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Post by Makers on Sept 13, 2021 5:07:21 GMT -5
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Post by Makers on Sept 15, 2021 5:25:33 GMT -5
1:05 p.m. ET: Miami Marlins (61-84) at Washington Nationals (60-85)
These NL East rivals have split the first two games of the series, with Miami winning the opener 3-0 as -115 road favorites and then the Nats bouncing back with an 8-2 victory on Tuesday as -145 home favorites. In this afternoon's rubber match, Miami starts lefty Trevor Rogers (7-7, 2.73 ERA) and Washington counters with fellow southpaw Josh Rodgers (1-0, 3.65 ERA). This line opened with the Marlins listed as a short -110 road favorite and the Nats a + 100 home dog. Pros seem to be leaning on Miami at a short chalk price as we've seen the Marlins move from -110 to -120. The Marlins are 24-17 as a favorite this season. The Nats are 27-65 as a dog. Sharps are also leaning on the over, as the total is 8.5 with heavy over juice -120. hinting at a jump up to 9. The forecast at Nationals Park is conducive to offense: mid 80s with 10-MPH winds blowing out to center field. The over is 16-5 in the last 21 home games for the Nats.
6:35 p.m. ET: Cincinnati Reds (75-70) at Pittsburgh Pirates (53-91)
The Pirates stole last night's series opener 6-5, cashing as + 150 home dogs. The Reds have now lost three straight and fall to 4-11 over their last 15 games. Meanwhile, the lowly Pirates haven't packed it in despite their record. Pittsburgh is 5-2 over their last seven games. In tonight's rematch, Cincinnati starts righty Vladimir Gutierrez (9-6, 4.05 ERA) and Pittsburgh taps fellow righty Mitch Keller (4-11, 6.29 ERA). This line opened with the Reds listed as a -155 road favorite and the Pirates a + 140 home dog. The public is hammering the Reds to get back on track and win tonight. However, despite this lopsided betting Cincinnati has fallen from -155 to -145. This signals some wiseguy action buying low on the Pirates as a home dog with a decent payout (+ 140 to + 130). Pittsburgh has value as a divisional dog with a high total (9) and a home dog with a line move in their favor. The over is 8-2 in the last ten matchups between these teams. Jim Wolf, the home plate ump, has historically favored overs (54%).
7:10 p.m. ET: St. Louis Cardinals (75-69) at New York Mets (72-74)
The Cardinals have taken the first two games of this non-division series. St. Louis won the opener 7-0 as -110 road favorites and then won again on Tuesday 7-6 as + 155 road dogs. The Cardinals have now won four straight while the Mets fall to 2-5 over their last seven. In tonight's series finale, St. Louis hands the ball to veteran lefty Jon Lester (5-6, 4.75 ERA) and New York counters with righty Tylor Megill (3-4, 4.06 ERA). This line opened with the Mets listed as a -140 home favorite and the Cardinals a + 130 road dog. The public is riding the red-hot Cardinals at a plus-money payout. However, this line has moved further to the Mets (-140 to -155). This signals some sharp "Fade the Trendy Dog" reverse line movement on the contrarian favorite Mets to eke out a win and avoid the sweep. Non-division home favorites are 452-288 (61.1%) this season. New York is 51-37 as a favorite. St. Louis is 33-41 as a dog. We could also be looking at a higher scoring game in this one. The total opened at 8 and the over is juiced up to -120, indicating a possible rise up to 8.5. The forecast calls for high 70s at Citi Field with 10-15 MPH winds blowing out to dead-center, which aids the offense.
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Post by Makers on Sept 16, 2021 5:11:56 GMT -5
8:20 p.m. ET: New York Giants (0-1) at Washington Football Team (0-1)
This Thursday Night Football matchup features a pair of division rivals looking to bounce back from disappointing opening week losses. The Giants got manhandled by the Broncos, losing 27-13 and failing to cover as 3-point home dogs. Similarly, Washington fell to the Chargers 20-16, losing outright as 2-point home favorites. At BetMGM, the Giants' updated season win total is 5.5 with the over juiced to -145. Washington's updated win total is 7.5 with the under juiced to -120.
This line opened with Washington listed as a 4.5-point home favorite. With Ryan Fitzpatrick injured for the Football Team and back-up Taylor Heinicke starting in his place, respected money has pounced on the Giants getting points, dropping the line from 4.5 to 3.5. Several shops are juicing up the Giants +3.5 at -115, signaling a possible fall to the key number of 3. those looking to back the Giants will want to pounce on the hook before it evaporates, that way a three-points Giants' loss will result in a cover instead of a push. On the flip side, Washington backers would be inclined to wait to see if it falls to -3, that was a three-point win pushes instead of loses.
The Giants check off several boxes for value-minded bettors. New York is contrarian in a heavily bet primetime game, as just under two-thirds of bets are laying the points with Washington at home. The Giants are also a divisional dog in a low total game. Divisional matchups provide an edge to dogs as the built in familiarity levels the playing field and leads to close games, which benefits the team getting points. Low totals benefit dogs as the fewer amount of expected points scored makes it harder for the favorite to cover the number. Dogs went 12-4 ATS (75%) in Week 1. Also, teams coming off a Week 1 loss of 10-points or more have gone 21-10 ATS (67.7%) in Week 2 over the past decade. This speaks to the importance of not falling victim to recency bias. When two winless teams face off, the dog is 34-24 ATS (58.6%) the past decade. The lead ref, Scott Novak, has historically favored road teams (40-27 ATS, 59.7%). One injury to monitor here: Giants star running back Saquon Barkley is questionable with a knee injury.
We could also be looking at a lower scoring game in this one. This total opened at 42.5 and has fallen to 40.5 despite a majority of public bets taking the over. This signals wiseguy reverse line movement on the under. Primetime unders were 27-19 (58.7%) last season. Both of these teams went under in Week 1. Unders went 9-7 across the NFL in Week 1.
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Post by Makers on Sept 18, 2021 5:30:35 GMT -5
12 p.m. ET: Michigan State at Miami Florida Michigan State (2-0) enters this clash with an undefeated record, crushing Northwestern 38-21 in the opener and then taking down Youngstown State 42-14 last week. On the flip side, Miami (1-1, ranked 24th) got crushed by Alabama in the opener 44-13 and barely got by Appalachian State 25-23 last week. This line opened with Miami listed as a 6-point home favorite. T he public thinks this line is way too high and they're rushing to the window to grab the points with Michigan State. However, despite this lopsided betting we've seen Miami move from -6 to -6.5. This signals some sharp "Fade the Trendy Dog" reverse line movement on the home team. Miami has value as a rare contrarian favorite with a line move in their favor. Essentially all liability is with the Hurricanes despite the public backing the Spartans. 3:30 p.m. ET: Alabama at Florida This SEC showdown between ranked teams is the most heavily bet game of the Saturday slate. Alabama (2-0, ranked 1st) has crushed its first two opponents, outscoring Miami and Mercer by a combined margin of 92-27. Similarly, Florida (2-0 ranked 11th) has outscored FAU and USF by a combined margin of 77-34. This line opened with Alabama listed as a 15-point road favorite. The public is heavily in favor of Alabama, who is consistently a public darling every time they take the field. However, this line has dipped slightly from 15 to 14.5, indicating some wiseguy support for Florida at home plus the points. Florida is your top contrarian play of the day, as they're only getting about one-third of bets in the most heavily bet game of the day. We could also be looking at a higher scoring affair. The total opened at 57.5 and has been steamed up to 60. The forecast calls for humid temperatures in the high 80s, which aids the offense and gasses the defense. 3:30 p.m. ET: USC at Washington State This PAC 12 matchup is garnering headlines as it marks the first game for USC since firing head coach Clay Helton. The Trojans (1-1) took care of business against San Jose State 30-7 in the opener, covering as 14-point home favorites. But then USC fell to Stanford 42-28 last week, losing 42-28 as 17.5-point home favorites, which prompted Helton's dismissal. Meanwhile, Washington State (1-1) rebounded from a 36-23 loss to Utah State, losing outright as a 17-point home favorite, with a 44-24 win over Portland State, although the Cougars failed to cover as 31-point home favorites. This line opened with USC listed as an 8.5-point road favorite. Some books opened closer to -9 or even -10. The public is hammering USC, expecting a spirited effort from the Trojans after getting Helton fired. However, this line has tumbled down to 7.5. This sharp reverse line movement indicates pro money grabbing Washington State plus the points at home. The Cougars have value as a buy-low conference home dog who has yet to cover. 7:30 p.m. ET: Auburn at Penn State This primetime clash features a pair of undefeated teams and ranked opponents. Auburn (2-0, ranked 22nd) has rolled over Akron and Alabama State by a combined score of 122-10. Meanwhile, Penn State (2-0, ranked 10th) upset Wisconsin 16-10 in the season opener, winning outright as 5.5-point road dogs, and then they crushed Ball State 44-13 last week, covering as 22.5-point home favorites. This line opened with Penn State listed as a 7-point home favorite. The public says give me the higher ranked home favorite and they're happy to lay the points with the Nittany Lions. However, we've seen this line fall from -7 to -5. This indicates some sharp action in favor of Auburn, triggering a two-point steam move in favor of the Tigers. More Saturday Line Moves
Coastal Carolina -11 to -14 at Buffalo Temple 16.5 to 14.5 vs Boston College Georgia Tech-Clemson over 51 to 52.5 Utah State-Air Force over 51.5 to 54 Louisiana Tech 13.5 to 11 vs SMU Army-UConn Under 51.5 to 47.5 Minnesota-Colorado Under 50 to 48.5
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Post by Makers on Sept 18, 2021 5:32:13 GMT -5
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Post by Makers on Sept 18, 2021 6:08:47 GMT -5
Saturday Chris Andrews is the Sportsbook Director at the South Point in Las Vegas, and has been a Nevada bookmaker for 30 years.
Michigan State at No. 24 Miami (-6, 56.5) ABC, noon ET
I opened Miami -6.5. Sharps took Sparty + 6.5. One guy bought up to + 7 (I charge -120 to move a half point toward the 7 from either direction). I’m at Miami -6 right now. I’m surprised Miami has played so poorly this season: It was a contest with Alabama and then the Hurricanes barely got by Appalachian State last week. I expected better.
A quick side note. You might be wondering if you should “buy” half points in college football like that bettor I just mentioned. Generally speaking, I advise against it. College scoring is so volatile that the average game misses the spread by double digits. That’s why you shouldn’t bet teasers in the colleges (those extra points often don’t even mean anything) or buy points. In the case of Sparty, I can understand his thinking.
Best way to summarize it: Sportsbooks are happy when customers buy points.
No. 15 Virginia Tech at West Virginia (-2.5, 50.5) FS1, noon ET
I opened West Virginia -3. A bettor took Virginia Tech + 3 for a limit bet. I’m at 2.5 right now. All the small bets have been on Virginia Tech, too. Very little interest in West Virginia so far. Sharps often like dogs in regional rivalries because they know they’ll get a big effort. Big recruiting game for the programs.
No. 16 Coastal Carolina (-14, 57.5) at Buffalo ESPN2, noon ET
We got some interest here, which isn’t something we used to say about Coastal Carolina games! Now, though, the Chanticleers have become a TV attraction. I opened Coastal Carolina -13. They laid me the -13, and -13.5. I’m at -14, with nothing yet coming in on Buffalo. I think it’s inevitable that I’ll go to -14.5. If that doesn’t stop the chalk, I’ll have to keep going to -15.
Nebraska at No. 3 Oklahoma (-22.5, 62) FOX, noon ET
You may be surprised to read we’re getting a lot of two-way action here. I opened Oklahoma -22.5. I’m still there because betting has split -- just what we like. Oklahoma showed enough vulnerability vs. Tulane that many bettors want the dog at that high price in a highly publicized rivalry renewal.
No. 8 Cincinnati (-4, 50) at Indiana ESPN, noon ET
Before the season started, my good friend Chris Fallica of ESPN encouraged me to include Cincinnati in the South Point’s national championship “group” prop. The Bearcats are grouped with Alabama, Penn State, Iowa State, Texas and Miami. That group has received about 75% of the money. My price is down from + 225 to + 120. We’ll see Saturday if Cincinnati deserves its “sleeper” status (we know Alabama deserves its superpower status). I opened Bearcats -3.5 and some bettors laid that. One bought down to -3. I went to Cincy -4. They’re still betting me -4, though I see mostly -3.5’s at other stores. No Indiana money yet.
Purdue at No. 12 Notre Dame (-7.5, 58.5) NBC, 2:30 p.m. ET
Another well-bet game. I opened Notre Dame -7. First action was a limit bet on the Irish that “bought” down to -6.5 (again, I don’t encourage recreational bettors to do this … the house gets the best of it when extra juice is involved). I went to ND -7.5, and bettors laid that as well. When I went to 8, there was buy back on Purdue. I’m back at ND -7.5 now. Action is pretty well split, though I’m vulnerable to a 7 because of that first limit bet. I’ve downgraded Notre Dame in my Power Ratings after the first two weeks. That close win at Florida State looked much worse after lowly Jacksonville State won on the same field, and last week Notre Dame barely got past Toledo.
USC (-8.5, 62) at Washington State FOX, 3:30 p.m.
I included this game on our list because USC fired Clay Helton after its blowout loss to Stanford. I lowered the Trojans’ rating because he was popular with his players (even if bettors were constantly cursing him). My opener of USC -8.5 has been getting pretty good action both ways. Bettors in favor of the firing don’t seem to mind laying single digits with the much more talented roster. Washington State is obviously a dangerous home dog if USC does come in distracted.
No. 1 Alabama (-14.5, 59.5) at No. 11 Florida CBS, 3:30 p.m.
Game of the day based on rankings, not the pointspread. I opened ‘Bama -15.5. My first bet was on the Crimson Tide, so I went to -16. Sharps took Florida + 16, then took + 15.5, then took + 15. I’m now at ‘Bama -14.5. I still see some 15’s out in the marketplace. Remember: You don’t get rich betting against Nick Saban. Sharps are betting against him this week at + 15 or higher. I don’t mind the relatively rare chance to root for him.
No. 22 Auburn at No. 10 Penn State (-5, 53) ABC, 7:30 p.m. ET
Great betting game. We’re going to get a lot of action in this prime-time showcase. It’s another big “white out” for the Nittany Lions, and it’s National TV vs. a ranked SEC opponent. I opened Penn State -6.5. They took the dog at + 6.5, at + 6, and again at + 5.5. I finally started to get some money back on Penn State at -5. I think that’s where the game will settle. You South Point regulars know I’ll be wearing my Penn State shirt Saturday night. That would have been true even if all the early money hadn’t come in on Auburn.
Virginia at No. 21 North Carolina (-8, 66.5) ACC Network, 7:30 p.m.
I probably haven’t adjusted Carolina as much as I should have. We opened UNC -9. Sharps took Virginia + 9, took Virginia + 8.5 and are still taking Virginia + 8. I’m seeing some 7.5’s out there, and may have to go there myself. No money yet on the favorite. Carolina looked awful in its season opener vs. Virginia Tech. This Virginia team has a creative offense that should only get better as the season progresses. Bronco Mendenhall’s team is a dog that could cover clean, or score enough late to come through the back door. I opened this spread too high.
Oklahoma State at Boise State (-4, 57.5) FS1, 9 p.m. ET
Another great betting game. TV networks seem to be placing a higher priority on West Coast “prime-time” telecasts. We love that here in Las Vegas. I opened Boise State -5. Sharps took Okie State at + 5 and at + 4.5. Recreational bettors are stepping in on Boise State -4. I think smart money will stick with the Cowboys. I might end up as low as 3.5 because I’d rather be positioned on the side of the sharps. We’ll talk more about that through the course of the season. Sportsbooks love being “with” the sharps against the public, particularly having 11/10 vigorish in our favor.
No. 19 Arizona State (-3.5, 51) at No. 23 BYU ESPN, 10:15 p.m.
Good two-way action at the opener of ASU -3.5. If you’re thinking of betting the home dog, remember that BYU is in a letdown spot after that emotional rivalry upset of Utah last week. I may have been in the minority, but I Iiked Arizona State’s hiring of Herm Edwards. I think, eventually, Sun Devils fans will look back and say, “we hired the right guy.” Possibly telling here that sharps didn’t bet BYU with the hook. If smart money thought the home dog was a good bet at the opener, that line would be a solid 3 by now.
Fresno State at No. 13 UCLA (-11, 63) Pac-12 Network, 10:45 p.m.
See what I mean about these great late matchups?! We’re going to write a lot of business on this game. Fresno State took Oregon to the wire the week before the Ducks stunned Ohio State. UCLA scored big for investors that same Saturday against LSU. I opened UCLA -11. First money drove the line up to 11.5. Sharps bet it back to 11.
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Post by Makers on Sept 19, 2021 5:19:13 GMT -5
1 p.m. ET: San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles
Both of these NFC opponents are coming off Week 1 victories. The 49ers (1-0 SU, 0-1 ATS) beat the Lions 41-33, although they failed to cover as 9.5-point road favorites. Meanwhile, the Eagles (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS) dominated the Falcons 32-6, winning outright as 3.5-point road dogs. This line opened with San Francisco listed as a 3.5-point road favorite. The public is happy to lay the points with the high-flying 49ers. However, this line has actually fallen from 49ers -3.5 to -3. This signals some sharp reverse line movement on the Eagles, with wiseguys pouncing on Philadelphia plus the hook ( 3.5) at home. San Francisco has to overcome the challenge of being a West Coast team traveling East for a 1 p.m. ET game, which oftentimes screws up the body clocks of players. San Francisco is also playing their second straight road game, which can be a difficult schedule spot. Brad Allen, the lead referee, has historically favored home teams (58-47 ATS, 55.2%).
1 p.m. ET: Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins
The Bills dropped their season opener to the Steelers 23-16 last week, losing outright as 6.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the pesky Dolphins walked into Foxboro and upset the Patriots 17-16 as 3.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Buffalo listed as a 3.5-point home favorite. The public says the Bills are a great team and have to bounce back and roll Miami. However, despite this lopsided betting, we've seen the line remain stagnant at 3.5. In fact, some shops look to be inching down to 3. This signals some sharp line freeze action and possible reverse line movement buying low on the Dolphins, particularly at 3.5 with the hook. Miami has value as a contrarian home divisional dog. Divisional dogs often bark loudest due to the built in familiarity leveling the playing field. September divisional dogs are roughly 60% ATS over the past decade.
1 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Rams at Indianapolis Colts
This non-conference matchup is one of the ultimate buy-low, sell-high plays of Week 2. The Rams crushed the Bears 34-14 on Sunday Night Football, easily covering as 9.5-point home favorites. On the flip side, the Colts fell to the Seahawks 28-16, failing to cover as 3-point home dogs. This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a 4-point road favorite. The public can't believe this line is so low and they're rushing to the window to lay the points with the Rams, expecting an easy blowout win and cover. However, despite this lopsided betting toward Los Angeles, the line has remained at -4 or even dropped to -3.5. This signals some wiseguy liability on the Colts. The Rams are also in a tough schedule spot, as they're a West Coast team going East for an early 1 p.m. game. Indianapolis is one of the top contrarian plays of the week as well, as roughly 75% of tickets are riding with the Rams.
4:05 p.m. ET: Minnesota Vikings at Arizona Cardinals
The public perception of these teams couldn't be more different. The Vikings just fell to the lowly Bengals 27-24, losing outright as 3-point road favorite. Meanwhile, the Cardinals looked unstoppable in a dominant 38-13 victory over the Titans, winning outright as 2.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Arizona listed as a 4.5-point home favorite. The public is pounding the Cardinals, who looked far better in Week 1 than the Vikings. However, this line has fallen from 4.5 to 3.5, signaling sharp reverse line movement on the road dog. Short road dogs 6 or less are 6-1 ATS this season and went 51-33 ATS (61%) last season. Dogs that missed the playoffs last year, last Minnesota, went 9-2 ATS in Week 1.
More Sunday Moves
Saints-Panthers 46.5 to 44.5
Bengals 3 to 2.5 at Bears
Raiders-Steelers Under 48 to 46.5
Patriots -3.5 to -6 at Jets
Falcons-Bucs Under 53 to 51.5
Titans-Seahawks Over 53 to 54
Chargers-Cowboys Over 52 to 55
Chiefs -2.5 to -3.5 at Ravens
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Post by Makers on Sept 19, 2021 5:24:06 GMT -5
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Post by Makers on Sept 19, 2021 5:31:33 GMT -5
SundayOverreactions abound throughout the NFL Week 2 card with results from Week 1 still fresh in everyone’s mind and the public is betting as if those results are the gateway to winning this week. The favorites went 3-13 ATS last week helping the sportsbooks to a large first-week win. Nine of the underdogs won outright. The average Joe has to regroup while sharps and the sportsbooks think they have a good read on their NFL ratings. Of the 15 games we have between Sunday and Monday, three of them are double-digit favorites, seven are favorites of -6 or higher, and seven of them are hovering around 3, either 2.5, 3, or 3.5. The lone game not represented there is the Chiefs going from -3.5 to -4 at Baltimore for the Sunday Night Football game. Station Casinos sportsbook director Jason McCormick said his 18 books across the local areas of Las Vegas have seen the most public action on the Rams, Cardinals, and Saints. South Point sportsbook director Chris Andrews gave out the same three teams. This is a combination of ticket counts and parlay money. The public always seems to derive at the same teams based on what they saw last. After being jilted by their forever loves last week when the Bills, Chiefs, and Packers didn’t cover, they’ve found new loves. We all want to win and win big which means the most impressive offenses usually get the public attention the next week and it’s amplified after the first week. The Saints beat the Packers 38-3, the Cardinals won 38-13 at Tennessee, and the Rams won an isolated Sunday night game impressively, 34-14 against the Bears. That’s it, the psychological profile of the average Joe NFL bettor. What about the popular regulars like the Chiefs and Bills?“The public is on the Chiefs and Bills, just not as much as those three, but close,” said McCormick. The public hates the Ravens this week more than the Chiefs so the Chiefs are still in even though they didn’t cover, but did come back to win at home against the Browns last week. So what about the Packers this week after the Saints exposed Aaron Rodgers for still being in vacation mode? No one jumped on the Monday night number where the Las Vegas SuperBook opened the Packers -10.5 and are -11 on Friday. Normally always a Packers supporter, I think we’ll see split sentiment from the public finding reason to take the Lions plus-double-digits. McCormick says the sharpest play they’ve had this week is on the Eagles, Panthers, and Vikings, all three who are facing opponents coming off impressive wins. The Saints are -3 -120 at the Panthers, the 49ers are -3 EVEN, and the Cardinals are -3.5 against the visiting Vikings Andrews at the South Point also has sharp play on the Colts who are getting +3.5 from the visiting Rams. So you can see what’s going on in Week 2. The sharps and public are severely divided on several games. The Bills have been bet up from -3 at the Westgate to -3 -120 for their game at Miami. Miami comes off a 17-16 win at New England, the Bills just got upset at home after holding the Steelers to no points in the first half. Miami is content, Buffalo is hungry, embarrassed, motivated, and maybe even desperate for a win. Circa Sports has the Bills -3.5 -105 and the South Point is -3.5, flat, as they are with all their football spreads. The Texans come off an impressive win as a home dog against the Jaguars, 37-21, and the sportsbooks are still making all the Browns fans lay -13 as the Texans visit. The Bengals have been bet at +3 at Chicago down to +2.5. One team, the Bengals, looked good last week with a thrilling overtime win against the Vikings while the Bears stuck with Andy Dalton and got killed at Los Angeles. As of Friday, no word if Dalton or rookie Justin Fields will start. How is it that everyone is so smart with the Bears QB decision but head coach Matt Nagy knows better? Is he watching different game film of Dalton from the past two seasons? No arm, can’t run, and can’t make quick decisions is a bad trio for any QB. Dalton has them all, but he’s a veteran so that helps him better the team. The NFL is a now league and Nagy appears to be ready to sink the ship just to show he’s in charge and knows better. Bigger and better battles to fight than make the stand for Andy Dalton. First coach to be fired? The big win by the Raiders means nothing this week at Pittsburgh except betting against the team that won an emotional game Monday night has a short week and plays Sunday at a 10 am PT start time. Short week off an emotional high. Steelers are -6 and -6.5 everywhere with the majority of bet tickets written on them. The Broncos are getting sent flowers again by the public. Last week’s 27-13 win at the Giants impressed many, especially with QB Teddy Bridgewater converting third downs routinely. Everything fell into place. The Broncos have dropped from -6.5 to -6 at Jacksonville even though hardly anyone is taking the Jaguars. One of the biggest moves of the week is the Patriots going from -3.5 to -6 for their game at the Jets. Bill Belichick off a loss doesn’t sound as scary a prospect for the opponent without Tom Brady as it did in the old days. The Cardinals have dropped from 4-point home favorites to -3.5 against the Vikings. The main thing I worry about with the Cards is head coach Kliff Kingsbury being so tolerant in his team making the same dumb penalties over and over. There are no repercussions. It will continue and I'll bet they lose at least four games this season because of it happening at crucial moments. Perhaps the most interesting game of Sunday is the Cowboys at Chargers which has been an evenly bet game although the Chargers went from -3 to -3.5 EVEN at the Superbook. The SuperBook took a sharp wager on the Chargers to push them off 3.
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Post by Makers on Sept 21, 2021 5:15:11 GMT -5
6:10 p.m. ET: Kansas City Royals (69-82) at Cleveland Indians (73-76)
Both of these AL Central rivals are out of the playoff picture and playing for pride the rest of the way. The Royals have taken the first two games of this series, winning the opener 7-2 as + 145 road dogs and then winning against last night 4-2 as + 120 road dogs. In tonight's rematch, Kansas City hands the ball to lefty Daniel Lynch (4-5, 5.34 ERA) and Cleveland counters with righty Cal Quantrill (6-3, 2.89 ERA). This line opened with the Indians listed as a short -130 home favorite and the Royals a + 120 road dog. Sharps have pounced on the Indians to bounce back, steaming Cleveland up from -130 to -140. Home favorites receiving 10-cents of steam or more are 380-242 (61.1%) this season. Cleveland is 38-23 as a favorite this season. Kansas City is 46-60 as a dog. The Indians have gone 11-3 against the Royals this season. We could also see some runs in this one. The total opened at 9 and it's being juiced up over -120, with some shops inching to 9.5. This indicates some respected over money. The forecast calls for mid 70s with 10-15 MPH winds blowing out to center,
7:10 p.m. ET: Toronto Blue Jays (84-66) at Tampa Bay Rays (93-58)
If the playoffs started today, both of these AL East rivals would be in the postseason. Toronto currently occupies the 2nd AL Wild Card spot while Tampa Bay leads atop the division by 7-games. The Rays took last night's series opener 6-4, winning as 115 home underdogs. In tonight's rematch, Toronto sends out righty Alek Manoah (6-2, 3.39 ERA) and Tampa Bay starts fellow righty Drew Rasmussen (3-0, 2.57 ERA). This line opened with the Rays listed as a short -110 home favorite and the Jays a + 100 road dog. The public doesn't know who to back, but pros seem to be meaning on the Rays once again, driving Tampa Bay up from -110 to -115. Short home favorites -130 or less are 245-185 (57%) this season, producing a roughly 6% ROI. Tampa Bay is 41-19 as a home favorite. The Rays are 10-7 against the Jays this season.
7:10 p.m. ET: New York Mets (73-77) at Boston Red Sox (86-65)
This Interleague showdown is crucial for both ballclubs. The Mets need to get hot fast in order to steal a Wild Card spot, trailing the second position by 6-games. Meanwhile, the Red Sox currently occupy the top Wild Card spot in the AL, but need to keep winning with the Jays, Yankees, A's and Mariners all just 3-games back or less of Boston. In tonight's opener, New York taps righty Marcus Stroman (9-12, 2.88 ERA) and Boston rebuttals with lefty Eduardo Rodriguez (11-8, 5.00 ERA). This line opened with the Red Sox listed as a -155 home favorite and the Mets a + 140 road dog. The public is laying the chalk with the Sox at Fenway, yet we've seen Boston fall from -155 to -140. This signals some sharp reverse line movement on the road dog Mets at a decent plus money payout (+ 140 to + 120). Teams coming off a win receiving at least 15-cents of steam are 257-172 ATS (60%) this season. New York also has value as a road dog with a high total. The total is 9.5 with the under juiced to -115, indicating some possible wiseguy under money.
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Post by Makers on Sept 22, 2021 5:34:02 GMT -5
1:10 p.m. ET: Chicago White Sox (85-66) at Detroit Tigers (74-78)Despite being eliminated from the playoffs, the Tigers have upset the White Sox in the first two games of this AL Central series. Detroit won the opener 4-3 as 200 home dogs and then won again yesterday 5-3 as 150 home dogs. In this afternoon's series finale, Chicago hands the ball to righty Reynaldo Lopez (3-3, 3.00 ERA) and Detroit counters with fellow righty Casey Mize (7-8, 3.64 ERA). This line opened with the White Sox listed as a -155 road favorite and the Tigers a 145 home dog. S harps like Chicago to avenge their previous losses and avoid the sweep, steaming the White Sox up from -155 to -170. Chicago has bounced back well from losses this season, going 42-22 (66 percent) after a loss. The White Sox are 60-49 against righties this season. The Tigers are 45-56 against righties. Chicago is 9-6 against Detroit this season. The total opened at 9 and some shops are juicing the over to -115. Weather could play a factor with the total. The forecast calls for 20 MPH winds out to dead center. 7:05 p.m. ET: Texas Rangers (55-96) at New York Yankees (85-67) The Yankees have taken care of business in the first two games of this series, winning the opener 4-3 as -260 home favorites and then winning again on Tuesday 7-1 as -250 home favorites. These games are huge for New York, who is only a half-game back of the second Wild Card spot in the AL, trying to catch the Red Sox and Jays. In tonight's series finale, Texas starts lefty Taylor Hearn (6-5, 4.52 ERA) and New York taps veteran righty Corey Kluber (5-3, 3.68 ERA). This line opened with the Yankees listed as a hefty -250 home favorite and the Rangers a 225 road dog. Pros and Joes aren't outsmarting themselves on this one. They're laying the chalk with the desperate Yankees at home, steaming New York up from -250 to -270. Non-division home favorites are 472-304 (61 percent) this season. Home favorites -200 or more are 196-82 (71 percent). The Yankees are 44-33 at home this season. Texas is 22-54 on the road. We could be looking at another lower scoring as well. The total is 9 with the under juiced to -115, signaling under liability and a possible fall to 8.5. Home plate ump Jeremie Rehak is 48-34 (59 percent) to the under historically. The forecast calls for 10-12 MPH winds blowing in from right center. The under is 2-0 this series. New York is 84-65 to the under this season. 8:40 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Dodgers (97-54) at Colorado Rockies (70-80) The Dodgers eked out a win in last night's series opener, edging the Rockies 5-4 in 10-innings and cashing as -200 road favorites. Los Angeles has already clinched a playoff spot but these games are still important as the Dodgers only trail the Giants by a half-game in the NL West. In tonight's rematch, Los Angeles gives the ball to righty ace Walker Buehler (14-4, 2.39 ERA) and Colorado rebuttals with fellow righty German Marquez (12-10, 4.16 ERA). This line opened with the Dodgers listed as a -185 road favorite and the Rockies a 170 home dog. Pros aren't afraid of the expensive price and have steamed Los Angeles up from -185 to -200. Teams coming off a win receiving 15-cents or more steam are 257-174 (60 percent) this season. Road favorites -200 or more off a win are 33-13 (72 percent). The Dodgers are 67-40 against righties and 96-51 as a favorite. The Rockies are 44-63 against righties and 45-66 as a dog. The Dodgers are 12-5 against the Rockies this season. We could also see some runs in this one. The total opened at 10.5 and the over is juiced to -120, signaling a possible rise to 11.
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Post by Makers on Sept 23, 2021 5:16:10 GMT -5
7:30 p.m. ET: Marshall at Appalachian StateThis non-conference showdown features a pair of 2-1 teams going at it. Marshall (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) started the season 2-0 and lost their first game last week to East Carolina, losing 42-38 as 10.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Appalachian State (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS) rebounded from a tough 25-23 loss to Miami in Week 2 with the 44-10 win over Elon, although they failed to cover as 35.5-point home favorites. This line opened with Appalachian State listed as a 7.5-point home favorite. T he public is rushing to the window to lay the points with App State. However, despite this lopsided betting we've seen App State fall from -7.5 to -7. This signals some respected money hitting Marshall plus the hook. Marshall also has value as an unpopular road dog in a heavily bet game. We've also seen some over money show up, steaming the total from 57 to 59.5. Marshall is 3-0 to the over this season, averaging 43.7 PPG on offense. 8:20 p.m. ET: Carolina Panthers at Houston TexansThe Panthers (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS) have been impressive through two games, taking care of the Jets 19-14 as 3.5-point home favorites in the opener and then upsetting the Saints 26-7 last week as 3-point home dogs. Meanwhile, the Texans (1-1 SU, 2-0 ATS) have also covered both of their games thus far, upsetting the Jags 37-21 as 3.5-point home dogs and then losing to the Browns 31-21 last week but covering as 13.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Carolina listed as a 7-point road favorite. A combination of early sharp money and steady public support has pushed Carolina up from -7 to -8. Before Tyrod Taylor got hurt, the early line was Carolina -3.5. With rookie Davis Mills starting, the opener was adjusted to -7. If you missed the early number on the Panthers, the Texans could be worth a look as a buy-low value play. The public is all over Carolina, which gives Houston contrarian value in a heavily bet primetime game, plus an inflated line at 8. Dogs are 21-11 ATS (66 percent) this season. Primetime dogs are 4-2 ATS this season and 32-21 (60 percent) since 2020. Alex Kemp, the lead official, has historically favored home teams (27-20, 58 percent ATS). If you like the Panthers, consider them in a teaser. You could tease Carolina down from -8 to -2, which goes through a pair of key numbers in 7 and 3. Going through multiple key numbers is the wiseguy approach to teasers. The total opened at 44 and despite the public taking the over, the line has fallen to 43. This reverse line movement signals some smart under money. One interesting trend we've seen this season: primetime overs are a perfect 6-0
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Post by Makers on Sept 23, 2021 5:18:12 GMT -5
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Post by Makers on Sept 24, 2021 5:27:41 GMT -5
6:30 p.m. ET: Middle Tennessee State at Charlotte
This Conference USA showdown features a pair of teams looking to avenge losses from last week. Middle Tennessee (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS) fell to UTSA 27-13, failing to cover as 11.5-point road dogs. Similarly, Charlotte (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS) lost to Georgia State 20-7, failing to cover as 4.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Charlotte listed as a 3-point home favorite. The public is rushing to the window to lay the short spread with the home team. However, despite this lopsided betting the line hasn't budged off of 3. This signals some sharp line freeze liability on Middle Tennessee plus the points. Short road dogs 4 or less are roughly 54-percent ATS over the past decade. Middle Tennessee also has value as a contrarian road conference dog in a heavily bet nationally televised game.
7 p.m. ET: Wake Forest at Virginia These ACC rivals are trending in opposite directions. Wake Forest (3-0 SU, 1-2 ATS) enters undefeated, having just rolled over Florida State 35-14, easily covering as 4.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, Virginia (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS) is coming off a disappointing loss to North Carolina, falling 59-39 and failing to cover as 7.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Virginia listed as a 4-point home favorite. The public is split down the middle and doesn't know who to back. But we've seen this line fall from 4 to 3.5, signaling some respected money grabbing the points with undefeated Wake Forest. We could also be looking at a higher scoring game in this one. The total has been steamed up from 67 to 68.5. Both teams are averaging roughly 40 PPG.
8 p.m. ET: Liberty at Syracuse
This primetime matchup is the most heavily bet game of the night. Liberty (3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS) has won and covered all three of their games so far this season. including a 45-17 win over Old Dominion last week, covering as 27.5-point home favorites. Syracuse (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS) has also been a good bet so far, covering in two of three games, most recently crushing Albany 62-24 and covering as 21.5-point home favorites. This line opened with Liberty listed as a 6-point road favorite. Pros and Joes are in unison on this one and both are laying the chalk with Liberty, which has driven the Flames up -6.5. Some shops look to be inching up to -7 as well. We've also seen some over money hit the market, pushing the total up from 52.5 to 54. Liberty beat Syracuse in the Carrier Dome 38-21 last season. Liberty is outscoring their opponents by an average margin of 38-12 this season while Syracuse is outscoring their opponents 33-17.
10 p.m. ET: UNLV at Fresno State
This late-night Mountain West clash features the biggest "David vs Goliath" spread of the night. UNLV (0-3 SU, 1-1-1 ATS) is winless on the season and just got waxed by Iowa State 48-3 last week, failing to cover as 32-point home dogs. On the flip side, Fresno State (3-1 SU, 4-0 ATS) is ranked 17th in the country and just upset UCLA 40-37 last week, winning outright as 11-point road dogs. This line opened with Fresno State listed as a 31-point home favorite. The public expects a blowout and is happily laying the big points with Fresno State. However, this line has dipped slightly to 30.5 or even 30. This signals some respected movement toward UNLV plus the points. UNLV has buy-low value as a contrarian unranked road conference dog vs a ranked opponent. Big dogs 30 or more are roughly 58-percent ATS since 2015.
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Post by Makers on Sept 24, 2021 5:30:28 GMT -5
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