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Post by Makers on Sept 25, 2021 5:02:49 GMT -5
Chris Andrews is the Sportsbook Director at the South Point in Las Vegas, and has been a Nevada bookmaker for 30 years. Sunday, Sept. 26 Arizona (-7.5, 52.5) at JacksonvilleI opened Arizona -7.5. Still there. I’m showing about a 10/1 ticket count on the Cardinals. But, there hasn’t been enough volume to lift the number. Arizona is featured in a lot of teasers because a six-point move crosses both the 7 and the 3. The Cards are also included in many money line parlays because people can’t see Jacksonville beating anybody. There’s a chance this spread will go as high as Arizona -9 by kickoff. When the market has “breached the wall” past the key number of seven, higher moves can come quickly on game day. Not much action on my opening total of 52.5. If I don’t mention a total in any game today, that means thing important has happened yet. Indianapolis at Tennessee (-5.5, 48)A lot of questions about the health of Colts quarterback Carson Wentz after hurting both ankles last week. Current expectation is that he’s going to play, but at less than 100 percent. I opened Tennessee -4.5. Sharps bet the Titans at -4.5, -5, and -5.5. I went to -6. When reports surfaced Friday morning that Wentz was taking snaps at practice, sharps took the Colts + 6. I’m back to 5.5. I think this line would be closer to Tennessee -4 if Indy was at full strength. Sharps knocked my opening total of 50 all the way down to 48. Some are still betting Under 48. Not enough yet to make me drop lower. Baltimore (-8.5, 49.5) at DetroitI opened Baltimore -9. Rumors started floating around about quarterback Lamar Jackson’s status. I dropped to -8.5, then took the game off the board for a day and a half. When it looked like he’d be ready to go for Sunday, I went back up at 8.5. This hasn’t been a heavily bet game because of the uncertainty. Baltimore will definitely be a six-point teaser choice if -8.5 is widely available this weekend. That fits the standard sharp strategy. Sportsbooks may move to -9 or -9.5 in self-defense. I’ll definitely be watching that myself. My opening total of 50 was bet down to 49.5. I’m getting Over interest at the new price. Good two-way action on the total. Washington at Buffalo (-7, 45.5)Sharps took the dog aggressively at my opener of Washington + 9. They also took + 8.5, + 8, and + 7.5. I’m all the way down to + 7. I’m starting to get money back on Buffalo at the seven. I’m still pretty heavy on Washington, so I’d like to take more on Buffalo before rising to 7.5. I can tell you I’ve been getting a lot of moneyline parlays that include Buffalo to win the game straight up. And, there was a lot of teaser play on the Bills when bettors could cross both the 7 and the 3 (from -8.5 down to -7.5 in progression). A messy one to explain. But, the public is rooting for Buffalo to win the game. Sharps see value at Buffalo -2.5, -2, and -1.5 in teasers, but Washington at + 7.5 or better as a straight bet. I’ll be hoping for a one-sided result that misses that big middle. My total opened 46.5. I dropped a full point to 45.5 after respected bets Under. New Orleans at New England (-2.5, 42.5)I opened New England -3. Friday morning, a really good customer that’s been with me a long time put $100,000 on the Saints. I dropped to New England -2.5. I can see other spots in the market adjusting downward. Some do that with vigorish rather than moving off the key number of three. I’m confident I’ll get Patriots action at -2.5. My opening total was 43. I took a pretty big bet on the Under and dropped to 42. Then I took a big bet on the Over. I’m at 42.5 right now, with even business from those two wagers. LA Chargers at Kansas City (-7, 54.5)Kansas City has been a very popular bet this week. I opened Chiefs -6.5. Sharps and the public bet that line up to -7. Recreational players are also heavy on the Chiefs in moneyline parlays and teasers. No interest in the Chargers yet. I’m trying to avoid moving off the key number of seven. I may have to for sharps to invest in this dog. Sharps definitely showed interest in the Under. I opened 55.5. They bet me Under 55.5 and 55. I’m at 54.5 now. Atlanta at NY Giants (-3, 48)One of those “nobody knows they’re playing” games. Like Denver/Jacksonville last week. I do have some money on the Falcons + 3. Not nearly enough to move off a key number. There has been some money line interest on Atlanta, too. Chicago at Cleveland (-7.5, 45)Cleveland is in the price range that’s going to drive teasers and moneyline parlays this week. Can’t imagine how many of those tickets will have some combination of Cardinals, Ravens, Bills, Chiefs, and Browns. On the pure team side, my opener of Cleveland -8 was bet down to -7 from sharp action. An accumulation of Browns bets at the key number lifted the line up to Cleveland -7.5. That’s where I sit now. An early forecast for wind helped drive sharp Under betting at my opener of 46.5. I’m down to 45, and I see other stores even lower. If you’re new to football betting, be aware that sharps pay significant attention to wind. They worry much less about rain or snow. Pounding Unders at windy locales on Saturdays and Sundays has made them a fortune over the years. Doesn’t always work…but more than pays the bills. Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (-3, 43)Pittsburgh’s dealing with a ton of injuries right now. I opened Steelers -5. Sharps took the five hard. I went straight to four. Sharps took the Bengals + 4, and the Bengals + 3.5. I’m all the way down to three. This line would be more like Pittsburgh -6 or -6.5 at full strength. I think we’ll get money back on the Steelers at -3. My ticket count is still pretty strong for Pittsburgh. Line fell because all the smart money was on the dog at + 3.5 or better. Another total where wind might be a factor (but not as windy as Cleveland). My opener of 44.5 has come down to 43 on sharp betting. Miami at Las Vegas (-4, 43.5)It wasn’t too long ago that Vegas sportsbooks had to defend against intense local betting interest in the Golden Knights’ NHL success story. This current 2-0 start for the Raiders is starting to feel like that. Two outright wins as underdogs. A head coach and quarterback with swagger. Sportsbooks were already heavy with Raiders action when the team was supposed to finish last in a tough division. They’re the one team I have to sweat futures bets on for the Super Bowl. My opening line of Vegas -4 was bet up to -4.5. But, with concerns that Derek Carr may not be 100 percent, the number has dropped back to -4. I’m writing even business, and seeing some 3.5’s out there. Sharps have bet the Under hard in this game. Jacoby Brissett struggled last week for Miami. Carr may be hobbled. My opener of 45.5 is down to 43.5. NY Jets at Denver (-10.5, 41.5)I opened Denver -10.5. There’s been public play on the Broncos. Not enough to move the line. I have been getting a lot of play on Denver in teasers. This doesn’t cross the 7 and the 3. Just the 10 and the 7. Sharps wouldn’t tease this, but, the public likes moving favorites down to less scary numbers. Those that don’t want to lay -10.5 will talk themselves into -4.5 in a teaser. My opening total of 41 has been bet up half a point to 41.5. Tampa Bay (-1, 55.5) at the LA RamsI opened pick-em. Other shops had opened earlier around Rams -2. They were hit with Tampa Bay money. My power ratings had the Rams by half-a-point. I can’t open a game at -0.5, obviously. I read the market and went with pick-em. Early money was on Tampa Bay, so I moved to Bucs -1. Still at -1. And, still getting bets on the Bucs! I have a feeling I’ll go higher on this one. My opening total of 54.5 has been bet up to 55.5. Sharps stopped at 55. The public may keep betting Over because this game will be previewed as a shootout all weekend. Seattle (-1, 54) at MinnesotaHaven’t moved off the opener of Seattle -1. Recreational bettors are on Seattle. I have a feeling I’ll go to -1.5 soon. If they keep betting me, I’ll move it. Sharps are hoping to see at least + 1.5 on the dog so they can move Minnesota past the 3 and the 7 to + 7.5 on teasers. The public usually only teases favorites down. Sharps like to move short dogs up. Both Tampa Bay and Minnesota may give them that opportunity in the late Sunday kicks. My opening total of 55.5 has been bet down to 54. Green Bay at San Francisco (-3, 50)I opened San Francisco -3.5. Sharps took the Packers pretty strong. I’m down to three. Bettors are starting to lay back -3 with Niners. They’ll have to hit the hosts harder to move me off the key number. This could end up being one of those -3/+ 3.5 games. I’ll try to avoid that if I can. My opening total of 47.5 has been bet all the way up to 50. Sharps that liked the Over wanted to get in before the public jumped on this high-profile TV game. Number will probably go higher given all the recent high-scoring prime-time showcases that have featured star quarterbacks. Monday, Sept. 27 Philadelphia at Dallas (-3.5, 51.5)We’ll do a ton of business on this game by kickoff. The Cowboys bring out the lovers and the haters. Philadelphia does as well to a lesser extent. Not much betting yet. My opener of Dallas -4 has come down to -3.5. Limited action so far on my opening total of 51.5. Be sure you monitor the markets on game day because that’s when this story will be told.
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Post by Makers on Sept 25, 2021 5:13:52 GMT -5
Saturday“It feels like normal again,” said Las Vegas SuperBook manager Randy Blum. “We’ve had a few weeks to get acclimated from all angles of booking college football.” It’s been an amazing season so far with lots of upsets among top-25 teams, including elites like Ohio State and Clemson already going down. So far on the season, bettors have gone 116-120-8 against-the-spread in college football with the only angle not hovering around 50% is home underdogs going 30-19-3 ATS (61%). Wise guys have found their way to a couple games they believe were priced poorly against their own ratings and fired away on a few games. “We’ve had a few games moved by sharp money starting with them betting against Oklahoma State who have dropped from -7.5 down to -6 taking Kansas State and they also bet against Texas dropping them from -11 down to -7.5 against Texas Tech,” Blum said. Sharps on Kansas State is interesting because QB Skylar Thompson is worth 4.5 points to backup Will Howard, or at least that was the number before last week’s impressive 38-17 win against Nevada that Howard started. Impressive for sure, but it was at home. However, the K-State defense has looked solid so far holding opponents to 54 yards rushing per game and only 15 ppg allowed. Oklahoma State QB Spencer Sanders was harnessed last week by only throwing 13 passes as the Cowboys featured Jaylen Warren who ran 32 times for 218 yards and 2 TDs. You’ll never guess what the most handled game of the week is at the SuperBook. “Our most handled game of the week so far has been Utah against Washington State,” Blum said. “I know it sounds crazy but that’s the game with the most money, most of it on Utah going from -14 up to -15, but it’s all public money. It’s one of our most bet public sides in parlays.” The public knows Washington State hasn't covered in their last six games while Utah is 6-0 ATS in their last six against losing teams, but they just lost back-to-back games on the road as a favorite. USC got out of a slump last week in Pullman, winning 45-14, to easily cover -7. Last year at Salt Lake City, Utah beat Washington State 45-28 to cover -11.5. Utah is 0-3 ATS so far this season.. Blum said in addition to Utah, his other top public plays are Oregon, Michigan State, and Iowa. Oregon has gone from an opener of -27 at Arizona to -28.5 at Circa Sports while Michigan State has gone from 3.5-point home favorites to -4.5 against Nebraska and Iowa has gone from 22-point home favorites to -23 against Colorado State. Arizona looks awful every week while Iowa has a 30-10 average score in winning all three of their games and Michigan State looks as though their back to mattering in college football again. Station Casinos VP Jason McCormick said their public play has been on Notre Dame, Michigan State and Iowa which is the identical three games South Point sportsbook director Chris Andrews gave me. Notre Dame is +6 playing Wisconsin at Soldier Field in Chicago. I don’t understand the number. What is going on? Are we sure this game isn’t in Madison? Wisconsin, who lost their home opener to Penn State, have fooled the ratings with impressive defensive metrics of allowing only 33 ypg rushing and 194 total ypg. It’s two games and one of them was a 34-7 home win against Eastern Michigan. Andrews and their top sharp sides bet this week has been Oregon State, Indiana, and Stanford. McCormick says theirs are Oregon State, Florida Atlantic, and Mississippi State. USC has dropped from a 13-point home favorite against Oregon State to -11 at Circa Sports, a signal that USC is overrated again, but also a bet against the USC QB situation. Will they start Kedon Slovis (neck) play or will Jaxson Dart get the start again. Dart threw for 391 yards and 4 TDs, 2 picks, in their win at Washington State last week. Dart didn’t practice Wednesday so expect Slovis to start. LSU has beat up cupcakes the last two weeks at home after losing at UCLA in the opener. Mississippi State comes off a tough loss at Memphis, 31-29, but the week before they were in almost the same situation as this week when they were a short home dog (+2) with NC State visiting. The cowbells played a frenzied effect on NC State, and it fired up the Miss State defense who shut down a very good offense. Sharps like the home angle here against an LSU squad that might not be as good as we thought coming into the season. Western Kentucky has sharp support because Indiana looks broken after losing at home to Cincinnati last week. Also, the 22,000 fans at Western Kentucky for this night game will be rocking all night with hopes of beating a Big Ten team, Circa Sports dropped Indiana from -10 to -9. I checked in with Marc Nelson up north at the Atlantis Reno and he says the bulk of his action will come Friday and Saturday and that no sharp money has passed through his bet windows yet, but he says his popular parlay plays have been Maryland, Army, and Rutgers with Rutgers having the highest ticket count. Rutgers? I can make a case for them getting +21 at Ann Arbor, but the public rarely takes underdogs and when they do it’s usually an elite program. But Rutgers, yes, okay Reno. It’s hard to ignore what Rutgers head coach Greg Schiano has done since coming back to the program last season. They’ve won and covered all three games this season. They’re disciplined. They believe in the process and I believe in their process after looking at some of their impressive stats. Third down defense? No 2 in the nation allowing only 17% to convert. Penalties? They don’t make them, only seven in three games. Turnover margin? They don’t make turnovers. None, while forcing eight themselves. But Michigan has won and covered all three of their games too. How about a live total to follow?“We’ve had one total that sharp money bet with Hawaii and New Mexico State moving up from 58.5 to 61.5,” Blum said. . That’s all I have for now, until next week here is a look at the initial moves when Circa Sports opened their college football numbers on Sunday at 11 am PT: Texas Tech +13 to +8 at Texas
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Post by Makers on Sept 27, 2021 5:11:41 GMT -5
8:15 p.m. ET: Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys
This Monday Night Football showdown features a pair of NFC East rivals with 1-1 records, although their public perceptions are vastly different, which may create a buy-low, sell-high opportunity. The Eagles (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS) crushed the Falcons 32-6 in the season opener, but then dropped their Week 2 game to the 49ers 17-11, failing to cover as 3-point home dogs. Meanwhile, the Cowboys (1-1 SU, 2-0 ATS) are coming off their first victory of the season last week, upsetting the Chargers 20-17 as 3-point road dogs. Essentially, Dallas is hot in the eyes of the public, while the Eagles are cold.
This line opened with the Cowboys listed as a 3.5-point home favorite. The public is happy to ride with Dak and the Cowboys at home on a short spread. However, despite this lopsided betting, we've seen the line remain frozen at 3.5. In fact, the Eagles 3.5 is being juiced up to -115 to -120, signaling liability on Philadelphia and a possible fall to the key number of 3. Wiseguys seem to be backing the Eagles plus the hook based on the line freeze and juice reverse line movement.
Philadelphia has value as a contrarian road dog in a heavily bet primetime game. Primetime dogs are 5-3 ATS this season and 33-22 ATS (60 percent) over the past two seasons.
The Eagles also match the best betting system through three weeks: short road dogs 6 or less. They are 14-2 ATS this season and 114-71 ATS (62 percent) the past two seasons. Philadelphia has value as a divisional dog, as the built in familiarity with a common opponent levels the playing field and benefits the team getting points. Divisional dogs are 61-46 (57 percent) over the past two seasons. It's also been profitable to fade teams making their home opener in Week 3, like the Cowboys tonight. Over the past decade, fading them is 31-15 ATS (67 percent). Brad Rogers, the head referee, is 32-26 ATS (56 percent) to the road team historically.
The total opened at 51.5 and really hasn't budged at all. Primetime overs are 7-1 this season. Philadelphia is 2-0 to the under this season. Dallas is 1-1.
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Post by Makers on Sept 28, 2021 5:51:21 GMT -5
6:35 p.m. ET: Chicago Cubs (67-89) at Pittsburgh Pirates (58-98)
Both of these NL Central rivals have long been eliminated from the playoffs. Both are also struggling down the stretch. The Cubs just got swept by the Cardinals to fall to 1-10 over their last 11 games. Meanwhile, the Pirates are 2-6 over their last 8 and own the 4th-worst record in MLB. In tonight's series opener, Chicago hands the ball to righty Alec Mills (6-7, 4.83 ERA) and Pittsburgh counters with fellow righty Mitch Keller (5-11, 5.96 ERA). This line opened with the Pirates listed as a short -115 home favorite and the Cubs a + 105 road dog. We've seen respected money hit the Cubs, dropping the line to a virtual pick'em at -105 both sides. The Cubs enjoy a schedule edge in this one. Chicago is coming off a day off while the Pirates played yesterday, losing 13-1 to the Reds. Rested teams in this spot are 72-45 (62 percent) this season. Chicago is also 12-4 against Pittsburgh this season. We could also be looking at a lower scoring game here. The total is 9 with the under juiced to -120, signaling a possible fall to 8.5.
7:45 p.m. ET: Milwaukee Brewers (94-62) at St. Louis Cardinals (87-69)
This NL Central matchup features one team who has already clinched a playoff spot and another looking to punch their ticket officially. The Brewers have already won the Central and the Cardinals are looking good for the second Wild Card spot, leading the Reds by 5.5-games. In tonight's series opener, the Brewers start righty Brandon Woodruff (9-10, 2.52 ERA) and the Cardinals rebuttal with veteran righty Adam Wainwright (16-7, 3.05 ERA). This line opened at a pick'em with both sides listed at -105. The public is riding the red-hot Cardinals, who have won 16 straight games. But sharps seem to think tonight is the night the streak ends. They've hit the Brewers, steaming Milwaukee up from -105 to -120. The Brewers just swept the Mets. Short road favorites -150 or less are 181-117 (61 percent) this season. The total opened at a low 7. Some respected money seems to be leaning over as the over is juiced up to -120 at most shops, signaling a possible rise up to 7.5.
8:10 p.m. ET: Tampa Bay Rays (97-59) at Houston Astros (91-65)
These division leaders may wind up playing each other in the postseason. But for now they're trending in opposite directions. Tampa Bay has clinched the East and won four straight. Meanwhile, the Astros lead the AL West but haven't clinched and have lost four straight. In tonight's opener, Tampa Bay taps righty Michael Wacha (3-5, 5.49 ERA) and Houston sends out fellow righty Jose Urquidy (8-3, 3.56 ERA). This line opened with Houston listed as a -140 home favorite and Tampa Bay a + 130 road dog. Sharps have pounced on the Rays as a decent plus money dog payout, steaming Tampa Bay from + 130 down to + 120. The Rays have value as a road dog with a high total (9). High totals benefit dogs as the more expected runs scored, the more variance and upset opportunities. We could see some runs scored in this one. The over 9 is being juiced up to -120, indicating a possible rise up to 9.5. Both of these teams have been good "over" bets this season, with the Rays 82-66 to the over and the Astros 83-66.
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Post by Makers on Sept 29, 2021 7:51:43 GMT -5
3:10 p.m. ET: Washington Nationals (65-93) at Colorado Rockies (72-85)
These non-division opponents have split the first two games of the series, with the Nats stealing the opener 5-4 as + 150 road dogs and then the Rockies bouncing back with a 3-1 win on Tuesday, cashing as -130 home favorites. In this afternoon's rubber match, the Nationals hand the ball to righty Paolo Espino (5-5, 4.01 ERA) and the Rockies counter with fellow righty Peter Lambert (0-0, 4.91 ERA). This line opened at a pick'em with both sides listed at -105 odds. The public is split and doesn't know who to back, yet we've seen the Rockies tick up from -105 to -112. This signals some respected money leaning on Colorado at home. Short home favorites -130 or less are 256-197 (57 percent) this season. Non-division home favorites are 490-310 (61 percent). The Rockies are 47-33 at home this season. The Nats are 30-50 on the road. The home plate ump, Quinn Wolcott, is 125-96 (57 percent) to the home team historically. We've also seen pros lean on this under. The total opened at a super high 12.5 and has been bet down to 12. The under is 2-0 this series and 4-1 in the five head-to-head matchups this season. The forecast calls for low 70s with 10-12 MPH winds blowing in from dead center.
7:10 p.m. ET: Miami Marlins (64-93) at New York Mets (75-82)
The Mets swept yesterday's doubleheader against the Marlins, winning 5-2 as -190 home favorites and 2-1 as -140 home favorites. It marked the 7th straight loss for Miami. In tonight's rematch, the Marlins start righty Elieser Hernandez (1-3, 4.24 ERA) and the Mets rebuttal with fellow righty Taijuan Walker (7-11, 4.57 ERA). This line opened with New York listed as a -155 home favorite and Miami a + 140 road dog. Sharps have gotten down on the Mets to carry yesterday's momentum into today, steaming New York up from -155 to -170. Home favorites receiving steam 10-cents or more are 389-249 (61 percent) this season. The Mets are 46-33 at home this season. The Marlins are 24-55 on the road. New York also has value as a bigger favorite with a low total (7.5). Betting theory states that the fewer amount of expected runs scored, the more likely they are to come from the better team. We could be looking at a low scoring game in this one. The total is 7.5 with the under juiced to -120, signaling a possible fall to 7. The under is 3-1 the last four meetings head-to-head. The forecast calls for 65 degrees with 7-10 MPH winds blowing in from left center.
8:10 p.m. ET: Cincinnati Reds (82-76) at Chicago White Sox (90-68)
The White Sox took last night's Interleague Series opener 7-1, cashing as -175 home favorites. In tonight's rematch, the Reds give the ball to righty Sonny Gray (7-8, 3.99 ERA) and the White Sox counter with lefty Carlos Rodon (12-5, 2.47 ERA). This line opened with Chicago listed as a -155 home favorite and Cincinnati a + 140 road dog. Pros are expecting more of the same from last night, steaming the White Sox up from -155 to 165. Home favorites off a win are 510-328 (61 percent) this season. Home favorites receiving 10-cents of steam or more are 393-249 (61 percent). The White Sox also have value as an interleague favorite with a line move in their favor. Chicago is 50-27 at home this season. The Reds are 38-39 on the road. Sharps are also betting on a low scoring game, as we've seen the total fall from 8.5 to 8. The forecast calls for low 70s with wind blowing in from left center at 7-10 MPH. The under is 3-0 between these teams this season. The under is 4-1 in the last five White Sox games. The under is 12-3 in the last 15 games games for Cincinnati on the road.
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Post by Makers on Sept 30, 2021 5:26:53 GMT -5
8:20 p.m. ET: Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals
This Week 4 opener features a pair of non-division foes trending in opposite directions. The Jags (0-3 SU, 0-3 ATS) have lost and failed to cover every game this season, most recently falling to Arizona 31-19 last week, failing to cover as 8-point home dogs. Meanwhile, the Bengals (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS) have been a pleasant surprise through three games and just upset the Steelers 24-10, winning outright as 2.5-point road dogs. The Jags are being outscored on average 30-17 while the Bengals are beating their opponents on average 23-18. Both teams are averaging roughly the same total yards on offense (Jags 326 and Bengals 318). The difference comes on defense, where the Jags are giving up 427 yards while the Bengals are allowing just 343.
This line opened with Cincinnati listed as a 6.5-point home favorite. Pros and Joes are both happy to fade the hapless Jags and have steamed the Bengals up from -6.5 to -7.5. Historically, home favorites have been a smart bet on Thursday Night Football, covering roughly 56-percent of the time over the past decade. Rookie quarterbacks, like Trevor Lawrence, are just 1-0 SU and ATS this season. Brad Allen, the head official, has historically favored home teams (58-48 ATS, 55-percent).
The Bengals are in a prime teaser spot. By teasing Cincinnati down from -7.5 to -1.5 bettors are able to go through multiple key numbers (7 and 3), which is the preferred wiseguy approach to teasers. If you're looking for a partner in a tease, the Saints also fit the bill (-7.5 to -1.5) against the Giants. Also, those who play survivor may be intrigued by using Cincinnati as their Week 4 play. It allows you to save better teams for later and historically home teams have dominated Thursday Night Football on a short week.
The total hasn't budged off the opener of 46. Both teams are 2-1 to the under so far this season. The forecast calls for high 60s with 5 MPH winds. Primetime overs are 8-1.
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Post by Makers on Sept 30, 2021 5:27:31 GMT -5
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Post by Makers on Oct 2, 2021 5:52:07 GMT -5
12 p.m. ET: Michigan at Wisconsin
This Big Ten grudge match is one of the most heavily bet early games of the day. Michigan (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS) enters undefeated and ranked 14th overall, having just taken down Rutgers 20-13 but failing to cover as 20-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Wisconsin (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS) looks to claw back to .500 after losing to Notre Dame 41-13 last week, losing outright as 6-point favorites. This line opened with Wisconsin listed as a 1-point home favorite. Right off the bat, this speaks volumes. If Michigan has a better record and higher ranking, why is Wisconsin the favorite? The public is pounding the Wolverines, yet we've seen Wisconsin move from -1 to -2. This signals sharp "Fade the Trendy Dog" reverse line movement on the contrarian favorite Badgers. Wisconsin has value as a "fishy" unranked favorite vs a ranked opponent. Michigan has been successful running the ball this season (290.8 rush yards per game). Wisconsin's strength is stopping the run (25 yards per game allowed).
12 p.m. ET: Arkansas at Georgia
This SEC heavyweight battle is generating an enormous handle, the largest of any game on the early slate. Arkansas (4-0 SU, 4-0 ATS) is ranked 8th overall and just took down Texas A&M 20-10, winning outright as 4.5-point dogs. Meanwhile, Georgia (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS) is ranked 2nd and just demolished Vanderbilt 62-0, easily covering as 36-point road favorites. This line opened with Georgia listed as a 19-point home favorite. Both Pros and Joes think this line is way too high and they've jumped on Arkansas getting big points. This lopsided action has dropped Arkansas from 19 to 16. Arkansas has value as a road conference dog with a line move in their favor. One big variable here: Georgia star quarterback J.T. Daniels is questionable with an oblique injury. If he's ruled out, expect this line to fall even further toward Arkansas.
2:30 p.m. ET: Cincinnati at Notre Dame
This mid-afternoon showdown features a pair of Top 10 teams looking to stay undefeated. Cincinnati (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) is ranked 7th. The Bearcats are coming off a bye, previously beating Indiana 38-24 and easily covering as 4-point road favorites their last time out. On the other hand, Notre Dame (4-0 SU, 2-2 ATS) is ranked 9th and just upset Wisconsin 41-13, winning outright as 6-point dogs. This line opened with Cincinnati listed as a 1.5-point road favorite. The public is jumping on Notre Dame as a short home dog, yet we've seen Cincinnati move from -1.5 to -2. This signals sharp wiseguy movement in favor of the Bearcats. Cincinnati has value as a ranked favorite off a bye (roughly 54% ATS last decade). Also, when two ranked teams face off, the favorite is roughly 58% ATS last decade. We could also be looking at a lower scoring game in this one. The total has fallen from 52 to 50. The forecast calls for 10 MPH winds and possibly some rain.
3:30 p.m. ET: Mississippi at Alabama
This SEC clash features two ranked teams and two Heisman hopefuls in quarterbacks Matt Corral and Bryce Young. Ole Miss (3-0 SU, 2-0-1 ATS) is ranked 12th and coming off a bye. In their last game, Ole Miss crushed Tulane 61-21, easily covering at 14-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Alabama (4-0 SU, 2-2 ATS) is ranked 1st and just destroyed Southern Miss 63-14, covering as 45-point home favorites. This line opened with Alabama listed as a 15.5-point home favorite. Both Pros and Joes think Ole Miss can hang tough and they're grabbing the points with the Rebels, which has dropped Ole Miss from 15.5 to 14.5. Ole Miss has value as a conference road dog and a ranked team off a bye. Ole Miss head coach Lane Kiffin has had an extra week to game-plan against his former team. We've also seen massive steam to the over, driving the total up from 75 to 79.5. Last year these teams combined for 111 points, with Alabama winning 63-48.
More Saturday Moves Kentucky 8.5 to 7.5 vs Florida
Boston College 16 to 14.5 at Clemson
Penn State -11.5 to -12.5 vs Indiana
Oklahoma -10.5 to -12 at Kansas State
Michigan State -8.5 to -10.5 vs Western Kentucky
Rutgers 16 to 15 vs Ohio State
Auburn 4 to 3 at LSU
Nevada 6 to 5 at Boise State
Arizona State 4 to 3 at UCLA
Oregon State 2.5 to -1.5 vs Washington
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Post by Makers on Oct 2, 2021 5:55:07 GMT -5
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Post by Makers on Oct 3, 2021 5:13:50 GMT -5
1 p.m. ET: Washington Football Team at Atlanta Falcons
Both of these NFC non-division opponents are 1-2 to start the season. Washington (1-2 SU, 0-3 ATS) just got crushed by the Bills 43-21, failing to cover as 7-point road dogs. On the flip side, the Falcons (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS) just secured their first win of the season, beating the Giants 17-14 and winning outright as 2.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Atlanta listed as a short 1-point home favorite. The public is split down the middle and doesn't know who to back. But we've seen the Football Team flip from 1 to -1.5, signaling sharp "dog to favorite" line movement in their favor. Washington has value as a buy-low 0-3 ATS team who the public is down on. Road favorites off a loss against teams off a win are 78-54 ATS (59 percent) over the past decade. Also, teams coming off a blowout loss of 20-points or more are 5-1 ATS this season and roughly 54 percent ATS the past decade. Clay Martin, the lead ref, is 32-14 ATS (70 percent) to road teams historically.
4:05 p.m. ET: Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams
This NFC West clash features a pair of undefeated teams looking to secure the top spot in the division. The Cardinals (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) are coming off a 31-19 win over the Jags, covering as 8-point road favorites. Meanwhile, the Rams (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) just dominated the Bucs 34-24, winning as 1-point home dogs. This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a 6-point home favorite. The public is happy to ride the high-flying Rams at home laying a short number, especially after their big win over the Bucs. However, we've seen Los Angeles fall from -6 to -4. This signals notable wiseguy action buying low on the undefeated Cardinals plus the points. Short road dogs 6 or less are 14-3 ATS this season and 119-73 ATS (62 percent) over the last two seasons. Arizona also has value as a divisional dog (56 percent ATS over the past two seasons) and a dog with a line move in their favor (59 percent ATS over past two seasons). Shawh Hochuli, the lead ref, is 28-20 ATS (59 percent) to the road team.
4:25 p.m. ET: Pittsburgh Steelers at Green Bay Packers
This non-conference matchup is one of the most lopsided games of Week 4. The Steelers (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS) have dropped two straight after upsetting the Bills in Week 1, falling to the Bengals 24-10 last week and losing outright as 2.5-point home favorites. On the flip side, the Packers (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS) have rebounded from a Week 1 loss to the Saints to win two straight, including an impressive 30-28 win over the 49ers last week, winning outright as 3-point road dogs. This line opened with Green Bay listed as a 7-point home favorite. The public sees an easy win and cover with the red-hot Packers against the ice-cold Steelers.. However, despite this lopsided betting we've seen the Packers fall from -7 to -6. This signals some sharp reverse line movement on road dog Pittsburgh in the ultimate buy-low spot. Dogs with line moves in their favor are 59 percent ATS over the past two seasons. Mike Tomlin has done well in his career as a dog, going 39-19 ATS (76 percent) when getting points with the Steelers. Scott Novak, the lead ref, is 41-28 ATS (60 percent) to the road team.
8:20 p.m. ET: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New England Patriots
This Sunday Night Football showdown will break records for ticket counts as it marks Tom Brady's highly anticipated return to Foxboro and his first game against Bill Belichick since leaving the Pats. The Bucs (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) just suffered their first loss of the season last week, falling to the Rams 34-24 and losing outright as 1-point road favorites. Similarly, the Patriots (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS) are also coming off a disappointing loss in Week 3, losing to the Saints 28-13 as 3-point home favorites. This line opened with the Bucs listed as a 5.5-point road favorite. Pros and Joes are both rushing to the window to lay the points with Tampa Bay, steaming the Bucs up from -5.5 to -7. If you're late to the Bucs party and missed the early move, the Patriots have incredible value as a buy-low inflated primetime dog at 7. Roughly 95% of bets across the market are on Tampa, making them one of the most popular public plays in recent memory. The Patriots are one of the biggest contrarian plays we've seen in years.
More Sunday Moves
Jets 7.5 to 6 vs Titans
Dolphins -1.5 to -2.5 vs Colts
Panthers 4.5 to 4 at Cowboys
Giants 9.5 to 7 at Saints
Seahawks 3 to 2.5 at 49ers
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Post by Makers on Oct 4, 2021 5:29:24 GMT -5
8:15 p.m. ET: Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers
This Monday Night showdown features a pair of AFC West rivals who are fighting for the top spot in the division. The Raiders (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) are undefeated and just took down the Dolphins 31-28, although Vegas failed to cover as a 3.5-point home favorite. Meanwhile, the Chargers (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS) just went into Arrowhead and shocked the mighty Chiefs 30-24, winning outright as 7-point road dogs. The Raiders are 18 in point differential. Los Angeles is 7. This line opened with the Chargers listed a 3-point home favorite. Right off the bat, this line speaks volumes. Typically, teams get about 3-points (maybe a little less) for home field advantage. So with the Chargers -3 at home the books are pretty much saying these teams are dead even and the line would be a pick'em on a neutral field. Some early money leaned Chargers, driving Los Angeles up from -3 to -3.5. But once the hook was available, pros pounced on the Raiders 3.5, causing most books to fall back to 3. Vegas matches several betting systems. Short road dogs 6 or less are 19-5 ATS (79 percent) this season. Primetime dogs are 7-4 ATS this season and 35-23 ATS (60 percent) the past two seasons. The Raiders also have value as a divisional dog (57 percent last two seasons). Divisional matchups benefit dogs as the built in familiarity levels the playing field and benefits the team getting points. Vegas is also a "dog who can score," averaging 30 PPG. Higher scoring dogs are more likely to keep up with the favorite or backdoor cover. Pros have also leaned on the under, dropping the total from 52.5 to 51.5. Primetime overs are 8-3 this season. However, divisional unders that fall at least a half point are roughly 54% to the under the past decade. The lead referee, John Hussey, is 57-percent to the under historically. The Chargers are 3-0 to the under. The Raiders are 2-1 to the over.
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Post by Makers on Oct 5, 2021 6:57:31 GMT -5
Tuesday, Oct. 5 New York Yankees (-117) at Boston Red Sox (+ 107)
Total: 8.5ESPN, 8 pm. ET I opened the Yankees -115, Boston + 105. My first bet was on the Sox. I dropped the line to a dime (Yankees -110/Sox EVEN). One of the South Point’s really big customers came in and bet the Yankees. I moved all the way to Yanks -117 (Sox + 107) off that bet. Looks like that’s where the market is settling. I think the public will slightly favor the Yankees. Boston backers will come out of the woodwork if the line rises too high. My opening total was 8.5 runs, with the Over juiced at -120 (Under at EVEN money). First sharp bet was on the Under. I’m now -110 both ways at 8.5 runs. Good pitching matchup with Gerrit Cole vs. Nathan Eovaldi. Note that all bets are “action” at the South Point. We don’t list starting pitchers any more -- bet the team, get the team. Wednesday, Oct. 6 S t. Louis Cardinals (+ 187) at Los Angeles Dodgers (-215)
Total: 7.5TBS, 8:10 pm. ET I opened the Dodgers -210, St. Louis + 185. A sharp laid the -210, so I went to -215/+ 187. We’re starting to take back underdog bets at + 187, but not enough to move the line yet. Plenty of time to move in either direction between now and Wednesday night’s first pitch. My opening total was 7.5, with the Over juiced to -115 (Under -105). I took a little action on the Under. I’m now -110 both ways at 7.5. Another potential pitchers’ duel with Adam Wainwright vs. Max Scherzer. In the best-of-five divisional round, Tuesday’s Yanks/Sox winner will play Tampa Bay. Wednesday’s Cards/Dodgers winner will play San Francisco Friday. The other two matchups are set. Here are my series prices in those:*Houston -125 vs. Chicago White Sox + 105 (time/network TBA Thursday) *Milwaukee -145 vs. Atlanta + 125 (time/network TBA Friday) Again, those are series prices, not the odds for Game 1. Limited action so far. For now, the public is much more interested in the marquee franchises facing off in the wild-card games. I think Houston -125 and Milwaukee -145 are good prices. Sharp money didn’t jump in right away to tell me otherwise. I’ll do my best to provide MLB updates in my midweek football reports if space permits, or on Twitter. Odds to Win World Series
Many fans like placing futures bets on their favorite team to win the World Series. Makes rooting even more fun. Here are my current odds to win the 2021 Fall Classic … LA Dodgers 3-1 San Francisco 4-1 Houston 6-1 Tampa Bay 7-1 Milwaukee 7-1 Chicago White Sox 8-1 NY Yankees 12-1 Boston 12-1 Atlanta 12-1 St. Louis 15-1 Sharps are less likely to bet futures during the playoffs. Smart money is aware that taking any team in a “rolling parlay” usually provides a bigger return. Take St. Louis for example. Hey, 15-1 is a nice payout! I have a bunch of exposure already to the Cardinals, so I can’t make that price any friendlier. But taking St. Louis + 187 against the Dodgers, then re-investing the full return at a dog price vs. San Francisco, then re-investing that full return in the NLCS vs. either Milwaukee or Atlanta, then re-investing that full return in the World Series vs. the AL representative would likely bring back 20-1 or 30-1. That matters to sharps. They squeeze out every dollar they can. Sometimes this strategy earns a lot of extra dollars.
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Post by Makers on Oct 6, 2021 5:30:04 GMT -5
8:10 p.m. ET: St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgers
This NL Wild Card one-game playoff feels like a David vs Goliath matchup. The Cardinals (90-72) were a late surprise, catching fire down the stretch highlighted by a 17-game win streak. On the flip side, the Dodgers (106-56) finished with the second best record in MLB but ended up trailing the Giants (107-55) by one game in their division. The Cardinals were + 34 in run differential on the year. Los Angeles was + 269. Both teams hit .244, which ties them for 11th best in MLB. The difference comes on the mound. The Dodgers team ERA is 3.01, best in MLB. The Cardinals team ERA is 3.98, which ranks 12th. These teams met up seven times in the regular season, with the Dodgers going 4-3 head-to-head.
Tonight, the Cardinals hand the ball to veteran righty Adam Wainwright (17-7, 3.05 ERA) and the Dodgers counter with ace Max Scherzer (15-4, 2.46 ERA). This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a hefty -205 home favorite and St. Louis a + 185 road dog. The public is relatively split. They love the Dodgers at home but the price is so high. And in a one-game playoff anything can happen, so the red-hot Cardinals are appealing at a big plus-money price.
Despite this relatively even betting, the Dodgers have been steamed up from -205 to -225. Big postseason favorites -200 or more are 27-10 (73%) over the past decade. Los Angeles also has correlative betting value as a big favorite with a low total (7.5). Low totals benefit favorites as the fewer amount of expected runs scored makes it more likely to come from the better team. The Dodgers went 106-53 as a favorite this season and 58-23 at home. The Cardinals went 39-41 as dogs and 45-36 away.
The total opened at a low 7.5 and hasn't budged. Some books are juicing up the under 7.5 to -115, signaling slight under liability. When the total is 7.5 or higher in the playoffs, the under is roughly 54% the past decade. The forecast calls for low 70s with 5 MPH winds blowing out to right center. Both teams were slightly to the under in the regular season, with St. Louis 80-74 to the under and Los Angeles 81-71 to the under.
Updated World Series Odds (via BetMGM)
Dodgers + 400
Astros + 475
Rays, Giants + 600
White Sox + 700
Brewers, Red Sox + 800
Braves + 1200
Cardinals + 2000
Series Prices
Braves + 120 vs Brewers -145
White Sox + 105 vs Astros -125
Red Sox + 125 vs Rays -150
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Post by Makers on Oct 7, 2021 4:45:24 GMT -5
7:30 p.m. ET: Houston at Tulane
This American Athletic showdown features the top team in the conference against the last place team in the conference. Houston (4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS) is riding a four-game winning streak, most recently beating Tulsa 45-10 last week, winning outright as 3.5-point road dogs. On the flip side, Tulane (1-4 SU, 2-3 ATS) has dropped three straight and just got rolled by East Carolina 52-29, losing outright as 3-point road favorites.
This line opened with Houston listed as a 4.5-point road favorite. Pros and Joes are both in agreement and neither are outsmarting themselves. They're getting down hard on the better team, steaming Houston up from -4.5 to -6.5. Both teams are relatively even on offense, with Houston scoring 36.6 PPG and Tulane 35 PPG. The big difference maker comes defensively. Houston is giving up just 15 PPG while Tulane is giving up 40.2 PPG.
The total opened at 63 and some under money has dropped it to 60 or even 59.5 at some shops. Thursday Night Football unders in college are roughly 56-percent over the past decade. The forecast calls for high 70s with low 5 MPH winds. Houston is 3-2 to the over and Tulane is 4-1 to the over.
8:20 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks
These division rivals are coming off polar opposite performances in Week 4. The Rams (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS) suffered their first defeat of the season, getting waxed by the Cardinals 37-20 and losing outright as 4-point home favorites. On the flip side, the Seahawks (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS) just snapped a two-game losing skid with a 28-21 win over the 49ers, cashing as 2.5-point road dogs.
This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a 1-point road favorite. The public is hammering the Rams, expecting a bounce back win and easy cover at such a short number. Early respected money also laid the chalk. This lopsided action has steamed the Rams up from -1 to -2.5. Savvy contrarian bettors are holding out for the Seahawks at the key number of 3. Seattle has value as a contrarian home dog in a heavily bet primetime game. Primetime dogs are 7-5 ATS this season and 35-24 ATS (59 percent) over the past two seasons. Russell Wilson is 24-10 ATS (71 percent) when getting points as a dog. Divisional dogs are 63-49 ATS (56 percent) since 2020. CenturyLink Field, home of the 12th man, is considered to be one of the best home field advantages in football. The Seahawks are in a prime teaser spot at their current number. By taking Seattle up from + 2.5 to + 8.5 you pass through the key numbers of 3 and 7.
The total opened at a high 53.5 and has been bet up to 54.5, signaling some over money. Primetime overs are 8-4 this season, although they've lost their last three. Buying low on a high total under could be worth a look. Unders are 37-27 (58 percent) this season and divisional unders are 10-6 (62 percent). The Rams are 4-0 to the over. The Seahawks are 3-1 to the under. The forecast calls for mid 50s and mild 5 MPH winds.
Prop Bets to Consider
Both of these teams are at the bottom of the league in terms of passing yards allowed. The Rams are 25th, allowing 273.2 yards. The Seahawks are 28th, allowing 292.5 yards. With that in mind, targeting quarterback overs and wide receiver overs make sense. Also, the Seahawks rank 31st and dead last in rushing yards allowed, giving a league high 152 per game.
Stafford over 298.5 passing yards
Wilson over 266.5 passing yards
Metcalf over 73.5 receiving yards
Lockett over 67.5 receiving yards
Kupp over 84.5 receiving yards (leads team with 46 targets)
Woods over 60.5 receiving yards
Jefferson over 44.5 receiving yards
Darrell Henderson over 64.5 rushing yards
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Post by Makers on Oct 7, 2021 5:04:09 GMT -5
Chris Andrews is the Sportsbook Director at the South Point
Thursday, Oct. 7
No. 15 Coastal Carolina (-20, 73) at Arkansas State
ESPNU, 7:30 p.m. ET
I opened Coastal Carolina -19. Sharps bet me the favorite. I quickly moved to -19.5, and then to -20. I probably should have moved faster. As I write this, I’ve only taken 10 “grocery dollars” on Arkansas State. If you’re not an old-school bettor, that means 10 bucks. “Dollar” used to be slang for $100. If you called your guy and said you wanted a couple of dollars on a team, that meant $200. I’ve only taken 10 grocery dollars on the dog. It will probably take at least 21 for sharps to step in on Arkansas State. A little play both ways on this high Over/Under of 73. No indicators yet as to which way it might move.
Houston (-6, 59.5) at Tulane
ESPN, 7:30 p.m. ET
Money has been trickling in on Houston at my opening line of Cougars -6. Not enough to move the number. The public is probably going to be on Houston. There are likely some sharp Tulane bettors waiting to see if the line goes as high as seven. Fortunes have changed for both teams since their season openers you may have watched on TV. Tulane gave Oklahoma quite a scare. Houston was trounced by Texas Tech. How could Houston be laying a TD on the road? Cougars are 4-0 straight up, 3-1 ATS since then. They impressed me last week when they routed Tulsa 45-10 as a 3.5-point underdog. Tulane is 0-3 straight up and ATS their last three, missing the spread by 26, 9.5, and 26 points. Markets have to adjust fast in college football. Sharps lie in wait looking for over-adjustments. Little play yet on my opening total of 59.5. I’m seeing 60 elsewhere. I have a feeling we’ll go up before kickoff.
Friday, Oct. 8
Temple at No. 5 Cincinnati (-29, 54)
ESPN, 7 p.m. ET
Very little action so far on the side or total. Cincinnati is in a letdown spot after a huge win at Notre Dame. The public may shy away from this big favorite as a result. Recreational bettors rarely take big ugly dogs. So, this one could stay quiet through kickoff. Best expectation is that some public bettors will lay the points on game day. Sharps may not step in on the dog unless they see 30.
Charlotte (-3.5, 60) at Florida International
CBS Sports Network, 7 p.m. ET
Not much happening yet here either. Though, the fact that my opening line of 3.5 didn’t move toward the key number of three could be telling. If sharps liked this home underdog, they would have jumped at 3.5. They didn’t jump. Remember that what “isn’t” happening at early numbers is often as important as what is. Sportsbooks have been very busy on Fridays this season. Adding playoff baseball into the mix this week will create even more buzz. We’ll see if this game gets caught up in the frenzy, or overlooked.
Stanford at No. 22 Arizona State (-12, 51.5)
ESPN, 10:30 p.m. ET
I opened Arizona State -11. Sharps laid me the -11, and -11.5. I’ve stopped at -12. But, I see other shops as high as -13.5. When they bet me at the South Point, I’ll move too. Not yet enough action to move off -12. A lot of market respect for the Sun Devils right now. Both teams are coming off upsets where they covered by double digits. Stanford ( 8.5) beat Oregon 31-24 in OT. Arizona State ( 3) routed UCLA 42-23. But, let me remind you of something my close friend Gill Alexander has talked about often on A Numbers Game. Sharps pay a lot of attention to yards-per-play. Arizona State averaged 8.9 yards per play at UCLA last week. Monster number. It takes something like that to make sharps lay double digits in a conference game right out of the gate. Be sure you’re gauging ASU properly in your own ratings.
MLB Update
I promised to keep you updated on baseball playoff developments in my football reports. Boston’s 6-2 upset of the New York Yankees in the AL Wildcard game sent the Red Sox to Tampa Bay for the divisional round. I opened Tampa Bay -185, Boston 165 to advance. Stores with higher openers saw Boston money come in. I see it trending that way across the market. Anything can happen in a five-game series. Sharps look for reasons to bet underdogs.
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