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Post by Gooba on Dec 27, 2023 11:42:23 GMT -5
Sun Bowl (@ El Paso)
Oregon State vs Notre Dame (-6)
Oregon State (8-4)
— Oregon State’s starting QB, coach have both left town.
— Beavers’ ex-coach is an OSU alum; big blow.
— Pac-12 has dissolved; OSU’s program is in limbo.
— Beavers are 0-3 in games decided by less than 7 points.
— This is only 2nd time this year Beavers are an underdog.
— under Smith, Beavers were 21-16-1 ATS as an underdog.
— OSU is 11-6 ATS in last 17 non-conference games.
— Beavers are 6-0 when they allow less than 22 points.
— 8 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 109 starts back on offensive line
— soph QB Gulbranson started 8 games last year.
— Four of their last five games stayed under the total.
— Beavers are 2-3 SU in last five bowls (were favored in all five).
Notre Dame (9-3)
— Notre Dame’s QB quit the team, won’t play in bowl.
— backup QB is 19-25/272 passing (4 TD’s, one INT)
— Notre Dame won four of its last five games SU.
— Irish scored 14-20-23 points in losses, 41+ in eight of nine wins.
— Notre Dame is 7-3 ATS as a favorite this year.
— 6 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 69 starts back on offensive line- new OL coach was at Wisconsin for 7 years.
— First career start for freshman backup QB.
— This year, Irish are 4-2-1 ATS in games with single digit spread.
— Notre Dame is +11 in turnovers in its wins, minus-5 in losses.
— Last five Notre Dame games went over the total.
— Irish lost three of last four bowls SU (3-2 ATS in last five).
— These teams haven’t met since 2004.
— Underdogs covered three of last four Sun Bowls.
— Pac-12 teams are 6-3 SU in last nine Sun Bowls.
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Post by Gooba on Dec 27, 2023 11:43:00 GMT -5
Liberty Bowl
Iowa State (-10) @ Memphis State
Iowa State (7-5)
— Cyclones won five of last seven games, after a 2-3 start.
— ISU is 7-0 when it scores 27+ points, 0-5 when it doesn’t.
— Cyclones are 7-5, have a +9 turnover ratio.
— 9 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 86 starts back on offensive line
— LY’s starting QB Dekkers withdrew from school (gambling charges)
— freshman QB is completing 63.5% of passes (20 TD’s/8 INTs).
— under Campbell, ISU is 10-9-1 ATS as a road favorite.
— over is 4-1 in their last five road games.
— ISU is 7-12 ATS in last 19 games non-conference games.
— This year, Big X non-conference road favorites are 2-6 ATS.
— Cyclones lost three of last four bowls SU (3-2 ATS in last five).
Memphis (9-3)
— Tigers won five of last six games, scoring 45.3 ppg.
— Tigers are 9-1 when they score 28+ points, 0-2 if they don’t/
— Three Memphis losses this year were by 7-10-4 points.
— Memphis allowed 31+ points in seven of last nine games.
— Last efive games, Memphis allowed 494.8 yards/game.
— 6 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 62 starts back on offensive line- 3 starters are back.
— junior QB has completed 66.4% of passes (28 TDs, 9 INTs)
— Memphis is 9-4 ATS last 13 games as home underdogs.
— Tigers are 10-9-1 ATS in last 20 non-conference games.
— Nine of their last ten games went over the total.
— This year, AAC non-conference home underdogs are 2-6 ATS.
— Tigers have been bowl eligible nine years in row (’21 bowl cancelled)
— Favorites covered Memphis’ last three bowl games.
— These teams haven’t met since 2017.
— Underdogs are 6-1 ATS in last seven Liberty Bowls.
— Big X teams won four of last six Liberty Bowls SU.
— since 2019, AAC teams are 12-7 ATS vs Big X opponents.
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Post by Gooba on Dec 27, 2023 11:44:18 GMT -5
Cotton Bowl (@ Arlington, TX)
Missouri vs Ohio State (-1)
Missouri (10-2)
— Mizzou is 9-2 vs I-A teams, losing to LSU/Georgia.
— Mizzou gave up 49-30 points in the two losses.
— Mizzou is 9-0 when it gives up less than 30 points.
— Tigers scored 30+ points in nine of their last ten games.
— Last three games, Mizzou is +9 in turnovers.
— 7 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 136 starts back on offensive line; very experienced
— junior QB completed 66.7% of passes, with 20 TD’s, 5 INTs.
— Under Drinkwitz, Mizzou is 8-9 ATS in non-SEC games.
— seven of last 10 Mizzou games went over the total.
— This year, SEC teams are 16-21 ATS out of conference.
— Mizzou lost its last four bowls; their last bowl win— 2015.
Ohio State (11-1)
— QB McCord has bolted to Syracuse.
— backup QB Brown is 12-22/197 passing (2 TD’s, one INT)
— Ohio State was unbeaten until they lost 30-24 at Michigan.
— Buckeyes have only 2 wins (Notre Dame/Penn St) by less than 14 points.
— 7 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 66 starts back on offensive line; had 3 starters drafted last spring.
— first career start for freshman backup QB.
— Ohio State is 4-5-1 ATS in last 10 non-conference games.
— Under is 7-2 in Ohio State’s last nine games.
— This year, Big 14 teams are 15-19 ATS out of conference.
— Ohio State split last six bowls, giving up 52-45-42 points in last three.
— These teams haven’t met since 1998.
— Favorites are 7-1 ATS in last eight Cotton Bowls.
— since 2019, Big 14 teams are 11-6 ATS vs SEC opponents.
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Post by Gooba on Dec 29, 2023 18:02:11 GMT -5
December 30
Peach Bowl (@ Atlanta)
Ole Miss vs Penn State (-4.5)
Ole Miss (10-2)
— Ole Miss won seven of its last eight games, scoring 31.3 ppg
— Rebels were held to 10-17 points in their two losses.
— Under Kiffin, Ole Miss is 6-7 ATS as an underdog (1-2 TY).
— TY, Ole Miss is 2-1-1 ATS in games with a single digit spread.
— Rebels are +9 in turnovers this season.
— Ole Miss hasn’t had a game TY with a negative TO ratio.
— 9 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 131 starts back on offensive line; good offensive line
— junior QB has completed 65.2% of passes (20 TD’s, 5 INTs)
— Under Kiffin, Rebels are 9-5 ATS in non-SEC games.
— Under is 5-2 in their last seven games.
— This year, SEC teams are 16-21 ATS out of conference.
— In his career, Kiffin is 2-4 SU in bowls.
— Ole Miss is 2-3 SU/ATS in its last five bowls.
Penn State (10-2)
— Penn State scored 27+ points in all its wins.
— PSU lost 20-12 at Ohio State, 24-15 to Michigan.
— TY, Penn State is 1-2 ATS in games with single digit spread.
— last three years, Penn State is +35 in turnovers (+18 TY).
— 8 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 66 starts back on offensive line.
— soph QB has completed 61.3% of passes, with 23 TD’s, one INT.
— under Franklin, PSU is 51-34-3 ATS as a favorite.
— TY, Nittany Lions are 8-1 ATS as a favorite.
— PSU is 10-4 ATS in last 14 non-conference games.
— Last three Penn State games stayed under the total.
— In his career, Franklin is 6-5 in bowls.
— This year, Big 14 teams are 15-19 ATS out of conference.
— Last six years, Penn State is 3-2 SU/ATS in bowls.
— These teams haven’t met in this century.
— Underdogs are 5-3 ATS in last eight Peach Bowls.
— SEC teams are 5-1 in last six Peach Bowl appearances.
— since 2019, Big 14 teams are 11-6 ATS vs SEC opponents.
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Post by Gooba on Dec 29, 2023 18:03:15 GMT -5
Music City Bowl (@ Nashville)
Maryland vs Auburn (-7)
Maryland (7-5)
— Maryland QB Tagevailoa chose not to play in this game.
— Soph backup QB Edwards has thrown 10 passes this season.
— Terps lost five of last seven games, after a 5-0 start.
— Maryland is 6-0 when they score 31+ points, 1-5 when they don’t.
— 5 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 31 D-I starts back on offensive line; they added a I-AA OL star.
— This year, Terps are 3-1 ATS in games with single digit spread.
— under Locksley, Maryland is 11-18 ATS as an underdog (1-2 TY).
— in his career, Locksley is 22-34 ATS as an underdog.
— Over is 4-1 in last five Maryland games.
— This year, Big 14 non-conference underdogs are 2-5 ATS.
— This year, Big 14 teams are 15-19 ATS out of conference.
— In his career, Locksley is 2-0 in bowl games.
— Maryland won its last two bowls, 54-10/16-12.
Auburn (6-6)
— Auburn lost six of last nine games, after a 3-0 start.
— Auburn lost 31-10 at home to New Mexico State LW, a bad loss.
— Auburn allowed 15 or less points in wins, 27+ in losses.
— Last four years, Auburn is 23-25 SU.
— 8 starters back on offense, 9 on defense
— 92 starts back on offensive line
— junior QB started 25 games at Michigan State.
— In his career, Freeze is 46-39-1 ATS as a favorite (3-2 TY).
— Auburn is 17-12 ATS in last 29 games as a favorite.
— Tigers are 2-3 ATS this year in games with single digit spread.
— under is 4-2 in their last six games.
— This year, SEC teams are 16-21 ATS out of conference.
— Auburn is 1-4 SU in last five bowls (favored in 4 of 5)
— In his career, Freeze is 6-1 SU in bowl games.
— These teams haven’t met in this century.
— Favorites are 5-4 ATS in last nine Music City Bowls.
— SEC teams lost four of last five appearances in this bowl.
— since 2019, Big 14 teams are 11-6 ATS vs SEC opponents.
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Post by Gooba on Dec 29, 2023 18:05:01 GMT -5
Orange Bowl (@ Miami)
Georgia (-19) vs Florida State
Georgia (12-1)
— Georgia had won its last 29 games before losing SEC title game.
— Georgia is 4-7-1 against spread this season.
— Only 3 of their 12 wins were by less than 10 points.
— Dawgs are 3-6-1 ATS as a double digit favorite this year.
— Last 3 games, Auburn is minus-4 in turnovers.
— 6 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 62 starts back on offensive line.
— soph QB for Georgia; he is completing 72.4%, with 22 TD’s, 6 INTs.
— Georgia is 2-6 ATS in last eight non-conference games.
— four of Georgia’s last five games stayed under the total.
— Dawgs won their last six bowl games (4-2 ATS)
— SEC non-conference favorites are 14-17 ATS.
Florida State (13-0)
— FSU QB Travis is out, backup QB quit; not ideal.
— #3 QB Glenn is 10-25/90 passing this season.
— Four other prominent Seminoles opted out of this game.
— Seminoles allowed 12 ppg in their last four I-A games.
— Last four I-A games, FSU is +5 in turnovers.
— Seminoles have three wins by 7 or less points.
— 8 starters back on offense, 9 on defense
— 206 starts back on offensive line; ton of experience.
— Seminoles are 11-10-1 ATS in last 22 games as an underdog.
— in his career, Norvell is 12-13-2 ATS as an underdog.
— under Norvell, FSU is 7-5-1 ATS in non-league games.
— under is 4-1 in their last five games.
— This year, ACC non-conference underdogs are 7-10 ATS
— Seminoles went bowling LY for first time since 2019
— Does FSU have enough quality depth to compete here?
— These teams haven’t met since 2002.
— Underdogs are 7-3 ATS in last ten Orange Bowls.
— SEC teams won last five Orange Bowls (3-2 ATS)
— This year, ACC teams are 6-4 SU/7-3 ATS vs SEC opponents.
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Post by Gooba on Dec 29, 2023 18:06:09 GMT -5
Arizona Bowl (@ Tucson)
Toledo vs Wyoming (-3.5)
Toledo (11-2)
— Toledo lost opener, MAC title game; went 11-0 in between
— Toledo covered four of its last six games.
— last five games, Toledo scored 31.6 ppg.
— four of their eight MAC wins were by 7 or less points.
— 8 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 94 starts back on offensive line— 4 starters are back
— junior QB has 19 starts, was 2nd-team all-MAC last year.
— Toledo is 2-2 ATS this year in games with a single digit spread.
— under Candle, Toledo is 7-12 ATS as an underdog (0-1 TY).
— Rockets are 4-9 ATS in last 13 non-conference games.
— under is 5-2 in their last seven games.
— Toledo is 1-4 SU/0-5 ATS in last five bowls- they beat Liberty 21-19 LY.
— MAC underdogs are 16-14 ATS out of conference.
Wyoming (8-4)
— Coach Bohl (10 years @ Wyoming) is retiring after this game.
— Wyoming won its last two games by a combined 84-15.
— Cowboys gave up 31-34-32-34 points in their losses.
— Wyoming is 7-0 when they give up 26 or fewer points.
— Last nine games, Cowboys have a +10 turnover ratio.
— 5 starters back on offense, 10 on defense
— 52 starts back on offensive line.
— senior QB has 12 career starts.
— Wyoming is 3-1 ATS as a favorite TY.
— Cowboys are 2-1-1 ATS this year in games with a single digit spread.
— Mountain West non-conference favorites are 4-4 ATS this year.
— Wyoming won/covered three of its last four bowl games.
— These teams haven’t met since 2012.
— MW teams split last six Arizona Bowls; MAC teams won last two.
— Since 2016, favorites are 3-2 in this bowl.
— Since 2021, MW teams are 8-5 SU/8-3-2 ATS vs MAC opponents.
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Post by Gooba on Dec 31, 2023 8:40:24 GMT -5
January 1
ReliaQuest Bowl (@ Tampa)
Wisconsin vs LSU (-10)
Wisconsin (7-5)
— Wisconsin is 0-3 when they allow more than 21 points.
— Badgers are 6-1 when they allow 17 or fewer points.
— Wisconsin is 7-5; they were favored in 10 of 12 games.
— since 2017, Badgers are 2-4 ATS as an underdog.
— Wisconsin is 9-6-1 ATS in last 16 non-league games (0-2-1 TY)
— 10 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 97 starts back on offensive line.
— backup QB Locke has completed 50% of passes (5 TDs, 1 iNT)
— Locke is a transfer from Mississippi State.
— Badgers are 2-1 in games decided by 8 or fewer points.
— under is 7-3 in Badgers’ last ten games.
— Wisconsin’s 7-6 record LY was their worst since 2008.
— Wisconsin won/covered its last three bowls.
LSU (9-3)
— QB Daniels quit the team, won’t play in bowl.
— Backup QB Nussmeier is 17-33/197 passing TY
— Daniels was also the Tigers’ leading rusher (1,134 yards)
— LSU won six of last seven games, scoring 42+ points in wins.
— Tigers allowed 45-55-42 points in losses.
— LSU gained 500+ yards in nine of last 11 games.
— 8 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 102 starts back on offensive line.
— this year, under Kelly, LSU is 7-3 ATS as a favorite.
— under Kelly, LSU is 11-7 ATS as a favorite.
— In his career, Kelly is 81-72-5 ATS as a favorite.
— under Kelly, LSU is 6-2 ATS in non-SEC games.
— Over is 11-1 in LSU games this season.
— In his career, Kelly is 8-6 in bowl games.
— LSU is 4-1 SU/ATS in bowls the last five years.
— These teams haven’t met since 2016.
— Underdogs are 6-4 ATS in last 10 ReliaQuest Bowls
— Last 8 years, SEC is 6-2 vs Big 14 in this bowl.
— since 2019, Big 14 teams are 11-6 ATS vs SEC opponents.
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Post by Gooba on Dec 31, 2023 8:41:22 GMT -5
Fiesta Bowl (@ Glendale, AZ)
Liberty vs Oregon (-16.5)
Liberty (13-0)
— Last five years, Liberty is 47-16 SU/38-25 ATS
— Flames are 13-0 SU/9-4 ATS TY.
— 11 of Flames’ 13 wins were by 10+ points.
— Liberty was double digit favorite in 8 of last 10 games.
— Flames are 16-5 ATS in last 21 games as an underdog.
— In his career, HC Chadwell is 16-8-1 ATS as an underdog.
— 5 starters back on offense, 3 on defense
— 98 starts back on offensive line
— soph QB started four games LY.
— Last eight games, Liberty ran the ball for 332.8 yards/game.
— Flames have a +9 turnover ratio.
— Six of their last seven games went over the total.
— New HC Chadwell went 39-22 coaching Coastal Carolina.
— Liberty is 3-1 SU/4-0 ATS in bowls, but this is a step up in competition
— AAC non-conference underdogs are 12-20 ATS
Oregon (11-2)
— Oregon has scored 31+ points in every game this season.
— Nine of their 11 wins were by 14+ points.
— Ducks’ only losses were 36-33/34-31, both vs Washington.
— Oregon threw ball for 367+ yards in four of last five games.
— 8 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 96 starts back on offensive line.
— Senior QB Nix QB has 60 career starts, 34 of them at Auburn.
— Last 5+ years, Ducks are 56-18 SU.
— under Lanning, Ducks are 15-6 ATS as a favorite.
— Oregon is 11-17-2 ATS in last 30 non-league games.
— Under is 8-4 in Oregon’s I-A games.
— Ducks are 3-2 in last five bowl games; all three wins were by one point.
— Pac-12 non-conference favorites are 15-7 ATS
— These teams haven’t met in this century.
— Favorites are 5-3 ATS in last eight Fiesta Bowls.
— since 2014, Pac-12 teams are 0-3 SU/ATS in this bowl.
— since 2017, AAC teams are 9-1 ATS vs Pac-12 opponents.
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Post by Gooba on Dec 31, 2023 8:42:07 GMT -5
Citrus Bowl (@ Orlando)
Iowa vs Tennessee (-6)
Iowa (10-3)
— Iowa has an excellent defense, a terrible offense.
— They fired the OC during the year, the coach’s son.
— Iowa won four of its last five games, giving up 11.9 ppg.
— Hawkeyes scored 0-10-0 points in their three losses.
— Iowa has four wins where they scored 15 or fewer points.
— Hawkeyes gained 291 or less TY in 11 of 13 games.
— 9 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 114 starts back on offensive line
— Iowa QB McNamara tore his ACL, is out for year.
— soph backup QB is completing 49.4% of passes (5 TD, 6 INTs)
— Iowa is 8-5 ATS in last 13 games as an underdog (2-2 TY).
— Iowa is 14-6 ATS in last 20 non-conference games.
— Iowa is 5-3 ATS in games with single digit spread.
— under is 8-0 in their last eight games.
— Iowa won four of its last five bowl games (5-0 ATS)
— Big 14 non-conference underdogs are 4-5 ATS.
Tennessee (8-4)
— QB Milton has quit; freshman QB Iamaleava gets first start here.
— Tennessee lost two of last three games, after a 7-2 start.
— Vols are 7-0 when they score 30+ points, 1-4 if they don’t.
— Vols are 1-4 when they run for less than 200 yards.
— Tennessee scored 16-20-7-10 points in its losses.
— 5 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 93 starts back on offensive line.
— freshman QB is making his first start.
— under Heupel, Tennessee is 17-7 ATS as a favorite.
— under Heupel, Tennessee is 10-2 ATS in non-conference games.
— Vols are 2-4 ATS in games with single digit spread.
— four of their last six games went over the total.
— In his career, Heupel is 2-3 in bowl games.
— Vols are 4-1 SU/ATS in their last five bowls.
— SEC non-conference favorites are 14-17 ATS.
— These teams haven’t met since 2014.
— Favorite covered six of last seven Citrus Bowls.
— since 2019, Big 14 teams are 11-6 ATS vs SEC opponents.
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Post by Gooba on Dec 31, 2023 8:42:54 GMT -5
Rose Bowl
Alabama vs Michigan (-2)
Alabama (12-1)
— Alabama won its last 11 games (8-3 ATS).
— Crimson Tide’s only loss was 34-24 at home to Texas.
— Longhorns threw for 349 yards in that game.
— Alabama gave up 20+ points in its last seven I-A games.
— 5 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 41 starts back on offensive line.
— soph QB has completed 65.5% of passes (23 TDs, 6 INTs)
— since 2016, Alabama is 2-1 ATS as an underdog.
— In his college career, Saban is 51-31-3 ATS as an underdog.
— Crimson Tide is +6 in turnovers in its last five games.
— Alabama is 12-7 ATS in last 19 non-conference games.
— seven of their last nine games went over.
— Crimson Tide won six of its last eight bowls.
— SEC non-conference underdogs are 3-5 ATS
Michigan (13-0)
— Wolverines covered seven of their last nine games.
— their last three wins were by 9-7-6-26 points.
— Michigan is 2-0 ATS as a single digit favorite TY.
— Last four games, Michigan was held to 282.3 ypg.
— 8 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 145 starts back on offensive line.
— junior QB McCarthy completed 74.2% of passes (19 TD passes, 4 INT).
— Michigan is 8-15 ATS in last 23 non-conference games (0-3 TY).
— Michigan is 19-12-2 ATS in last 33 games as a favorite.
— seven of last nine Michigan games went over the total.
— Michigan is 1-4 SU/0-5 ATS in last five bowls, giving up 40.3 ppg in last four
— Michigan is 2-0 in Big 14 title games (42-3/43-22- last two years)
— Big 14 home favorites are 12-14 ATS
— These teams haven’t met since 2019.
— underdogs covered six of last seven Rose Bowls.
— Alabama won Rose Bowl three years ago.
— Michigan is in Rose Bowl for first time in 17 years.
— since 2019, Big 14 teams are 11-6 ATS vs SEC opponents.
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Post by Gooba on Dec 31, 2023 8:44:14 GMT -5
Sugar Bowl (@ New Orleans)
Washington vs Texas (-4)
Washington (13-0)
— Washington was 10-0 SU/4-5-1 ATS in Pac-12 games.
— Last six games, Huskies allowed 29.2 ppg.
— Last four games, Washington is +4 in turnovers.
— Huskies’ last four wins were by 7-2-3-3 points.
— 7 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 36 starts back on offensive line.
— senior QB has 43 starts; 30 here, 13 at Indiana.
— under DeBoer, Huskies are 4-0 ATS as an underdog.
— In his career, DeBoer is 5-1 ATS as an underdog.
— Washington is 6-1 ATS in last seven non-league tilts.
— Last three Washington games stayed under the total.
— Last year was Washington’s first bowl since 2019.
— since 2016, Huskies are 2-3 SU in bowls.
— Pac-12 non-conference underdogs are 4-5 ATS.
Texas (12-1)
— Longhorns won their last seven games (4-3 ATS)
— Texas scored 26+ points in every game this year.
— Longhorns’ only loss: 34-30 (-4) vs Oklahoma.
— Texas is 6-6 ATS as a favorite this season.
— Texas gave up 300+ PY four of last seven games.
— 10 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 101 starts back on offensive line
— starting QB Ewers is back in lineup
— In his career, Sarkisian is 38-29 ATS as a favorite.
— under Sarkisian, Texas is 6-4 ATS in non-league games.
— over is 3-1-1 in their last five games.
— Texas is 4-1 in last five bowls; they were underdog is 3 of the 4 wins.
— Big X non-conference favorites are 10-13 ATS
— Washington (+3) upset Texas 27-20 in Alamo Bowl last year.
— Favorites are 5-3 ATS in last eight Sugar Bowls.
— since 2013, Big X teams are 4-3 SU in Sugar Bowl.
— since 2018, Big X teams are 14-8 ATS vs Pac-12 opponents.
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