday night. Sharp money has also gotten down hard on the under, dropping the total from 43 to 39.5. Both teams have been profitable to the under this season (New York 9-6, New England 10-4-1). The Pats beat the Jets 30-27 in Week 9. 4:25 p.m. ET: New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers
This NFC South matchup looks incredibly lopsided on paper. The Saints (11-4 SU, 8-6-1 ATS) snapped a two-game losing skid last week with a commanding 52-33 win over the Vikings on Christmas Day, easily covering as 6.5-point home favorites. New Orleans has clinched a playoff spot and won the division. The Saints currently occupy the 2-seed in the NFC but would love a win to solidify their seeding. Meanwhile, the Panthers (5-10 SU, 9-6 ATS) have long been eliminated from the playoffs. However, Carolina snapped a three-game losing streak last week by beating Washington 20-13 as 1-point road favorites. This line opened with New Orleans listed as a 6.5-point road favorite. The public is laying the points, yet we've seen this line fall from 6.5 to 6. A big reason for the drop is the fact that Alvin Kamara and several other Saints running backs will miss this game due to COVID. Carolina has value as a home divisional dog (61% ATS this season). Teddy "Two Gloves" Bridgewater is 7-3 ATS as a dog this season and 24-6 ATS (80%) as a dog in his career. The total has tumbled from 51 to 46.5 since opening. The Saints beat the Panthers 27-24 at home in Week 7, but Carolina covered. 4:25 p.m. ET: Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears
This NFC North matchup has playoff implications for both teams. The Packers (12-3 SU, 9-6 ATS) have won five straight and just crushed the Titans 40-14, easily covering as 3-point home favorites. Green Bay has clinched a playoff spot but does have something to play for: they can clinch the 1-seed and a first round bye with a win over the Bears. Meanwhile, the Bears (8-7 SU, 8-7 ATS) were once left for dead but have since won three straight under Mitch Trubisky, most recently crushing the Jags 41-17 and easily covering as 9.5-point road favorites. The Bears control their own destiny. They currently occupy the 7th and final playoff seed and can clinch a postseason berth by beating the Packers. This line opened with the Packers listed as 5.5-point road favorites. The public is hammering Green Bay, yet this line has fallen from -5.5 to -4. This sharp reverse line movement signals pro money backing Mitch Trubisky and the Bears plus the points. Chicago has value as a contrarian bet and a home divisional dog (61% ATS). Pros have also leaned on the under, dropping the total from 50.5 to 49.5. These teams met in Week 12 and the Packers rolled 41-25. More Sunday Moves
Browns -6.5 to -9.5 vs Steelers (PIT resting starters) Chargers -3.5 to -4.5 at Chiefs (KC resting starters) Washington + 1 to -3.5 at Eagles Washington-Eagles Over 42.5 to 44 Lions + 7 to + 4 vs Vikings Dolphins + 5 to + 1.5 at Bills
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Post by Makers on Jan 5, 2021 8:04:25 GMT -5
Saturday 1:05 p.m. ET: Indianapolis Colts at Buffalo Bills
This AFC non-division grudge match is the first playoff game of Wildcard Weekend. The Colts (11-5 SU, 8-8 ATS) snuck into the playoffs as the 7th seed, needing a win against the Jaguars (28-14) in Week 17 and a loss from the Dolphins in order to punch their ticket to the postseason. Indianapolis won four of their last five games and finished with + 89 in point differential on the season. Meanwhile, the Bills (13-3, 11-5 ATS) posted the 2nd-best regular in the NFL during the regular season and enter the playoffs as the 2-seed. Buffalo has won six straight and just crushed Miami 56-26, winning outright as 3-point home dogs. The Bills won the AFC East and finished the regular season + 126 in point differential.
This line opened with Buffalo listed as a 7-point home favorite. The public is all over the Bills, who look like an unstoppable juggernaut. However, despite more than two-thirds of bets laying the points, we've seen this line drop to 6.5. This sharp reverse line movement signals pro money grabbing the Colts + 7. Wild Card dogs getting 7 points or less are roughly 58% ATS over the past decade. Playoff dogs that see the line stay the same or move in their favor are 57% ATS. Indianapolis is also one of the top contrarian plays of the weekend as the public is loading up on Buffalo. We've also seen some under liability. The public is hammering the over, yet the total has remained frozen at 52 or dipped slightly to 51.5. Both teams were profitable to the over during the regular season (Colts 9-7, Bills 11-4-1). But historically, outdoor playoff unders have cashed roughly 57% over the past decade.
Sunday 1:05 p.m. ET: Baltimore Ravens at Tennessee Titans
This early Sunday showdown is a rematch of last year's Divisional Round, which saw 6-seed Tennessee shock the 1-seed Baltimore 30-24. The Ravens (11-5 SU, 10-5-1 ATS) caught fire down the stretch, winning their last five games to earn the 5-seed. Baltimore finished with a + 165 point differential, best in the NFL. Meanwhile, the Titans (11-5 SU, 7-9 ATS) won the AFC South and went 3-1 down the stretch, earning the 4-seed.
This line opened with Baltimore listed as a 3.5-point road favorite. The public is laying the points with the red-hot Ravens, yet this line has remained frozen at 3.5. In fact, many books are juicing up the Titans + 3.5 (-115), signaling some Tennessee liability and a possible fall down to the key number of 3. Tennessee has value as a contrarian home dog and a playoff dog in which the line stays the same or moves in their favor (57% ATS the past decade). Pros and Joes seem to be united on this over, driving the total up slightly from 54.5 to 55. Jerome Boger, the lead ref, has been profitable for home teams (56% ATS) and overs (60%). The Titans were the top over team in the regular season (12-3-1). The Ravens were 7-9 to the under.
Sunday 8:15 p.m. ET: Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers
This primetime Sunday night showdown is the final game of Wild Card Weekend. The Browns (11-5 SU, 6-10 ATS) enter as the 6-seed and are returning to the playoffs for the first time since 2002. Cleveland finished the regular season with a -11 point differential, the worst of any playoff team this season. On the flip side, the Steelers (12-4 SU, 10-6 ATS) started 11-0 but stumbled down the stretch, going just 1-4. Still, Pittsburgh earned the 3-seed and finished with a + 104 point differential. These two teams met last week, with the Browns winning 24-22 but the Steelers covering as 10-point road dogs. Pittsburgh rested most of their starters in that game, including Big Ben.
This line opened with Pittsburgh listed as a 3.5-point home favorite. Pros and Joes have both sided with the Steelers, driving this line up to -4.5. Historically, when a line moves at least 1-point toward a team in the playoffs, those teams have covered at a 58% clip over the past decade. Cleveland has value as a contrarian divisional dog in a primetime game with an inflated line. We've also seen some under money show up, dropping this total slightly from 47 to 46.5. Wild Card unders are roughly 64% over the past decade, with outdoor unders roughly 57%. The Browns were 9-7 to the over this season and the Steelers were 8-7-1 to the over.
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Post by Makers on Jan 6, 2021 8:28:59 GMT -5
Saturday 4:40 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks
This NFC West showdown between division rivals is the middle game of Saturday's tripleheader. The Rams (10-6 SU, 9-7 ATS) squeaked into the playoffs as the 6-seed, beating the Cardinals 18-7 as 1-point home favorites in the regular season finale. Los Angeles finished + 76 in point differential on the season. The Rams will lean on the coaching on Sean McVay and their stellar defense as they once again turn to rookie John Wolford in place of the injured Jared Goff. Wolford won his debut over Arizona last week, throwing for 231 yards, no touchdowns, 1 interception and rushed for 56 yards. Meanwhile, the Seahawks (12-4 SU, 8-8 ATS) finished the regular season on a high-note, winning four straight and beating the 49ers 26-23 in Week 17, although they failed to cover as 7-point road favorites. Seattle won the NFC West and earned the 3-seed, finishing + 88 in point differential for the season. This line opened with Seattle listed as a 4.5-point home favorite. This public is laying the short spread with Russell Wilson at home. However, we've seen a sharp move to the road dog, with the Rams falling from + 4.5 to + 4. Some shops are even touching 3.5. Playoff dogs with a line move in their favor of at least a half-point are roughly 75% ATS over the past decade. The Rams also have value as a divisional dog and a dog with a low total. The total has dipped slightly from 43 to 42.5. Both of these teams were profitable to the under this season, with the Rams 12-4 and Seahawks 9-7. John Hussey, the lead ref, has historically favored unders (57%). Outdoor playoff unders are roughly 57% over the past decade. The Seahawks beat the Rams 20-9 in Week 16. Los Angeles beat Seattle 23-16 in Week 10. Saturday 8:15 p.m. ET: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Washington Football Team
This primetime non-conference matchup is the late game on Saturday night. Tom Brady has led the Buccaneers (11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS) to the playoffs for the first time since 2007. Tampa Bay played their best football down the stretch, winning their final four games and waxing the Falcons 44-27 in Week 17, easily covering as 7-point home favorites. Tampa enters as the 5-seed and finished + 137 in point differential. Meanwhile, Washington (7-9 SU, 8-7-1 ATS) snuck into the playoffs by beating the Eagles 20-14 in Week 17, although they failed to cover as 6.5-point road favorites. Washington went 5-2 down the stretch and won the NFC East, earning the 4-seed. This line opened with the Bucs listed as a hefty 7.5-point or 8-point road favorite. The public is absolutely hammering Brady and the Bucs, expecting an easy win and cover. This lopsided action moved the line up to Tampa -9. That's when we saw some buyback on Washington, dropping the line back to 8.5. Washington is your top contrarian play of the weekend as they are only receiving about one-third of bets in a primetime game. Big playoff dogs of + 7 or more are roughly 57% ATS over the past decade. Tampa Bay is in prime teaser territory. If you drop them from -8.5 to -2.5 you pass through two key numbers (7 and 3). We've also seen some under money show up, dropping the total from 46.5 to 45. The Bucs are 9-7 to the over this season, but Washington is 10-5-1 to the under. This under matches a pair of profitable playoff systems: outdoor unders and Wild Card unders that drop (roughly 60% over the past decade). Sunday 4:40 p.m. ET: Chicago Bears at New Orleans Saints
This NFC late-afternoon Sunday showdown features the biggest spread of Wild Card Weekend. The Bears (8-8 SU, 8-8 ATS) got crushed by the Packers 35-16 in Week 17, failing to cover as 4.5-point home dogs. However, Chicago still snuck into the playoffs as the 7th and final seed thanks to a tie-breaker over the Cardinals. Chicago finished the regular season + 2 in point differential, second worst of all playoffs teams ahead of only Cleveland (-11). Meanwhile, the Saints (12-4 SU, 9-6-1 ATS) won the NFC South and finished tied for the second-best record in the conference, trailing only the Packers. New Orleans crushed Carolina 33-7 in Week 17, easily covering as 6-point road favorites. The Saints finished + 145 in point differential, best in the NFC. This line opened with New Orleans listed as a 9.5-point home favorite. This public is all over the Saints and happy to fade Mitchell Trubisky. This lopsided support has pushed the line up to the key number of 10. We've seen some buyback on the Bears at + 10, with juice hinting toward a possible drop back to 9.5. Chicago has value as a contrarian playoff dog with an inflated line. Big playoff dogs of + 7 or more are roughly 57% ATS over the past decade. We've also seen some under money hit the market, dropping the total from 47.5 to 47. The Saints were 10-6 to the over this season, with Chicago 8-8. Playoff dome game overs are roughly 70% over the past decade. The big question mark here is Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas. Both are questionable.
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Post by Makers on Jan 7, 2021 7:41:57 GMT -5
Monday 8 p.m. ET: Ohio State vs Alabama
This is the College Football National Championship game between undefeated powerhouses will be played outdoors at Hard Rock Stadium, home of the Miami Dolphins. Ohio State (7-0 SU, 4-3 ATS) enters ranked 3rd overall and just upset 2nd-ranked Clemson 49-28 in the semifinal, winning outright as 7-point dogs. The Buckeyes have outscored their opponents by an average score of 43-21 throughout the season. Now the Buckeyes will face their stiffest test of the year as they face top-ranked Alabama (12-0 SU, 8-4 ATS). The Crimson Tide took down 4th-ranked Notre Dame 31-14 in the semifinal, although Alabama failed to cover as 18.5-point favorites. It marked the second straight game that Alabama failed to cover. In the SEC Championship, Alabama beat Florida 52-46, but didn't cover as 16-point favorites. The Crimson Tide beat their opponents by an average score of 48-20 throughout the season. This line opened with Alabama listed as a 7-point favorite. The public sees Alabama as an auto-beat and a majority of tickets are laying the points with the Crimson Tide. We also saw some early sharp money hit Alabama -7 early, pushing the line up to -7.5. The line remained at 7.5 until Wednesday, when we saw more Alabama pour in and push the line up to -8. This move coincided with the news that Ohio State was dealing with COVID-19 issues affecting an entire position group. The next move will be telling. If you see this line tumble back down to 7.5, that will indicate some respected Buckeyes money pouring in. If you see it rise higher to -8.5, that will indicate further Alabama support and possibly more COVID issues for Ohio State. Alabama is a popular moneyline bet at -300 while the Buckeyes are + 250. The Buckeyes have value as a contrarian primetime dog in what will be the most heavily bet game of the season. Dogs are 5-1 ATS over the past six National Championships. We could also be looking at a shootout. The total opened at a sky high 76 but has taken in some respected under money, dropping the line down to 75. Both teams have been profitable to the over this season, with Ohio State 4-2-1 and Alabama 7-5. The weather looks to be ideal for Monday's kickoff, with high 60s, overcast and 5 MPH winds. One wild card to watch here is Alabama star wide receiver Jaylen Waddle. He is nursing an ankle injury and is considered a game-time decision.
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Post by Makers on Jan 9, 2021 10:55:22 GMT -5
1:05 p.m. ET: Indianapolis Colts at Buffalo Bills
The Colts (11-5 SU, 8-8 ATS) snuck into the playoffs as the 7th seed, needing a win against the Jaguars (28-14) in Week 17 and a loss from the Dolphins in order to punch their ticket to the postseason. Indianapolis won four of their last five games and finished with + 89 in point differential on the season. Meanwhile, the Bills (13-3, 11-5 ATS) tied for the 2nd-best record in the NFL during the regular season and enter the playoffs as the 2-seed. Buffalo has won six straight and just crushed Miami 56-26, winning outright as 3-point home dogs. The Bills won the AFC East and finished the regular season + 126 in point differential.
This line opened with Buffalo listed as a 7-point home favorite. The public is all over the Bills, who look like an unstoppable juggernaut. However, despite more than two-thirds of bets laying the points, we've seen this line drop to 6.5. Some books have even touched 6. This sharp reverse line movement signals pro money grabbing the Colts plus the points, ideally at + 7. Wild Card dogs getting 7-points or less are roughly 58% ATS over the past decade. Playoff dogs that see the line stay the same or move in their favor are 57% ATS. Indianapolis is also one of the top contrarian plays of the weekend as the public is loading up on Buffalo.
The Bills will be an incredibly popular teaser play this weekend, with many bettors taking Buffalo down from -6.5 to -0.5. We've also seen some under money show up. The public is hammering the over, yet the total has fallen from 52 to 51.5 or even 51. Both teams were profitable to the over during the regular season (Colts 9-7, Bills 11-4-1). But historically, outdoor playoff unders have cashed roughly 57% over the past decade. The weather calls for low 30s, partly cloudy and mild 5-10 MPH winds.
4:40 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks
The Rams (10-6 SU, 9-7 ATS) squeaked into the playoffs as the 6-seed, beating the Cardinals 18-7 as 1-point home favorites in the regular season finale. Los Angeles finished + 76 in point differential on the season. The Rams will lean on the coaching of Sean McVay and their stellar defense. We still don't know whether Jared Goff (broken thumb) or John Wolford will start at quarterback. Wolford won his debut over Arizona last week, throwing for 231 yards, no touchdowns, 1 interception and rushed for 56 yards. Meanwhile, the Seahawks (12-4 SU, 8-8 ATS) finished the regular season on a high-note, winning four straight and beating the 49ers 26-23 in Week 17, although they failed to cover as 7-point road favorites. Seattle won the NFC West and earned the 3-seed, finishing + 88 in point differential for the season.
This line opened with Seattle listed as a 4.5-point home favorite. This is the clearest "Pros vs Joes" game of the weekend as the public is hammering Russell Wilson at home, yet we've seen a sharp move to the road dog, with the Rams falling from + 4.5 to + 3. Pros targeted the Rams getting at least the hook (+ 3.5) or more). The Rams also have value as a contrarian divisional dog and a dog with a low total. The total has taken in some respected under money, falling from 42.5 to 42. Both of these teams were profitable to the under this season, with the Rams 12-4 and Seahawks 9-7. John Hussey, the lead ref, has historically favored unders (57%). Outdoor playoff unders are roughly 57% over the past decade. The Seahawks beat the Rams 20-9 in Week 16. Los Angeles beat Seattle 23-16 in Week 10.
8:15 p.m. ET: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Washington
Tom Brady has led the Buccaneers (11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS) to the playoffs for the first time since 2007. Tampa Bay played their best football down the stretch, winning their final four games and waxing the Falcons 44-27 in Week 17, easily covering as 7-point home favorites. Tampa enters as the 5-seed and finished + 137 in point differential. Meanwhile, Washington (7-9 SU, 8-7-1 ATS) snuck into the playoffs by beating the Eagles 20-14 in Week 17, although they failed to cover as 6.5-point road favorites. The Football Team went 5-2 down the stretch and won the NFC East, earning the 4-seed.
This line opened with the Bucs listed as a hefty 7.5-point road favorites. The public is rushing to the window to back Brady and the Bucs, expecting an easy win and cover. This lopsided action moved the line up to Tampa -8.5 or -9. Over the last 24-48 hours we've seen some buy back on Washington, dropping this line down to 8. Washington is your top contrarian play of the weekend as they are only receiving about one-third of bets in a primetime game. Big playoff dogs of + 7 or more are roughly 57% ATS over the past decade. Brady is 0-4 ATS this season in primetime games. We've also seen some under money show up, dropping the total from 46.5 to 44.5. The Bucs are 9-7 to the over this season, but Washington is 10-5-1 to the under. This under matches a pair of profitable playoff systems: outdoor unders and Wild Card unders that drop (roughly 60% over the past decade). The forecast calls for mid-30s with 10 MPH winds.
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Post by Makers on Jan 10, 2021 8:05:46 GMT -5
1:05 p.m. ET: Baltimore Ravens at Tennessee Titans
The Ravens (11-5 SU, 10-5-1 ATS) caught fire down the stretch, winning their last five games to earn the 5-seed. Baltimore crushed Cincinnati 38-3 in Week 17, easily covering as 13.5-point road favorites. The Ravens finished with a + 165 point differential, best in the NFL. Meanwhile, the Titans (11-5 SU, 7-9 ATS) won the AFC South and went 3-1 down the stretch, earning the 4-seed. Tennessee won a 41-38 thriller over Houston in Week 17, although they failed to cover as 7-point road favorites. The Titans finished + 52 in point differential for the season.
This line opened with Baltimore listed as a 3.5-point road favorite. The public is laying the points with the red-hot Ravens, yet we've seen this line stay at 3.5 or fall to the key number of 3. The number has been ping-ponging back from 3.5 to 3 for much of the week. Pros have pounced on Tennessee getting the hook (+ 3.5). Once it has fallen to 3, we've seen some buyback on Ravens -3. However, all liability has been toward Tennessee. This line never went to 4. Instead, it is either staying the same or going down, which indicates Titans respected action. Tennessee has value as a contrarian home dog and a playoff dog in which the line stays the same or moves in their favor (59% ATS over the last decade). Jerome Boger, the lead ref, has historically favored home teams (56% ATS).
4:40 p.m. ET: Chicago Bears at New Orleans Saints
The Bears (8-8 SU, 8-8 ATS) got crushed by the Packers 35-16 in Week 17, failing to cover as 4.5-point home dogs. However, Chicago still snuck into the playoffs as the 7th and final seed thanks to a tie-breaker over the Cardinals. Chicago finished the regular season + 2 in point differential, second worst of all playoffs teams ahead of only Cleveland (-11). Meanwhile, the Saints (12-4 SU, 9-6-1 ATS) won the NFC South and finished tied for the second-best record in the conference, trailing only the Packers. New Orleans crushed Carolina 33-7 in Week 17, easily covering as 6-point road favorites. The Saints finished + 145 in point differential, best in the NFC.
This line opened with New Orleans listed as a 9-point home favorite. This public is all over the Saints and happy to fade Mitchell Trubisky. This lopsided support has pushed the line up to the key number of 10. Chicago has value as a contrarian playoff dog with an inflated line. Big playoff dogs of + 7 or more are roughly 57% ATS over the past decade. We've also seen some sharp over money hit the market, driving the total up slightly from 47.5 to 48. Indoor playoff games have gone over roughly 70% of the time over the past decade. Alvin Kamara (COVID-19) and Michael Thomas (ankle) are both expected to play today. The Saints are 10-6 to the over this season. Chicago is 8-8.
8:15 p.m. ET: Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers
The Browns (11-5 SU, 6-10 ATS) enter as the 6-seed and are returning to the playoffs for the first time since 2002. Cleveland finished the regular season with a -11 point differential, the worst of any playoff team this season. On the flip side, the Steelers (12-4 SU, 10-6 ATS) started 11-0 but stumbled down the stretch, going just 1-4. Still, Pittsburgh earned the 3-seed and finished with a + 104 point differential. These two teams met last week, with the Browns winning 24-22 but the Steelers covering as 10-point road dogs. Pittsburgh rested most of their starters in that game, including Big Ben.
This line opened with Pittsburgh listed as a 3.5-point home favorite. Pros targeted the Steelers early, driving this line up to -4.5. But then on Tuesday morning news broke that head coach Kevin Stafanski and several other players and coaches tested positive for COVID-19. As a result, this line skyrocketed to Steelers -6. Historically, when a line moves at least 1-point toward a team in the playoffs, those teams have covered at a 58% clip over the past decade. Pittsburgh will be a very popular teaser play this weekend, as you could move Pittsburgh from -6 down to a pick'em. Cleveland has value as a contrarian divisional dog in a primetime game with an inflated line. We've also seen over money flood the market, driving the total from 46.5 to 47.5. The Browns were 9-7 to the over this season and the Steelers were 8-7-1 to the over. Both teams will be down their top corners due to COVID-19 (Denzel Ward and Joe Haden).
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Post by Makers on Jan 11, 2021 8:30:50 GMT -5
8 p.m. ET: Ohio State vs AlabamaThis CFP National Championship game between undefeated powerhouses will be played outdoors at Hard Rock Stadium, home of the Miami Dolphins. Ohio State (7-0 SU, 4-3 ATS) enters ranked 3rd overall and just upset 2nd-ranked Clemson 49-28 in the semifinal, winning outright as 7-point dogs. The Buckeyes have outscored their opponents by an average score of 43-21 throughout the season. Now the Buckeyes will face their stiffest test of the year as they face top-ranked Alabama (12-0 SU, 8-4 ATS). The Crimson Tide took down 4th-ranked Notre Dame 31-14 in the semifinal, although Alabama failed to cover as 18.5-point favorites. It marked the second straight game that Alabama failed to cover. In the SEC Championship, Alabama beat Florida 52-46, but didn't cover as 16-point favorites. The Crimson Tide beat their opponents by an average score of 48-20 throughout the season. Alabama aims to win their 6th National Championship under head coach Nick Saban. This line opened with Alabama listed as a 7-point favorite. The public sees Alabama as an auto-bet and a majority of tickets are laying the points with the Crimson Tide. We also saw some early sharp money hit Alabama -7 early, pushing the line up to -7.5. The line remained at 7.5 until Wednesday, when we saw more Alabama pour in and push the line up to -8.5. This move coincided with the news that Ohio State was dealing with COVID-19 issues affecting an entire position group. The next move will be telling. If you see this line tumble back down to 8 or lowers on game-day, that will indicate some respected Buckeyes money pouring in. If you see it rise to -9 or higher, that will indicate further Alabama support and possibly more COVID issues for Ohio State. Alabama is a popular moneyline bet at -310 while the Buckeyes are + 250. The Buckeyes have value as a contrarian primetime dog in what will be the most heavily bet game of the season. Dogs are 5-1 ATS over the past six National Championships. The total opened at a sky high 76. The public is torn. They want to bet the over but are also worried about the high total. However, pros seem to be leaning on this under as we've seen the number fall to 75.5 or 75. Both teams have been profitable to the over this season, with Ohio State 4-2-1 and Alabama 7-5. The weather looks to be ideal for tonight's kickoff, with low 70s, overcast and 5 MPH winds. One wild card to watch here is Alabama star wide receiver Jaylen Waddle. He is nursing an ankle injury and is considered a game-time decision.
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Post by Makers on Jan 12, 2021 11:11:23 GMT -5
Saturday 8:15 p.m. ET: Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills
This primetime showdown between AFC heavyweights is the marquee game on Saturday's two-game slate. The 5-seed Ravens (12-5 SU, 11-5-1 ATS) have won six-straight and just took down the Titans 20-13 in the Wild Card round, covering as 3.5-point road favorites. Now they travel to Western New York to face the 2-seed Bills (14-3 SU, 11-6 ATS). Buffalo has won seven straight, including a 27-24 win over the Colts in last week's playoff opener, although the Bills failed to cover as 7-point home favorites.
This line opened with Buffalo listed as a 3-point home favorite. The public is split and doesn't know whether to take the points or lay them. Despite this split ticket count, we've seen the Ravens move from + 3 to + 2. Some shops are even down to + 1.5. This sharp line move signals respected pro money getting down hard on Baltimore plus the points. Pros really loved Baltimore + 3 as soon as the line opened. Over the past decade, playoff teams with a line move of 1-point or more in their favor have gone 58% ATS. Playoff dogs are 64% ATS since 2017. Lamar Jackson is 5-1 ATS in his career as a dog. The total has risen slightly from 49 to 50. The Ravens are 10-7 to the under this season but the Bills are 12-4-1 to the over. Keep an eye on the weather. The early forecast calls for low 30s with 10 MPHS winds. The Bills enjoy a 1-day rest advantage, having played last Saturday while the Ravens played on Sunday.
Sunday 6:40 p.m. ET: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints
Bettors are in for a treat with this marquee Sunday showdown between divisional rivals and future Hall of Fame quarterbacks. The 5-seed Bucs (12-5 SU, 9-8 ATS) have won five-straight and just beat Washington 31-23 on Wild Card Weekend, although they failed to cover as 10-point road favorites. The 2-seed Saints (13-4 SU, 10-6-1 ATS) have won three straight, including a 21-9 victory over the Bears in last week's playoff opener, covering as 11-point home favorites. This line opened with New Orleans listed as a 3.5-point home favorite. Some shops opened closer to -4. Pros immediately pounced on Tom Brady and the Bucs getting the hook (+ 3.5), forcing oddsmakers to drop this line down to the key number of 3. The next move is critical. If you see this rise back to 3.5, it will likely indicate buyback on the Saints -3. If you see it stay the same or even creep down to 2.5, that will signal continued support for the Bucs. The Saints went 2-0 against the Bucs this season, winning 34-23 in Week 1 and 38-3 in Week 9. Divisional round dogs are roughly 59% ATS over the past decade. We've also seen pros hit this over, pushing the total up from 50 to 52. Playoff dome overs are roughly 65% over the past decade. Both teams are 10-7 to the over this season. Tampa is expected to get star linebacker Devin White back from the COVID list. The Bucs enjoy a 1-day rest advantage, having played last Saturday while the Saints played on Sunday.
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