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Post by Makers on May 8, 2022 6:19:41 GMT -5
3:30 p.m. ET: Phoenix Suns at Dallas Mavericks
Game 4 of the Western Conference Semifinals. The Suns lead the series 2-1 but Dallas is coming off a 103-94 win in Game 3, covering as 1-point home favorites. In this afternoon's rematch, the Mavericks opened as a short 1.5-point home favorite. Respected money has poured in on Phoenix, flipping the Suns from a 1.5-point dog to a 2-point favorite. Essentially, Phoenix is receiving sharp "dog to favorite" line movement. Favorites are 37-24 ATS (61%) this postseason. Favorites with a line move in their favor are 22-9 ATS (71%). We've also seen some wiseguy action hit the under, dropping the total from 215 to 214.5. Unders are 40-21 (66%) this postseason. Unders that fall at least a half point are 22-10 (69%). Leading 2-1, Phoenix is a -500 favorite to win the series. The Mavs are +375 dogs.
8 p.m. ET: Miami Heat at Philadelphia 76ers
This is Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Semifinals. The Heat lead the series 2-1 but Philadelphia is coming off a 99-79 win in Game 3, easily covering as 1-point home favorites. In tonight's rematch, the 76ers opened as a 1.5-point home favorite. The public is split down the middle and doesn't know who to back. However, despite the even ticket count, we've seen the 76ers creep up from -1.5 to -2 at some shops. This signals some smart money liability on the 76ers, with pros backing the home team on the short number off a big win. Playoff favorites are 46-15 (75%) straight up this postseason. Philadelphia is -130 on the moneyline. The total has ticked down from 208 to 207.5, signaling pro money expecting another lower scoring game. Leading 2-1, the Heat are -375 favorites to win the series. The 76ers are +280 dogs.
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Post by Makers on May 9, 2022 6:54:39 GMT -5
7:30 p.m. ET: Boston Celtics at Milwaukee Bucks
This is Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Semifinals. The Bucks lead the series 2-1 after securing a 103-101 win in Game 3, although Boston was able to cover as a 2.5-point road dog. In tonight's rematch, the Bucks opened as a short 1.5-point home favorite. The public is split down the middle and doesn't know who to take. However, we've seen this line fall from Bucks -1.5 to -1. Some shops are even down to a pick'em. This signals sharp wiseguy money backing the Celtics plus the points, triggering a line move in favor of Boston. Pros have also targeted the over, driving the total up from 209.5 to 212. The under offers some inflated line value as this point. The under is 3-0 this series. Unders are 41-22 (65%) this postseason. Leading 2-1, the Bucks are -165 favorites to win the series. The Celtics are +135 dogs.
10 p.m. ET: Memphis Grizzlies at Golden State Warriors
This is Game 4 of the Western Conference Semifinals. The Warriors lead the series 2-1 after posting a 142-112 blowout win in Game 3, easily covering as 7-point home favorites. Tonight's rematch opened with Golden State listed as a 9-point home favorite. The Grizzlies will be without star Ja Morant (knee injury), and as a result we've seen the Warriors rise from -9 to -10. Favorites with a line move in their favor are 22-10 ATS (69%) this postseason. Sharps have also hit the under, steaming the total down from 227 to 224.5. Unders that fall at least a half point are 23-10 (70%) this postseason. When the total is 223 or more, the under is 15-7 (68%). Leading 2-1, the Warriors are -1000 favorites to win the series. The Grizzlies are +650 dogs.
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Post by Makers on May 13, 2022 5:33:08 GMT -5
7:30 p.m. ET: Boston Celtics at Milwaukee Bucks
This is Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Semifinals. The Bucks lead the series 3-2 and can eliminate Boston with a win tonight. Milwaukee is coming off a 110-107 win in Game 5, winning outright as 4.5-point road dogs. Now the series shifts back to Milwaukee. This line opened with the Bucks listed as a 1.5-point home favorite. The public is rushing to the window to lay the short chalk with the Bucks at home. However, despite this lopsided betting on Milwaukee the line hasn't budged. This signals sharp line freeze action on Boston, with pros grabbing the points with the desperate Celtics on the road. Boston is 2-0 off a loss in the postseason. The Celtics are 20-13 ATS (61%) off a loss on the season and have not lost back-to-back games since January. Pros have also hit the under, dropping the total from 212 to 211. Unders are 46-25 (65%) this postseason. Unders that fall at least a half point are 27-11 (71%). Leading 3-2, the Bucks are -275 favorites to win the series. The Celtics are +220 dogs.
10 p.m. ET: Memphis Grizzlies at Golden State Warriors
This is Game 6 of the Western Conference Semifinals. The Warriors lead the series 3-2 but Memphis is coming off a 134-95 blowout win in Game 5, easily winning outright as 4-point home dogs. Now the series shifts back to Golden State. This line opened with the Warriors listed as an 8.5-point home favorite. Some shops even opened Warriors -9. We've seen this line fall to 8, signaling respected money grabbing the Grizzlies plus the points. Teams receiving line moves in their favor are 33-24 ATS (58%) this postseason. We could also be looking at a lower-scoring game here. The total opened at 219.5 and smart under money has dropped the line to 217.5. This would also match as a late series "tired legs" under. Leading 3-2, the Warriors are -1000 favorites to advance to the Conference Finals. The Grizzlies are +650 dogs.
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Post by Makers on May 15, 2022 5:58:52 GMT -5
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Post by Makers on May 16, 2022 7:50:10 GMT -5
6:40 p.m. ET: Washington Nationals (12-24) at Miami Marlins (15-19)
Both of these NL East rivals are looking to bounce back from series losses. The Nats just dropped two of three against the Astros while the Marlins just lost two of three against the Brewers. In tonight's series opener, Washington hands the ball to righty Aaron Sanchez (2-2, 7.58 ERA) and Miami counters with fellow righty Sandy Alcantara (2-2, 2.74 ERA). This line opened with the Marlins listed as a -155 home favorite and Washington a +135 road dog. Pros have hammered the Fish, steaming Miami up from -155 to -205. Home favorites of -200 or more are 49-21 (70%) this season. Miami also has correlative betting value as a big favorite in a low total game (7.5). The Marlins are +10 in run differential. The Nats are -36. Pros have also hit the under, dropping the total from 8 to 7.5. Unders are 270-227 (54%) this season.
7:10 p.m ET: St. Louis Cardinals (19-15) at New York Mets (23-13)
The Cardinals just took two of three against the Giants, crushing San Francisco 15-6 on Sunday as +125 road dogs. On the flip side, the Mets just dropped two of three against Seattle, losing 8-7 as -140 favorites yesterday. In tonight's series opener, the Cardinals send out righty Miles Mikolas (3-1, 1.49 ERA) and the Mets rebuttal with fellow righty Trevor Williams (0-2, 5.73 ERA). This line opened with New York listed as a short -115 home favorite and St. Louis a +105 road dog. The public is split and doesn't know which way to go. However, we've seen the Mets tick up from -115 to -120, signaling pro money laying the short chalk with New York at home. The Mets are 19-7 against righties this season. New York is also 19-10 as a favorite and 10-7 at home. Sharps have also gotten down on the under, dropping the total from 8.5 to 8.
7:10 p.m. ET: Houston Astros (23-12) at Boston Red Sox (13-21)
The Astros just took two of three against the Nats, winning 8-0 on Sunday as -200 road favorites. Similarly, the Red Sox just took two of three against the Rangers, although Boston dropped Sunday's series finale 7-1 as +100 road dogs. In tonight's series opener, Houston taps veteran righty Jake Odorizzi (3-2, 3.38 ERA) and Boston starts young righty Garrett Whitlock (1-1, 2.19 ERA). Thus line opened with Boston listed as a short -120 home favorite and Houston a +110 road dog. Sharps aren't outsmarting themselves on this one. They're grabbing the plus money with the better team, dropping Houston from +110 to +105. Houston has value as a dog in a high total game (8.5). The Astros are +40 in run differential. The Red Sox are -12. Boston is just 4-9 at home. Houston is 14-8 on the road. We could also be looking at a higher scoring game, as the total is 8.5 with the over juiced to -120. The forecast calls for high 60s with 10 MPH winds blowing out to left center.
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Post by Makers on May 17, 2022 5:55:09 GMT -5
Odds to win the Title at BetMGM...
Warriors +150
Celtics +200
Heat +425
Mavericks +600
8:30 p.m ET: Boston Celtics at Miami Heat
This is Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals. The 2-seed Celtics swept the Nets 4-0 in the first round and then edged the Bucks 4-3 in round two, beating the defending champs 109-81 in Game 7 and easily covering as 5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the 1-seed Heat brushed aside the Hawks in five games in round one and then beat the 76ers in six games in round two.
This line opened with Miami listed as a 2-point home favorite. The public is happy to lay the short chalk with the Heat at home. However, despite this lopsided betting toward Miami we've seen the betting line fall from Heat -2 to -1.5. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Celtics, with wiseguys grabbing the points with the road dog. This line movement speaks volumes because the Heat enjoy a notable rest advantage, having last played on Thursday while the Celtics have a short turnaround after playing on Sunday. However, despite this "Rest vs Tired" edge toward Miami the line has fallen to Boston. It appears sharps are siding with the "momentum" of Boston over the rest for Miami.
Teams receiving line movement in their favor are 33-26 ATS (56%) this postseason. Teams coming off a win in the playoffs and also receiving line movement in their favor are 19-13 ATS (59%). Boston is 18-8 ATS (69%) as a dog this season, including 5-0 ATS in the postseason as a dog.
Pros have also hit this under, dropping the total from 206 to 204. Unders are 49-26 (65%) this postseason. Unders that fall at least a half point are 29-12 (71%).
Despite being the worse seed (2 vs 1) and lacking home court advantage, Boston is a -185 favorite to win the series. Miami is a +150 dog.
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Post by Makers on May 17, 2022 5:58:58 GMT -5
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Post by Makers on May 17, 2022 6:00:29 GMT -5
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Post by Makers on May 18, 2022 5:42:07 GMT -5
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Post by Makers on May 18, 2022 5:46:27 GMT -5
9 p.m. ET: Dallas Mavericks at Golden State Warriors
This is Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals. The 4-seed Mavericks enter as the Cinderella, having taken down the Jazz in six games in the opening round and then upsetting the Suns in seven games in the second round. Meanwhile, the 3-seed Warriors brushed aside the Nuggets in four games in the opening round and then beat the Grizzlies in six games in the second round.
In tonight's series opener, the Warriors opened as 5.5-point home favorites. The public is happy to lay the chalk with Golden State at home. However, despite this lopsided betting in favor of the Warriors we've seen Golden State fall from -5.5 to -5. This signals some sharp reverse line movement on Dallas, who is only receiving roughly one-third of bets but saw the line adjusted in their favor. Dallas is 23-18 ATS (56%) as a dog this season, including 6-4 ATS as a dog in the postseason.
Wiseguys are also expecting a lower scoring game. The total opened at 215 and has been bet down to 214.5, indicating some liability to the under. Unders are 49-27 (65%) this postseason. Unders that fall at least a half point are 29-13 (69%). Dallas is one of the top under teams this season, with the under going 57-36 in Mavs games. The under is 27-18 for Golden State at home.
The Warriors are -225 favorites to win the series. The Mavericks are +185 dogs. Golden State is the favorite to win the NBA Title at +150.
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Post by Makers on May 24, 2022 5:50:53 GMT -5
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Post by Makers on May 24, 2022 5:52:55 GMT -5
9 p.m. ET: Golden State Warriors at Dallas Mavericks
This is Game 4 of the Western Conference Finals. The Warriors lead the series 3-0 and can eliminate the Mavericks with a victory tonight. Golden State is coming off a 109-100 win in Game 3, winning outright as 3-point road dogs.
In tonight's rematch, the Mavericks opened as 1-point home favorites. The public is happy to grab the point with the trendy dog Warriors. However, despite this lopsided betting the line hasn't budged off Mavs -1. This signals some sharp line freeze liability on contrarian home favorite Dallas in a desperation spot.
Favorites are 46-36 ATS (56%) this postseason, including 56-26 (68%) straight up. The Mavericks are -115 on the moneyline. Dallas has also been profitable off a loss, going 26-11 ATS (70%).
The total hasn't budged off the opener of 215.5. The under is 2-1 this series. Unders are 52-30 (63%) this postseason. When the total is 210 or more, the under is 46-21 (69%). Dallas has been a big under team all season, going 59-37 to the under including 35-12 to the under at home. Dallas is the slowest paced team in the NBA and also the 6th-best in terms of defensive efficiency.
Leading 3-0, the Warriors are -10000 favorites to win the series. The Mavericks are +2500 dogs. Golden State is the favorite to win the NBA Title at -145.
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Post by Makers on Jun 1, 2022 4:15:03 GMT -5
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Post by Makers on Jun 5, 2022 6:14:06 GMT -5
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Post by Makers on Jun 12, 2022 5:53:27 GMT -5
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