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Post by Makers on Sept 1, 2020 5:48:46 GMT -5
Monday was a great day for sharp NBA bettors as underdogs went 2-0 ATS with a pair of upset victories. The Heat (+ 5) beat the Bucks 115-104 to take a 1-0 series lead. Then in the late game the Thunder (+ 5.5) took down the Rockets 104-100 to force a decisive Game 7. Miami cashed + 180 on the moneyline while Oklahoma City cashed + 200. Unders went 2-0.
Both dog covers and victories provided teachable moments that bettors should file away for future reference. The Heat were both a Pro and Joe play as they received slightly more than half the tickets and saw a sharp line move from + 5.5 to + 5. Remember, it's a misconception that sharps and casual bettors are always on opposite sides. Wiseguys won't lay off or stubbornly go the other way just because they happen to find themselves on the side of the public. They could care less where the public is as long as they've identified an edge.
The Thunder were the perfect example of a top contrarian play with a line freeze. The public was all over the Rockets, yet Houston opened -5.5 and closed -5.5. The line even dipped to -5 throughout the day. Essentially, all liability was on OKC even though they were only getting one-third of bets. Plus, they were contrarian in the most heavily bet primetime game of the night, which also offered great value.
Today we have another packed slate with 2 NBA games, 2 NHL games and 14 MLB games.
7 p.m. ET: New York Islanders vs Philadelphia Flyers
This is Game 5 of the second round series. The Islanders lead 3-1 and can eliminate the Flyers with a victory tonight. New York has outscored Philadelphia by a combined margin of 13-7 this series. This line opened with the Isles listed as short -115 favorites and the Flyers a + 105 dog. It's do-or-die for Philly and the Flyers will get the last line change as they're the designated home team. But this hasn't deterred wiseguys. We've seen smart money continue to ride the red-hot Isles, pushing New York up to -120. The Islanders are -1250 favorites to win the series at BetMGM, which translates to an implied probability of 92.6%. The Flyers are + 725.
8:30 p.m. ET: Utah Jazz vs Denver Nuggets
Welcome to Game 7. After dropping the series opener, Utah bounced back with three straight wins to take a commanding 3-1 series lead. But then the Nuggets flipped the switch and won two straight to even it up 3-3. Denver enters Game 7 with all the momentum while the Jazz are staring down the barrel of an epic collapse. This line opened at a pick'em, which means oddsmakers see a true coin-flip game.
Sharps have sided with Denver, pushing the Nuggets up to -1. With such a short spread, bettors might be smarter to take whichever team they prefer on the moneyline rather than the spread. You might get a better price and won't have to worry about a push if you have Denver -1 and they win by 1. Sharps have also sided with the under, dropping the total from 219.5 to 218. The over is 5-1 this series, but historically Game 7 unders do well due to the high stakes, emphasis on defense and importance of every possession.
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Post by Makers on Sept 9, 2020 7:12:51 GMT -5
With Milwaukee eliminated from the playoffs, here are the updated NBA Title odds at BetMGM.
Clippers + 190
Lakers + 260
Heat + 400
Celtics + 500
Rockets + 1400
Raptors + 2500
Nuggets + 6500
In NFL news, a possibly major injury to Broncos' star pass rusher Von Miller has caused a big adjustment to the Denver-Tennessee Week 1 line. After opening at Broncos -2.5 at home, smart money has hit the Titans in recent days, dropping the line to a pick'em. With Miller possibly suffering a season-ending injury, the line flipped to Titans -2.5 last night.
Today a new week begins with 2 NBA games, 1 NHL game and 12 MLB games. Let's discuss a trio of matchups receiving notable sharp action from respected bettors.
6:30 p.m. ET:
Toronto Raptors vs Boston Celtics This is Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Finals. The Celtics lead 3-2 and have a chance to eliminate the defending champion Raptors with a victory tonight. Boston is coming off a dominant 111-89 win in Game 5, covering as 1.5-point favorites. This line opened with Boston listed as a 2.5-point favorite. Sharps immediately got down on Boston -2.5, which has pushed the line to -3. The public is also backing the Celtics to the tune of two-thirds of spread bets. The Raptors will possess buy-low contrarian value in a heavily bet game. One variable to monitor here is Serge Ibaka. He is listed as questionable with an ankle injury. The total is 210. The under is a perfect 5-0 this series. The Celtics are -358 favorites to win the series (78.2%). The Raptors are + 275.
7:10 p.m. ET: Miami Marlins (19-18) at Atlanta Braves (24-18)
The Marlins have taken the first two games of this series, cashing 5-4 as a + 200 dog and 8-0 as a + 105 dog. In the final game of this three-game set, the Marlins start Pablo Lopez (3-3, 3.05 ERA) while the Braves counter with lefty trade deadline acquisition Tommy Milone (1-4, 5.30 ERA). This line opened with the Braves listed as -140 home favorites and the Marlins a + 130 dog. The public says the Braves are the far better team and can't possibly get swept. However, despite two-thirds of bets backing Atlanta, we've seen the Braves fall from -140 to -132. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the streaking Fish (+ 130 to + 121). Miami also has value as a road divisional dog with a high total (9).
8:15 p.m. ET: Cincinnati Reds (18-23) at Chicago Cubs (24-18)
The Cubs took last night's series opener 3-0, cashing as a slight + 100 dog. Tonight we are treated to a pitcher's duel between Cincinnati's Trevor Bauer (3-3, 2.05 ERA) and Chicago's Yu Darvish (7-1, 1.44 ERA). This line opened with the Cubs listed as a -140 home favorite and the Reds a + 130 road underdog. Right off the bat, the fact that the Cubs are listed as such a substantial favorite in a game with two aces going head-to-head speaks volumes about the respect for Chicago and Darvish especially. The public is split and doesn't know who to back but sharps have made up their mind. Pros have rushed to the window to lay the minus price with Chicago, which has pushed the Cubs up from -140 to -150. Also, keep an eye out for the total on this game. The wind is expected to blow straight in at 15 MPH, which would greatly benefit the under.
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Post by Makers on Sept 10, 2020 5:44:30 GMT -5
Wednesday was a great night for NBA sharps, contrarians and sportsbooks as unpopular plays went 2-0 ATS. In the early game, the Raptors (+ 3) upset the Celtics 125-122 in double overtime to stay alive and force a decisive Game 7. Toronto only received one-third of spread bets but displayed line freeze value and late reverse line movement. Toronto opened + 3, rose to + 3.5 with the public hammering Boston, then fell back down to + 3 right before tipoff. The Raptors (Gooba) cashed + 131 on the moneyline. Under bettors suffered an awful bad beat in this one. The game was tied 98-98 at the end of regulation and the Celtics had a chance to win it, but instead it went to overtime, AKA the place where unders die. The total opened at 210, closed at 209.5 and landed on 247 thanks to a pair of overtimes. In the late game, the Clippers (-7.5) game up huge for sharps, beating the Nuggets 96-85. Roughly two-thirds of bets grabbed the points with the trendy dog Nuggets, but liability was always on contrarian favorite Los Angeles, who opened -7.5, reached -8 and won by 11. Today, we have a packed betting slate with NFL Opening Night, a college football game, 1 NBA game, 1 NHL game and 12 MLB games. Let's discuss a trio of matchups receiving notable sharp action from respected bettors. 8 p.m. ET: UAB (1-0) at Miami Florida (0-0)
UAB already enters this game with a win under their belt having just defeated Central Arkansas 45-35 last week. Meanwhile, this is the season opener for the Hurricanes. This line opened with Miami listed as a 14-point home favorite. The public is all over the Hurricanes due to their name recognition, home favorite status and the buzz surrounding Houston transfer quarterback D'Eriq King making his Miami debut. With two-thirds of bets laying the points, Miami ticked up to -15. That's when you saw some sharp UAB buyback hit the market, dropping the line back down to 14.5. Some books are even at 14. Essentially, we are looking at a sharp line freeze on UAB plus the points. UAB also has notable contrarian value since they're only receiving a third of bets in what will be an incredibly heavily bet (and the only) college football game on Thursday night. 8 p.m. ET: Dallas Stars vs Vegas Golden Knights
This is Game 3 of the Western Conference Finals. After being blanked by the Stars 1-0 in the opener, the Knights rebounded with a 3-0 win in Game 3 to even the series at one game apiece. This Game 3 line opened with Vegas listed as a -165 favorite and the Stars a + 150 dog. We've seen some early money hit the Knights, pushing this line up to Vegas -170. Sharps really have their eyes on this under, though. It's listed at 5.5 with the under juiced to -130, signaling heavy under liability. Some books are juicing up the under closer to -140. If this continues, we may see it drop to 5, in which case getting the hook with the under 5.5 could be crucial. The under is 2-0 so far this series. With the series tied 1-1, the Knights are -239 favorites (71%) at BetMGM to win and advance to the Cup Final. The Stars are + 195. 8:20 p.m. ET: Houston Texans (0-0) at Kansas City Chiefs (0-0)
The Chiefs are coming off a 12-4 regular season, AFC West crown and Super Bowl championship. Houston finished 10-6 and won the AFC South. This NFL opening night showdown is a rematch of the AFC Divisional Round playoffs in which Houston raced out to a 24-0 lead only to lose 51-31 to Patrick Mahomes and Co. This line opened with Kansas City listed as a 10.5-point home favorite. The public is all over the defending champion Chiefs. However, despite two-thirds of bets laying the points, we've seen this line fall from Chiefs -10.5 to -9. This signals some sharp reverse line movement on Houston with pros grabbing the Texans. Historically, big dogs + 7 or more perform well against the spread in the early weeks of the season. We've also seen some smart money hit this under, dropping the total from 55.5 to 54. Some books are even down to 53.5.
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Post by Makers on Sept 11, 2020 5:45:35 GMT -5
The NFL's opening night was a boon for public bettors -- and a nightmare for sportsbooks-- as the defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs (-9.5) won and covered 34-20 over the visiting Texans. Houston received sharp reverse line movement, moving from + 10.5 to + 9.5 despite receiving less than half the tickets. Some books even closed at + 9. But it was all for naught as Patrick Mahomes led Kansas City to a 14-point victory. The total was an interesting story depending on when you bet it and what number you got. The public crushed the over to the tune of two-thirds of bets. Sharps were on the under. It opened at 55 and closed at 53.5. This means early Under 55 or Under 54.5 bettors cashed. Anyone who got the late Over 53.5 cashed. Bets on either side of 54 pushed. This speaks to the importance of shopping for the best line and getting a number at its peak value. In the NBA, the Lakers (-5.5) beat and covered against the Rockets 110-100 to take a commanding 3-1 series lead. It was another win for the public as two-thirds of bets laid the points with Los Angeles. Pros, however, did nail the under. The total opened at 220.5, closed at 218.5 and landed on 210. Unders are now 15-4 (78.9%) in the second round of the playoffs. Today, we have another loaded sweat with 2 NBA games, 1 NHL game and 15 MLB games. Let's discuss a trio of matchups receiving notable sharp action from respected bettors. 6:37 p.m. ET: New York Mets (20-24) at Toronto Blue Jays (24-19)
This Interleague matchup features both teams coming off a day of rest. The Mets just dropped two of three from the Orioles while the Jays took two of three from the Yankees. The Mets start ace Jacob deGrom (3-1, 1.69 ERA) while the Jays counter with Chase Anderson (0-0, 4.94 ERA). This line opened with New York listed as a hefty -170 road favorite and the Jays a + 160 home dog. Pro money has rushed to the window to back deGrom and the Mets, which has pushed New York from -170 to -190. Road favorites are cashing at roughly a 61% clip this season. 8:05 p.m. ET: Pittsburgh Pirates (14-27) at Kansas City Royals (17-28)
Public bettors may be overlooking this showdown between last-place teams. But sharps certainly aren't. In a matchup between southpaws, the Pirates will trot out Steven Brault (0-2, 4.37 ERA) and the Royals will feature Kris Bubic (0-5, 4.89 ERA). This line opened with Kansas City listed as a -114 home favorite and the Pirates a + 104 road dog. Sharp action has come pouring in on the Royals, pushing KC up from -114 to -120. The Royals have won three straight games and just crushed the Indians 11-1 as + 200 dogs. 9 p.m. ET: Boston Celtics vs Toronto Raptors
This is Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Semifinals. The winner moves on to play the Heat in the Conference Finals while the loser sees their season come to an end. The Raptors are coming off a gutsy 125-122 double overtime win in Game 6 to force this decisive Game 7. This line opened with Boston listed as a 2-point favorite. The public is all over the Celtics. With two-thirds of bets laying the points, we've seen Boston tick up slightly to -2.5. We've seen some buyback on the Raptors at + 2.5, keeping this line at 2.5 or even dropping it back down to 2 at some shops. Essentially, we are looking at a sharp line freeze and slight reverse line move on Toronto, who also has contrarian value in a heavily bet game. This total opened at a super-low 204. Some books were closer to 205. Despite being so low, smart money has still hit the under, dropping it down to 203.5. The under is 5-1 in this series. Historically, Game 7s result in a lot of unders due to the high stakes, defensive emphasis and tired legs due to a long, grueling series.
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Post by Makers on Sept 11, 2020 7:55:27 GMT -5
Westgate sportsbook director John Murray said the book took the following sharp plays: Army (-20½) over Louisiana-Monroe, Colts (-7½) over Jaguars, Steelers (-5) over Giants and the Chargers-Bengals (Under 44). Talk about potentially the worst betting beat of the season and it happens in the first game. Bet MGM tweeted showing three major wagers. All three went down, down, down. However, the worst came in the NFL opener as the Kansas City Chiefs upended the Houston Texans, 34-20, Thursday in KC. One of the tickets had a $100,000 placed on the Chiefs-Texans game total over/under to remain below 53.5 points. For three-plus quarters whoever placed the bet had to feel good. And then disaster. The Texans turned a 31-7 deficit into 31-20 with a couple of scores. The Chiefs moved down the field and as time wound down rookie running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire could not dent the Texans’ defense to find the end zone. So, on fourth down, Andy Reid sent in Harrison Butker, who nailed the 19-yard field goal with 30 seconds left for the final points. Yep: 34 + 20 = 54. Oh, the pain. There was one plunger who had to be happy, though. Someone bet 100K on the Chiefs to win outright and earned $22,222.20 when they did.
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Post by Makers on Sept 12, 2020 6:16:09 GMT -5
Friday was another thrilling day in the NBA playoff bubble. In the early game, the Nuggets (+ 8.5) pulled off a massive upset for dog bettors, beating the Clippers 111-105 to stave off elimination and force a Game 6. Denver cashed + 330 on the moneyline. The total opened at 217 and sharps hit the under, dropping it to 216. It landed on 216, meaning early sharps cashed and late bettors pushed. The Clippers now lead the series 3-2. Los Angeles is a -2500 favorite (96.2%) to win and advance to the Western Conference Finals. Denver is + 1100 to win the next two games and pull off the epic comeback after being down 3-1. In the late game, the Celtics took down the Raptors 92-87 to win Game 7. Boston covered as a 3-point favorite. The total stayed way under the closing line of 204. The under finished 6-1 in the series. Boston now advances to the Eastern Conference Finals where they will face the Miami Heat. Game 1 is set for Tuesday night. With the defending champion Raptors eliminated, here are the updated NBA title odds at BetMGM.
Lakers + 190 Clippers + 200 Celtics + 400 Heat + 450 Rockets + 6500 Nuggets + 12500 In the NHL, the Islanders cashed a huge play for wiseguys, upsetting the Lightning 5-3 to cut Tampa's series lead to 2-1. The Islanders received massive sharp line movement + 140 to + 115. Here are the updated Stanley Cup Champion odds
Lightning + 120 Golden Knights + 260 Stars + 350 Islanders + 800 Today we have our first full Saturday of College Football with roughly 20 games to choose from. We also have 1 NBA game, 1 NHL game, 16 MLB games and a full UFC slate. Let's discuss a trio of matchups receiving notable sharp action from respected bettors. Noon ET: Arkansas State at Kansas State
Arkansas State already has a game under their belt, losing to Memphis 37-24 but covering as 18-point dogs. Meanwhile, this is Kansas State's season opener. This line opened with K-State listed as a 10.5-point home favorite. Spread bets are relatively split and the public doesn't know whether to take or lay the points. However, we've seen steam load up on the Wildcats, pushing K-State from -10.5 to -13. Pros have also gotten down hard on the under, dropping the total from 57.5 to 54.5. The forecast calls for high 60s and 10 MPH winds. More College Football Line Movement
Syracuse-UNC Over 63.5 to 65.5 Army -16 to -22 vs UL Monroe Georgia Tech-Florida State Under 54.5 to 52 UTEP-Texas Under 60 to 58 6:10 p.m. ET: Philadelphia Phillies (22-20) at Miami Marlins (21-20) These two NL East foes split a doubleheader yesterday, with Philadelphia winning the first game 11-0 and Miami rebounding with a 5-3 win in the second game. Tonight, the Phillies send Spencer Howard (1-2, 5.66 ERA) to the hill to face Marlins Jose Urena (0-0, 5.40 ERA). This line opened at a pick'em with both teams listed at -105. Smart money has come down on the Phillies, pushing Philadelphia from -105 to -115. The Phillies are + 4 in run differential while the Marlins are -28. There is also liability on a higher scoring game with the total of 9 juiced up to over -120. 8 p.m. ET: Vegas Golden Knights vs Dallas Stars
This is Game 4 of the Western Conference Finals. The Stars are coming off a 3-2 overtime win in which they cashed + 150 on the moneyline and took a 2-1 series lead. This game opened with Vegas listed as a -160 favorite and Dallas a + 145 underdog. This line has either stayed the same or inched slightly toward Vegas. Despite laying the big number, the Knights fit a profitable playoff experience system. Historically, teams who made the playoffs the previous year have been a smart bet coming off a loss. This speaks to the "rebound" factor of knowing what it takes to bounce back in pressure situations. We've also seen some smart money liability on the under, with the under 5.5 juiced up to -135. It may even fall to 5. Getting the hook is key if you're playing the under, that way a 3-2 games cashes instead of pushes. The under is 3-0 this series.
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Post by Makers on Sept 13, 2020 6:33:00 GMT -5
Welcome to the first Sunday of the NFL regular season. Historically, Week 1 has been a profitable time to bet underdogs. Early in the season, dogs are healthy and favorites haven't hit their stride yet, which levels the playing field and benefits the team getting points, not laying them. Dogs getting a touchdown or more have also been a smart bet in Week 1. Same goes for buying low on dogs who missed the playoffs the previous season against teams who made the playoffs the previous season. The early season variance specifically benefits divisional dogs. The built in familiarity of knowing your opponent leads to tighter, closer games. Road divisional dogs are even more profitable as the public overvalues home field advantage. This could be especially meaningful this season due to many stadiums having little to no fans in the stands. This decreases home field advantage. Also, dogs with low totals (think less than 45) are valuable because the fewer amount of expected points scored makes it harder for the favorite to cover the number. We also see a positive edge on early season unders. This is due to defenses being ahead of offenses. After all, it takes time for offenses to gel and get on the same page. For this reason, we typically see lower scoring games early in the season. Overall, we have 13 NFL games to bet on today. We also have 1 NBA game, 1 NHL game and 16 MLB games. Let's discuss four nFL matchups receiving notable sharp action from respected bettors. 1 p.m. ET: Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Football Team
This NFC East showdown features two teams coming off polar opposite regular seasons. The Eagles went 9-7 and won the division while Washington finished with the second worst record in the NFL at 3-13. This line opened with Philadelphia listed as a 6-point road favorite. More than two-thirds of bets are laying the points with the Eagles, expecting an easy win and cover. However, despite this lopsided support we've seen this line fall from Eagles -5 to -5.5. Some books are even down to -5. This signals sharp reverse line movement on Washington, with pros scooping up the home dog. Washington also has value as a contrarian divisional dog. Washington's advantage more come from their stout defensive line facing a banged up Eagles offensive line. Philadelphia will also be without starting running back Miles Sanders (hamstring). Sharps have gotten down hard on the under as well, dropping the total from 45 to 42. 1 p.m. ET: Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens
The Browns finished last season a disappointing 6-10. The Ravens were a world beater during the regular season, finishing an NFL-best 14-2. But then Baltimore suffered an early playoff exit, losing to the Titans 28-12 at home in the Divisional Round. This line opened with Baltimore listed as an 8.5-point home favorite. The public is all over the high-flying Ravens. However, despite two-thirds of bets backing Baltimore, we've seen the Ravens fall from -8.5 to -7.5. Some books are even down to -7. This signals wiseguy money coming down on Cleveland plus the points. The Browns have value as a road divisional dog getting more than a touchdown in Week 1, which has historically been a profitable bet. This total has ticked down slightly from 48.5 to 47.5. 8:20 p.m. ET: Dallas Cowboys at Los Angeles Rams
Both of these teams missed the playoffs last season and are looking to rebound in 2020. The Cowboys started 6-4 but went just 2-4 down the stretch to finish 8-8. The Rams had a shot at a Wild Card berth but went 1-2 in their last three games to miss out and finish 9-7. After bringing in Mike McCarthy and drafting wideout CeeDee Lamb, expectations are high this season in Big D. This line opened with Dallas listed as a 2.5-point road favorite. The public is all over the Cowboys. This lopsided support pushed Dallas up to -3. That's when sharps pounced on the Rams at the key number of + 3. Los Angeles has contrarian value in a primetime game, receiving only one-third of tickets on Sunday Night Football. Pros and Joes are both on the over, which has been adjusted from 50 to 51.5 since opening. More Notable Line Moves
Bucs + 4 to + 3.5 at Saints Bucs-Saints Under 49 to 48 Chargers-Bengals Under 44 to 41.5 Packers + 3 to + 2.5 at Vikings Dolphins-Patriots Under 43 to 41.5 Bears-Lions Under 44 to 42.5
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Post by Makers on Sept 15, 2020 6:14:31 GMT -5
Here are some early line moves that already taken place over the last 24-hours or so.
Rams + 3 to -1 at Eagles
Lions-Packers Over 47 to 48
Washington + 7 to + 6.5 at Cardinals
Falcons + 6 to + 5 at Cowboys
Falcons/Cowboys Over 50.5 to 52.5
Bills -4.5 to -5.5 at Dolphins
Bucs -7.5 to -9 vs Panthers
Panthers-Bucs Over 48 to 49
Vikings-Colts Over 47 to 48.5
Chiefs -7 to -8.5 at Chargers
Chiefs-Chargers Under 50 to 47.5
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Post by Makers on Sept 15, 2020 6:16:31 GMT -5
6:30 p.m. ET : Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics
This is Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals. The Heat are coming off a 4-1 series win over the Bucks while the Celtics outlasted the Raptors 4-3 in a grueling seven game series. This line opened with Boston listed as a 1.5-point favorite. The public is relatively split and doesn't know whether to take or lay the points. However, despite an even bet split we've seen oddsmakers juice up the -1.5 on Boston to -115, signaling liability on the Celtics and a possible move up to -2. Boston went 2-1 against Miami during the regular season, winning 112-93, 109-101 and losing 112-106. Pros have also come down on under, dropping the total from 211.5 to 209.5. The under was 6-1 in the Celtics-Raptors series and 3-2 in the Heat-Bucks series. The Celtics are -139 favorites (58.2%) to win the series at BetMGM. The Heat are + 115 dogs. 9 p.m. ET: Denver Nuggets vs Los Angeles Clippers
It's do-or-die Game 7 with a trip to the Western Conference Finals at stake. After racing out to a commanding 3-1 series lead, the Clippers have dropped two straight and are staring down the barrel of an epic collapse. Denver has won the past two games 111-105 and 111-98, both as 8.5-point dogs. This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a 7-point favorite. Early smart money hit the Clippers, pushing the line up to -7.5. The public, though, is grabbing the points with roughly two-thirds of bets backing the surging Nuggets. This line might end up falling back down to 7, so if you like Denver you'd be obliged to grab the hook on the + 7.5 sooner rather than later. Sharp action has also hit the under, dropping it from 208 to 207.5. Historically, Game 7 unders have been a smart bet due to tired legs and a defensive emphasis.
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Post by Makers on Sept 16, 2020 5:42:11 GMT -5
With the Clippers being eliminated, we are now down to the Final Four in the NBA. Here are the updated Title odds at BetMGM.
Lakers -139 Heat + 300 Celtics + 525 Nuggets + 1000 Today, we have a breather from basketball and hockey. But we still have 16 MLB games to get down on. In the meantime, let's discuss a notable MLB matchup receiving smart money today. 7:05 p.m. ET: New York Mets (21-27) at Philadelphia Phillies (24-23)
The Phillies took last night's series opener 4-1, cashing as + 114 home dogs. Tonight, bettors are treated to a five-start pitching duel as the Mets send out ace Jacob deGrom (4-1, 1.67 ERA) to face Phillies ace Aaron Nola (4-0, 2.47 ERA). This line opened with New York listed as a -130 road favorite and Philadelphia a + 120 dog. We've seen smart money rush to the window to back deGrom and the Mets as a low favorite price. This lopsided support has pushed New York from -130 to -140. Some books are inching closer to -150. Road favorites have been a profitable bet this season, cashing at roughly a 61% clip. The Mets are also a favorite with a low total (7.5). Historically, low totals benefit favorites as the fewer amount of expected runs scored are more likely to come from the better team. Here is a look at early college football line movement for this upcoming Saturday UL Lafayette-Georgia State Under 60 to 58.5 Appalachian State -3.5 to -4.5 at Marshall Georgia Southern + 5.5 to + 2 vs Florida Atlantic Texas State -3.5 to -6 at UL Monroe Wake Forest-NC State Under 54.5 to 52.5
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Post by Makers on Sept 17, 2020 5:28:39 GMT -5
7 p.m. ET: Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics
This is Game 2 of the Eastern Conference Finals. The Heat lead the series 1-0 after posting a 117-114 overtime win in Game 1, winning straight up as 2-point underdogs. This line opened with Boston listed as a 2-point favorite. A slight majority of bets expect the Celtics to bounce back and are laying the points. This includes some early smart money on Boston -2, which has since pushed the line up to -2.5. We've also seen some sharp action hit the under. Despite two-thirds of bets backing the over (which cashed in the opening game), the total has fallen from 209.5 to 208.5. This series price opened at Boston -139 and Miami + 115 at BetMGM. With the Heat up 1-0, Miami is now a -150 favorite with Boston + 125. 7:05 p.m. ET: New York Mets (22-27) at Philadelphia Phillies (24-24)
These NL East foes have split the first two games of the series. The Phillies won Tuesday's opener 4-1 as + 115 dogs while the Mets overcame a 4-0 deficit last night to win 5-4 as -174 favorites. In tonight's rubber game, the Mets send out Seth Lugo (2-3, 3.63 ERA) while the Phillies counter with Aaron Nola (5-3, 2.40 ERA). This line opened with Philadelphia listed as a short -135 home favorite and New York a + 125 dog. The public is all over the Phillies at home with their ace on the mound. However, we've seen this line tumble away from the Phillies (-135 to -125) and toward the Mets (+ 125 to + 115). This signals some sharp reverse line movement on New York, who also has value as a road divisional dog. Oddsmakers are also showing liability on a lower-scoring game as the total of 8 is juiced up to under -120. Some books are creeping down to 7.5. 8:20 p.m. ET: Cincinnati Bengals (0-1) at Cleveland Browns (0-1)
This Thursday Night showdown features two divisional opponents coming off disappointing losses. The Bengals battled in Joe Burrow's debut but missed a late game-tying field goal and fell to the Chargers 16-13, failing to cover as 2.5-point underdogs. The Browns, meanwhile, got crushed by the Ravens 38-6 and didn't come close to covering as 7-point dogs. This line opened with Cleveland listed as a 6.5-point home favorite. Spread bets are pretty even and value-minded sharps have gotten down on the Bengals, dropping this line from 6.5 to 6. Some shops have briefly touched 5.5. Essentially, all line movement and liability has been toward Cincinnati. The Bengals have value as a road divisional dog with a low total. Cleveland could also be missing some key players. Three Browns starting offensive linemen are questionable (Wills, Conklin and Tretter) as wide receiver Jarvis Landry is also questionable. One advantage for the Browns, however, is the fact that Thursday Night games typically benefit home favorites on a short week. The under has also taken in sharp action, dropping from 45 to 43.5. The weather could also benefit the under. The forecast calls for 10-12 MPH winds at the Dawg Pound.
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Post by Makers on Sept 18, 2020 7:49:25 GMT -5
What happens in Week 1 of the NFL season stays there, for the most part. In a month or two, the season’s opening Sunday will be all but forgotten, and many of the hot takes — Tom Brady looks his age, for example — will be wrong in retrospect. There were blowouts, stunning comebacks, upsets and all sorts of big bets as the NFL returned from a seven-month absence. The coronavirus-era action did not disappoint, on the field or in the sportsbooks. The South Point sportsbook wagering handle Sunday topped $1 million, despite $30,000 being the largest single wager. BetMGM reported several wagers of more than $100,000, including a $525,000 winning play on New England -7. Three upsets — Arizona over San Francisco, Jacksonville over Indianapolis and Washington over Philadelphia — made the day difficult for the betting public and helped turn a profit for a majority of books. “The final numbers are really good,” Westgate SuperBook director John Murray said. “A lot of people tried to chase at the end of the day on the Cowboys, so that was a good result for us.” It was not the desired result for BetMGM, which took two $100,000 moneyline wagers on the Rams and a $150,000 wager on Under 52. The Rams beat the Cowboys 20-17, and all three of those big bets were winners. Dallas opened as a three-point favorite and the line closed pick-’em. Are the Rams better than projected and the Cowboys typically overhyped? Is the Buccaneers’ ship already sinking? “It’s not your typical Week 1, especially with no preseason,” said Vinny Magliulo, VSiN oddsmaker and Gaughan Gaming sportsbook director. “Oftentimes, the general public, or casual bettors, will overbet Week 1, and then they will overreact to Week 2. On our side of the counter, we can’t overreact. Did we really see the true identity of many or all of these teams? It’s still going to be a wait-and-see approach.” The most popular exercises for many people are knee-jerk reactions and jumping to conclusions. The best example was Week 1 of the 2003 season, when the Patriots were embarrassed 31-0 at Buffalo. Brady was intercepted four times, and critics were crushing coach Bill Belichick. New England beat the Bills 31-0 in Week 17, finished the regular season 14-2 and went on to win the Super Bowl. The day after the season’s opening Sunday — known as Overreaction Monday — is a handicapping challenge in itself. As always, there are plenty of popular opinions to entertain. Brady, who turned 43 in August, is too old to lead an overhyped Tampa Bay team to the playoffs. Judgment: Overreaction. While his performance in the Buccaneers’ 34-23 loss at New Orleans was uninspiring, it should not be that surprising. Brady completed 23 of 36 passes for 239 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions, including a pick-six that brought back memories of Jameis Winston. But miscommunication and timing problems should be expected in a new offense, especially with no preseason. The Saints are NFC title favorites for a reason and did what they were supposed to do as four-point home favorites. Brady had plenty of zip on his throws — he’s not turning into Philip Rivers — and actually looked better than Drew Brees. The Bucs just need some time and will be fine. Cam Newton will be a good replacement for Brady. Judgment: Right reaction. Newton, with a base salary of $1 million, was a low-risk signing for the Patriots. He’s not an MVP candidate, but he has enough left to keep New England in playoff contention. Newton ran 15 times for 75 yards and two touchdowns while hitting 15 of 19 passes for 155 yards. The new offense fits his strengths. Still, the Dolphins, seven-point underdogs in a 21-11 loss, were so disappointing that it’s too soon to get too excited about Newton and the Pats. Let’s wait and see more. Newton will be challenged to stay healthy if he continues to run so much. It’s almost Tua Tagovailoa time in Miami. Judgment: Overreaction. Ryan Fitzpatrick showed no magic in Foxborough, Mass. He was intercepted three times, and the Dolphins didn’t find the end zone until the fourth quarter. (Fitzpatrick left camp in late August when his mom died, so he deserves a break.) It’s no surprise to already hear chatter about promoting Tagovailoa, the No. 5 overall pick, but that’s premature. Tagovailoa is recovering from a major hip injury, and Fitzpatrick still gives Miami a better chance to win now. Fitzpatrick always has been a hot-and-cold player. Don’t forget he beat the Patriots as a 17-point underdog in Week 17 last season. The Jets are suddenly in the hunt for next year’s No. 1 draft pick. Judgment: Right reaction. This is a tough call, and maybe an overreaction. Jacksonville and Washington remain co-favorites to be the league’s worst team and probably would be smart to tank for Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence, but the Jets are throwing their hat in the ring. Until quarterback Sam Darnold shows improvement — and running back Le’Veon Bell’s hamstring injury hurts Darnold’s cause — the Jets will struggle to win. Adam Gase is a candidate to be the first coach fired. Darnold, the No. 3 pick in the 2018 draft, was outplayed by Josh Allen, the No. 7 pick in that draft. Allen passed for 312 yards and two touchdowns while rushing for 57 yards and a touchdown. BetMGM took a $200,000 bet on the Bills -6½ in a game the betting public got right. Buffalo led 21-3 at halftime in a 27-17 win. “Everybody was on Buffalo, and that was our biggest loss,” Murray said. “Josh Allen looked like a rock star in the first half.” Mitchell Trubisky turned the corner in a spectacular comeback: Judgment: Overreaction. For three quarters, Trubisky was bad news and the Bears looked hopeless. The quarterback sarcastically called “MVP Mitch” by VSiN’s Michael Lombardi quieted his critics with three fourth-quarter touchdown passes in a 27-23 victory over the Lions. Trubisky finished 20-for-36 for 242 yards passing to keep Nick Foles on the sideline a while longer. Trubisky’s errant throws from the first three quarters should not be overlooked because of the result, which happened because of a meltdown by the Detroit defense. The Lions are still losers. Judgment: Right reaction. Pity the poor bettor who put $175,000 on the Lions -2½ at BetMGM. It was the right side and wrong result. It’s lazy analysis to blame quarterback Matthew Stafford, who staked Detroit to a 23-6 lead entering the fourth quarter. Lions coach Matt Patricia’s defense laid down for Trubisky, who spent most of the day playing terribly. It was Trubisky, not Patrick Mahomes, and it’s inexcusable. The trend with Patricia is troubling. The Lions blew an 18-point lead and settled for a tie at Arizona in Week 1 last year. Patricia is miscast as a head coach. The same is true with Denver’s Vic Fangio, another former defensive coordinator who fails miserably in game-management situations. “When a team keeps losing close games or blowing big leads,” Murray said, “you have to look at the coach.” Baker Mayfield and the Browns will be bad again. Judgment: Overreaction. Cleveland was a flop last year when it finished 6-10. Mayfield, who threw 21 interceptions in 2019, stopped talking trash and committed to being a more humble, mature leader. The Browns figured to be better simply by dumping clumsy former coach Freddie Kitchens. But it was more of the same in a 38-6 loss at Baltimore in Week 1 as Mayfield completed only 21 of 39 passes with one interception. Mercurial wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. made three catches for 22 yards and hurt the team with negative plays. It’s way too early to quit on a team that sharp bettors were high on coming into the season. At worst, Cleveland could be 8-8 and the third-best team in the AFC North. The talent is there for a turnaround. Aaron Rodgers is rejuvenated and back in elite form. Judgment: Right reaction. Rodgers’ talent is undeniable, yet he needed an attitude adjustment, and maybe Green Bay management provided motivation by trading up in the draft for his presumed replacement, Jordan Love, and adding no wide receiver help. Rodgers does have something to prove and needs to play that way instead of acting entitled. He was good last year (26 touchdown passes, four interceptions) and great in a 43-34 win at Minnesota in Week 1. Rodgers went 32-for-44 for 364 yards and four touchdowns with no picks or sacks. Rodgers’ decline and the Packers’ demise were popular predictions in the offseason, and that might have been a positive thing. I favor Russell Wilson in this year’s MVP race, and Wilson started hot by completing 31 of 35 passes for 322 yards and four TDs in a win at Atlanta, but A-Rod is back in the discussion. The Cardinals can win the NFC West. Judgment: Overreaction. Sharp bettors were not surprised by Arizona’s upset of San Francisco, which had trouble defending mobile quarterback Kyler Murray last year and again in Week 1. The Cardinals are showing that four wideouts and a college-type spread offense can work in the NFL. This division features two great offensive minds as head coaches — Sean McVay of the Rams and Kyle Shanahan of the 49ers — and an emerging one in Kliff Kingsbury, whose hire by Arizona was ripped by every old-school critic. Seattle has the sharpest defensive mind, Pete Carroll, and the top quarterback in Wilson. The Seahawks will win the division, and the Cardinals will likely finish third because their defense is not strong enough and Murray is not on Wilson’s level. Josh Jacobs could lead the NFL in rushing yards or touchdowns. Judgment: Right reaction. In the Raiders’ wild 34-30 win at Carolina, coach Jon Gruden fed the ball to Jacobs early and often. Gruden will stick with that game plan unless the second-year back from Alabama gets banged up with injuries. Jacobs was tied for the second-most carries (25) and sixth-most yards (93) among all NFL running backs in Week 1. He leads with three rushing touchdowns. Gruden’s commitment to ground excellence will balance a potentially explosive offense. Beating the rebuilding Panthers was a needed step in the right direction, but now is when we find out the truth about the Raiders. “Monday Night Football” makes its first-ever stop in Las Vegas next week when the Saints march into town. Do you think Brent Musburger is fired up?
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Post by Makers on Sept 19, 2020 6:26:12 GMT -5
BOOKS NEED A NEW ENGLAND WIN
The Patriots have been installed as underdogs for the first time in 65 regular season games as they prepare for Sunday night’s clash at Seattle. For this rare occurrence for New England, the Seahawks have been steady four-point favorites most of the week and in this 2020 episode, it will be quarterbacks Cam Newton and Russell Wilson squaring off for the Patriots and 'Hawks respectively. “Russell Wilson is one of my favorite players and it’s tough to beat him, especially in a prime-time start,” said Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook VP Jay Kornegay. Kornegay is correct about Wilson in prime-time as the Seahawks have covered 72% of those games under the lights. “We have our biggest risk on the Seahawks who the sharps laid -3.5 early with us,” Kornegay said. William Hill sportsbooks have 79% of the dollars wagered on the Seahawks and 77% of the tickets printed showing that the public has some reservations about the Cam Newton-led Patriots for Bill Belichick despite having last season’s No. 1 defense that forced three Dolphins turnovers in last week’s 21-11 win and cover. Kornegay is skeptical about the 2020 Patriots as well. “I’m still not sold that the Patriots will be ok with Cam as their leader,” Kornegay said. “The Patriots train will derail at some point. Let’s be honest about Newton, he hasn’t been the same since Denver beat him in the Super Bowl, and he didn’t prove anything last week about being able to throw the ball accurately or throw the ball downfield effectively.” Newton was 15-of-19 for 155 yards with no picks or TD passes, but he did score twice running the ball and was the Patriots leading rusher with 75 yards which helped the team lead the NFL with 217 rushing yards per game. The thing I found most interesting about the Seahawks attack in their 38-25 win at Seattle was only 84 yards rushing with Wilson being the leading rusher with 29 yards while tossing four TDs. Belichick has always done well against one-dimensional teams. Something else to consider is the Seahawks have gone just 2-7 against the spread (ATS) in their last nine home games. For those wondering, the last time New England was catching points in a regular season game was 2016. The club was playing without QB Tom Brady, who was serving a suspension for this little blemish in his career that's referred to as "Deflategate." The Patriots covered that game, beating Arizona 23-21 as a 9.5-underdog behind a backup named Jimmy Garoppolo. NEW ENGLAND UNDERDOG HISTORY (REGULAR SEASON L10) 2016 - Patriots 23 at Cardinals 21 2015 - Patriots 40 at Bills 32 2014 - Patriots 21 vs. Packers 26 2014 - Patriods 42 at Colts 20 2014 - Patriots 43 vs. Broncos 21 2014 - Patriots 37 at Bills 22 2014 - Patriots 43 vs. Bengals 17 2013 - Patriots 20 at Dolphins 20 2013 - Patriots 34 vs. Broncos 31 2013 - Patriots 20 at Panthers 24 When you look at head coach Bill Belichick's numbers above as an underdog in the regular season, you could be leaning 'dog on SNF. The future Hall of Famer has led the Patriots to a 7-3 record and he's produced an identical 7-3 against the spread mark for bettors. Plus, the three losses came by 5, 4 and 4 points. Perhaps a New England teaser look? SHARPS FOCUS ON A PAIR OF 0-1 CLUBS
“In addition to betting the Seahawks, the sharps are also liking the Colts who we’ve moved to -3 -120, and also the Falcons at +4.5,” Kornegay said. The Colts and Vikings both come off tough losses, as do the Falcons and Cowboys. Dallas started the week at -5.5 and is now -4. “The public is starting to show support for their regular weekly teams with the top choice being the Chiefs (-8.5 at Chargers), and they’re also taking the Vikings, San Francisco (-7 EV at Jets) for sure, the Ravens (-7 at Texans), and the Bills (-5.5) at Miami,” said Kornegay. The only one of those teams not to cover in Week 1 was the Vikings. PUBLIC BACKING 3 POPULAR FAVORITES
Kansas City Chiefs San Francisco 49ers Green Bay Packers Station Casinos Jason McCormick cited the 49ers and Chiefs as being two of their three riskiest public plays and also added in the Packers into the mix who have jumped from -5.5 to -6.5 against the visiting Lions. The Lions come off a horrible fourth-quarter meltdown and loss to the Bears but have covered their last six meetings with the Packers, so beware of running with the herd this week. William Hill sportsbooks have the Chiefs as being its most lopsided game with 96% of the tickets on them and 98% of the dollars wagered. The Bills have 95% percent of the money wagered on that game and the Ravens have 85% of the money at Houston. JAGUARS RECEIVING ATTENTION
The most surprising betting trend at William Hill is the Jaguars getting 71% of the tickets bet and 85% of the cash for their game at Tennessee. Whenever the public overwhelmingly jumps on an underdog getting +7.5 or more, it should be met with an alert of far exceeding overreach. VEGAS LISTED AS HOME 'DOG IN NFL OPENER The Las Vegas Raiders make their home debut at Allegiant Stadium and are 5.5-point underdogs to the Saints who will be playing without wide receiver Mike Thomas, which is worth a full-point to the number. William Hill books have seen 70% of the tickets written on the Saints and also 61% of the cash. The Saints offense didn’t look so smooth against the Buccaneers last week while the Raiders look like they have a much-improved offensive line. But fans won't be allowed to attend the game because of COVID-19 precautions mandated by state of Nevada. Considering this would've been the NFL opener for the Las Vegas franchise, it's fair to say that this will be the worst grand opening of a Stadium ever. But I’m still excited about the game, team, Stadium, and Raiders season.
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Post by Makers on Sept 20, 2020 5:34:57 GMT -5
1 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Rams (1-0) at Philadelphia Eagles (0-1)
This matchup features the biggest and most dramatic line movement of Week 2. The Rams came up huge for sharps in Week 1, beating Dallas 20-17 on Sunday Night Football. Los Angeles cashed as a contrarian home dog with massive reverse line movement (+ 3 down to a pick'em). Meanwhile, the Eagles are coming off a disappointing 27-17 loss to Washington in which they blew a 17-0 lead, losing straight up at 5.5-point favorites. This line opened with the Eagles listed as 3-point home favorites. The public is all over the Rams off a big win and happy to fade the Eagles off a bad loss. With three out of four bets backing the Rams, the line flipped all the way from Eagles -3 to Rams -1.5. But then sharps bought back on Philly at home, pushed the Eagles from + 1.5 back to -1.5. Essentially, Philadelphia is a rare contrarian favorite with a deflated late and late reverse line movement. The public is backing the Rams, but sharps are fading the trendy dog. Philadelphia will get a boost with the healthy return of running back Miles Sanders and tackle Lane Johnson. 1 p.m. ET: Atlanta Falcons (0-1) at Dallas Cowboys (0-1)
Both of these NFC teams are coming off disappointing losses in Week 1. The Falcons fell to the Seahawks at home as 1-point favorites while the Cowboys lost to the Rams 20-17 on the road as a pick'em on Sunday Night Football. This line opened with Dallas listed as a 6-point home favorite. Sharps quickly sided with the Falcons getting the points and have kept hitting Atlanta all week even though the line has continued to drop. Atlanta has fallen from + 6 all way to + 3.5. We might also be in for a high scoring game. The total opened at 51 and has been bet up to 53.5. One big injury to monitor here: Cowboys start tackle Tyron Smith is questionable with a neck injury. 8:20 p.m. ET: New England Patriots (1-0) at Seattle Seahawks (1-0)
This Sunday Night Football showdown features two Super Bowl contenders coming off impressive Week 1 wins. The Patriots christened in the Cam Newton era with a 21-11 win over the Dolphins, covering as 7-point home favorites. The Seahawks torched the Falcons 38-25, easily winning and covering as 1-point road dogs. This line opened with Seattle listed as a 4-point home favorite. The public is leaning on the Seahawks at home and roughly two-thirds of bets are laying the points. This lopsided support has pushed the line briefly up to Seattle -4.5. That's when we see some sharp buyback on the Patriots + 4.5, which has since dropped the line back down to 4. The hook (+ 4.5) could end up being critical for New England backers. Essentially, we're looking at a sharp line feeze for New England. The Patriots have value as a contrarian dog in what will be the most heavily bet game of the day. More notable NFL Line moves
Lions-Packers Over 47 to 50 Broncos-Steelers Under 43 to 40.5 49ers-Jets Under 43.5 to 41.5 Vikings-Colts Over 46 to 49 Bucs -7.5 to -8.5 vs Panthers Jags + 10 to + 7.5 vs Titans Ravens-Texans Under 52.5 to 49.5 Chiefs -7 to -8.5 at Chargers Chiefs-Chargers Under 50 to 47.5
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Post by Makers on Sept 21, 2020 5:33:30 GMT -5
6:05 p.m. ET: Philadelphia Phillies (27-26) at Washington Nationals (20-32)
We're entering the final week of the MLB and postseason berths are at stake. Philadelphia is getting hot at the right time (won three of their last four) and has a 74% chance to make the playoffs according to ESPN. Meanwhile, the Nationals are way out of it and have nothing to play for at this point. In tonight's series opener, the Phillies start undefeated Zach Wheeler (4-0, 2.62 ERA) and the Nats counter with veteran Anibal Sanchez (2-5, 7.38 ERA). This line opened with the Phillies listed as hefty -145 road favorites and the Nats a + 135 home dog. Pro money has poured in on the Phillies, pushing this line up from Philly -145 to -155. Some books are inching closer to -160. Road favorites have cashed at roughly a 60% clip this season. The Phillies are 19-13 as a favorite and the Nats are 10-18 as a dog. The Phils have had Washington's number this season, going a perfect 6-0 thus far.
8:05 p.m. ET: St. Louis Cardinals (26-24) at Kansas City Royals (21-32)
These Interleague foes are trending in completely opposite directions. The Cardinals are riding a four-game winning streak and now have an 80.6% chance to make the playoffs according to ESPN. On the other hand, the Royals have lost three straight and are eliminated from postseason contention. Tonight, St. Louis starts veteran Adam Wainwright (5-1, 2.87 ERA) while Kansas City counters with Carlos Hernandez (0-0, 3.86 ERA). This line opened with the Cardinals listed as -145 road favorites and the Royals + 135 home dogs. Heavy money has rushed to the window to lay the minus number with St. Louis, pushing the Cards from -145 up to -150. Some shops are closer to -155. The Cards are + 11 in run differential this season and the Royals are -34.
8:15 p.m. ET: New Orleans Saints (1-0) at Las Vegas Raiders (1-0)
This Monday Night Football matchup features a pair of non-conference teams coming off impressive wins. The Saints humbled Brady and the Bucs in Week 1, winning and covering 34-23 as 4-point home favorites. The Raiders outlasted the Panthers on the road, winning and covering 34-30 in a shootout as 3-point favorites. This line opened with the Saints listed as 5.5-point road favorites. The public is all over New Orleans, which pushed this line up from Saints -5.5 to -6. Some books even reached -6.5.
But then Saints star wide receiver Michael Thomas was ruled out with an injury and this line ticked back down to 5.5. The Raiders, who are making their Vegas debut at Allegiant Stadium, have value as a home contrarian dog with an inflated line in what will be the most heavily bet game of the week. The total opened at a high 50.5 and has fallen down to 48.5 due to the Thomas injury and some smart under money.
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