|
Post by Makers on Dec 9, 2020 6:18:07 GMT -5
Week 14
Sunday 1 p.m. ET: Houston Texans at Chicago Bears
This non-conference showdown features a pair of teams on the outside looking in when it comes to a playoff berth. The Texans (4-8 SU, 4-8 ATS) had their brief two-game winning streak snapped last week, falling to the Colts 26-20 and failing to cover as 3-point home dogs. On the flip side, the Bears (5-7 SU, 5-7 ATS) are in a tailspin and have lost six straight. Last week the Bears lost to the Lions 34-30, losing straight up as 3-point home favorites. This line opened with Houston listed as a 2.5-point road favorite. The public sees the Bears as an auto-fade at this point. However, despite a majority of bets backing Deshaun Watson and the Texans, we've seen this line fall from Houston -2.5 to -1.5. Some shops are even inching toward a pick'em. This signals respected money buying low on the Bears as short home dogs. Dogs with a line move in their favor are 52-31 ATS (63%) this season. The total has ticked down slightly from 46 to 45.5. The forecast calls for cold temperatures (low 30s) and 10 MPH winds at Soldier Field.
Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET: Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions
This NFC North grudge match pits two rivals at opposite ends of the division standings. The Packers (9-3 SU, 8-4 ATS) lead the division and have won two straight, crushing the Eagles 30-16 last week and covering as 7.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Lions (5-7 SU, 5-7 ATS) snapped a two-game losing skid with a 34-30 win over the Bears last week, winning outright as 3-point road dogs. It marked the first win under interim Head Coach Darrell Bevell. This line opened with Green Bay listed as an 8.5-point road favorite. This public has no problem laying the wood with Aaron Rodgers. However, we've seen this line tumble down from 8.5 to 7.5. This signals some respected money coming in on the Lions plus the points. Detroit has value as a home divisional dog (14-9 ATS, 61% this season) and a dog with a line move in their favor (52-31 ATS, 63%). Historically, late season home dogs + 7 or more have been a profitable bet. This is also a revenge game for the Lions, who lost to the Packers 42-21 on Opening Day. Keep an eye on star Lions receiver Kenny Golladay, who could make his long awaited return to the lineup here. The total is 55. Super high totals of 55 or more are 12-6 (67%) to the under this season. This also matches a profitable late season divisional under trend.
Sunday 8:20 p.m. ET: Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills
Bettors are in for a treat with this marquee Sunday Night Showdown. If the playoffs started today, Pittsburgh would be the 1-seed and Buffalo the 3-seed. The Steelers (11-1 SU, 8-4 ATS) just suffered their first loss of the season last week, falling to Washing 23-17 and losing straight up as 6-point home favorites. On the flip side, Buffalo (9-3 SU, 7-5 ATS) has won two straight and five of their last six, including a 34-24 win over the 49ers last week as 1.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Pittsburgh listed as a 2.5-point road favorite. Pro money immediately pounced on Buffalo as a short home dog and have flipped this line all the way to Bills -2.5. Essentially, wiseguys have flipped Buffalo from a dog to a favorite. If you like Buffalo but are worried about laying 1.5-points in what could be a close game, the Bills are roughly -125 on the moneyline. Pittsburgh has value as a buy low inflated dog off a loss. Primetime dogs are 25-13 ATS (66%) on the season. Short road dogs + 6 or less are 47-25 ATS (65%). We've also seen this total drop from 47.5 to 47. Primetime unders are 23-15 (61%) this season.
More Week 14 Early Moves
Dolphins + 7.5 to + 7 vs Chiefs
Washington + 3.5 to + 3 at 49ers
Falcons -2 to -2.5 at Chargers
Jets + 14 to + 13.5 at Seahawks
Patriots + 6.5 to + 5.5 at Rams
|
|
|
Post by Makers on Dec 10, 2020 6:54:39 GMT -5
8:20 p.m. ET: New England Patriots at Los Angeles Rams
This Thursday Night Football showdown is a rematch of Super Bowl 53. The Patriots (6-6 SU, 6-6 ATS) are playing for their postseason lives. New England is on the outside looking in but remains in the hunt. They basically need to win out the rest of the way and also get some help. The Pats are 4-1 over their last five games and have won two straight, including a 45-0 beatdown of the Chargers last week, easily covering as 2-point road dogs. Meanwhile, the Rams (8-4 SU, 7-5 ATS) have won three of four and just took down the Cardinals 38-28, covering as 2.5-point road favorites. The Rams are currently the 3-seed in the NFC playoffs but need to keep winning to fend off the Seahawks for the NFC division crown. The Patriots are + 19 in point differential while the Rams are + 58. This line opened with the Rams listed as 6.5-point home favorites. Pros have pounced on the Patriots plus the points, which has dropped the line from 6.5 to 5. New England has value as a short road dog + 6 or less (47-25 ATS, 65%) and a dog with a line move in their favor (52-31 ATS, 63%). Primetime dogs are also 25-13 ATS (66%) on the season. While this is a road game for New England, the Patriots won't have to travel as they stayed in Los Angeles and practiced at UCLA all week following last week's game against the Chargers. New England will have the unique benefit of playing in the same road stadium two weeks in a row. Craig Wrolstad, the lead referee, has historically favored road teams (59% ATS). Sharps have also targeted this under, dropping the total from 45.5 to 44.5. Primetime unders are 23-15 (61%) this season. Both teams are both 8-4 to the under. The under is 5-0 in Rams home games this season. The under has hit in four straight Patriots games.
|
|
|
Post by Makers on Dec 11, 2020 7:59:29 GMT -5
7 p.m. ET: Arizona State (0-2) at Arizona (0-4)
It's been a season to forget for both of these Pac-12 rivals as neither has won a game this season. Arizona State is 1-1 ATS and just fell to UCLA 25-18, losing straight up as 3-point home favorites. Arizona is 1-3 ATS and just lost to Colorado 24-13, failing to cover as 9.5-point home dogs. Arizona State is being outscored 23-27 while Arizona is being outscored 20-32. This line opened with Arizona State listed as a 9.5-point road favorite. Pros and Joes seem to be aligned with the Sun Devils, as we've seen this line rise from -9.5 to -11.5. The total is 56. Both teams have been profitable to the under, with Arizona State 2-0 and Arizona 3-1. 10 p.m. ET: Nevada (6-1) vs San Jose State (5-0)
This late night showdown between Mountain West elites was supposed to be a home game for San Jose State but will instead be played at a neutral site in Las Vegas (UNLV stadium). Nevada is 5-2 ATS and is coming off a 37-26 win over Fresno State, covering as 6.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, San Jose State is 4-0-1 ATS and just beat Hawaii 35-24, covering as 3-point road favorites. Nevada is outscoring their opponents 31-22 while San Jose State is outscoring their opponents 30-17. This line opened with San Jose State listed as a 3-point favorite. The public is backing the undefeated Spartans, yet we've seen this line fall from San Jose State -3 to -2. This signals some sharp reverse line movement on Nevada, with respected money grabbing the points, not laying them. We've also seen some slight over money show up, raising the total from 58 to 59. When these teams met last year Nevada won 41-38. More Friday Line Movement
UTEP-North Texas Over 62.5 to 64.5
|
|
Fish
Premium Member
Posts: 3,502
|
Post by Fish on Dec 11, 2020 10:31:26 GMT -5
(UTEP-North Texas Over 62.5 to 64.5)
Rain will end before game time and there will be a breeze 10-13mph at 70 degrees. Green has no defense and the Miners aren’t any better.
|
|
|
Post by Makers on Dec 12, 2020 7:02:56 GMT -5
3 p.m. ET: Navy (3-6) at Army (7-2)
This legendary matchup has been played every year since 1890. But for the first time in 77 years it will be played at West Point -- making it a true home game for Army. The winner takes home the Commander-In-Chief's Trophy. After starting the season 3-2, Navy has lost four straight, most recently falling to Tulsa 19-6 last week. Meanwhile, Army's only two losses this season came against Cincinnati and Tulane. Last week, Army beat Georgia Southern 28-27 but failed to cover as 3-point favorites. This line opened with Army listed as a 5.5-point home favorite. Tickets are relatively split, but we've seen an overload of respected money lay the points with Army, driving this line up to -7.5. Army enjoys a rest advantage as they are coming off a bye while Navy played last week. Pro money is also expecting a low scoring game, driving the total down from 39 to 37.5. The under has cashed in 14-straight Army-Navy games. 3:30 p.m. ET: Wisconsin (2-2) at Iowa (5-2, ranked 16th)
This Big Ten showdown is one of the most heavily bet games of the late afternoon slate. Wisconsin started the season 2-0 but has since lost two straight, including a disappointing 14-6 loss to Indiana last week as 13.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Iowa started the season 0-2 but has since gone 5-0. Last week Iowa beat Illinois 35-21, covering as 13.5-point road favorites. This line opened with Iowa listed as a 2-point home favorite. The public is relatively split, yet we've seen this line completely flip from Wisconsin + 2 to -2. Essentially, the Badgers have received sharp "dog to favorite" line movement. We've also seen an overload of respected money hit this under, dropping the total from 43.5 to 41.5. Weather could play a big role in this one. The forecast calls for low 30s with snow and 10-15 MPH winds. 3:30 p.m. ET: North Carolina (7-3, ranked 17th) at Miami Florida (8-1, ranked 10th)
All eyes are on this ACC matchup between top ranked teams. North Carolina has won three of their last four and just crushed Western Carolina 49-9. Similarly, Miami has won five straight and just blanked Duke 48-0. North Carolina is outscoring their opponents by an average margin of 41-29 while Miami is averaging wins of 35-22. This line opened with Miami listed as a 3.5-point home favorite. Some books opened closer to Miami -4.5. The public sees Miami as an auto-bet at this point, but we've seen some respected money hit the Tar Heels plus the points, dropping the line down to the key number of 3. Miami has value as a conference road dog and a short road dog + 4 or less (roughly 56% ATS the last decade). We've also seen a steady dose of over money show up, raising the total from 66 to 70. More Saturday moves
Rutgers + 7.5 to + 6.5 at Maryland Western Michigan + 3 to pick'em at Ball State Eastern Michigan -4 to -6 vs Northern Illinois Nebraska -9 to -10.5 vs Minnesota Utah + 2.5 to -1 at Colorado Wyoming + 11.5 to + 9.5 vs Boise State San Diego State-BYU Under 49.5 to 47 UNLV + 21 to + 19 at Hawaii Washington State + 3 to + 1 vs Cal
|
|
|
Post by Makers on Dec 13, 2020 7:00:40 GMT -5
1 p.m. ET: Kansas City Chiefs at Miami Dolphins
If the playoffs started today, Kansas City would be the 2-seed in the AFC and Miami would be the 6-seed. The Chiefs (11-1 SU, 6-6 ATS) have won seven straight and just beat the Broncos 22-16 on Sunday night, although they failed to cover as 13-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Dolphins (8-4 SU, 9-3 ATS) started the season 1-3 but have gone 7-1 since, most recently beating the Bengals 19-7 last week and covering as 10-point home favorites. This line opened with Kansas City listed as a 7.5-point road favorite. The public is all over Patrick Mahomes and company. However, despite this lopsided betting, we've seen Kansas City stay frozen at -7.5 or even fall to -7. This indicates wiseguy money buying low on the Dolphins plus the points, ideally plus the hook (+ 7.5). December home dogs of + 7 or more have covered roughly 56% of the time over the past decade. We've seen the total rise from 48.5 to 50.5. The forecast calls for clear skies and 80+ degrees in Miami, ideal conditions for offense.
4:25 p.m. ET: Washington Football Team at San Francisco 49ers
These NFC non-division opponents are trending in opposite directions. Washington (5-7 SU, 6-5-1 ATS) is getting hot at the right time. The Football Team has won three straight and just shocked the undefeated Steelers 23-17, winning outright as 6-point road dogs. Meanwhile, the 49ers (5-7 SU, 5-7 ATS) are watching their playoff chances slip away and just fell to the Bills 34-24, losing outright as 1.5-point favorites. San Francisco is just 1-4 over their last five games. This line opened with the 49ers listed as 3.5-point "home" favorites (this game will be played in Arizona). Some books had an earlier lookahead of San Francisco -4.5. We've seen a sharp adjustment toward Washington here, with respected pro money grabbing the Football Team plus the points, dropping this line down to the key number of 3. Washington has value as a short road dog + 6 or less (47-26 ATS, 64%) and a dog with a line move in their favor (52-32 ATS, 62%).
8:20 p.m. ET: Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills
Bettors are in for a treat with this marquee Sunday Night Showdown. If the playoffs started today, Pittsburgh would be the 1-seed and Buffalo the 3-seed. The Steelers (11-1 SU, 8-4 ATS) just suffered their first loss of the season last week, falling to Washing 23-17 and losing straight up as 6-point home favorites. On the flip side, Buffalo (9-3 SU, 7-5 ATS) has won two straight and five of their last six, including a 34-24 win over the 49ers last week as 1.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Pittsburgh listed as a 2.5-point road favorite. Pro money immediately pounced on Buffalo as a short home dog and moved the line all the way to Bills -2.5. Essentially, wiseguys have flipped Buffalo from a dog to a favorite. We've seen some respected buyback on Steelers + 2.5, dropping the line back down to 2 where it rests now. Pittsburgh has value as a buy low inflated dog off a loss. Primetime dogs are 25-14 ATS (64%) on the season. Short road dogs + 6 or less are 47-26 ATS (64%). We've also seen some over money, driving this total up from 47 to 49.
More Sunday Line Moves
Titans-Jags Under 53 to 52
Bengals + 3.5 to + 3 vs Cowboys
Cardinals-Giants Over 45 to 47
Colts-Raiders Over 50.5 to 52.5
Chargers + 2.5 to pick'em vs Falcons
Saints -6.5 to -7.5 at Eagles
Saints-Eagles Under 45 to 43
|
|
|
Post by Makers on Dec 15, 2020 6:43:53 GMT -5
Week 15Sunday 1 p.m. ET: New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins
There is a lot on the line with this AFC East showdown. The Patriots (6-7 SU, 6-7 ATS) are still in the hunt for the playoffs but will likely need to win their final three games (and get some help) in order to reach the postseason. New England just got smoked by the Rams 24-3, failing to cover as 5-point road dogs. The Dolphins (8-5 SU, 10-3 ATS) hold the 7th and final playoff seed but need to keep winning with several teams creeping up behind them. Miami just fell to the Chiefs 33-27, although they managed to cover as 7-point home dogs. This line opened with the Dolphins listed as 2.5-point home favorites. The public has given up on New England and rushing to the window to back Miami at home laying a short spread. However, despite this lopsided betting we've seen the line remain frozen at -2.5 and even briefly dip to 2 at some shops, signaling some respected money backing the Pats plus the points. New England has value as divisional dog (55% ATS this year), a short road dog + 6 or less (63% ATS) and a buy-low dog off a 20-point blowout loss or more (59% ATS). The Patriots also have a rest advantage, having last played on Thursday while the Dolphins played Sunday. Pros have also hit this under, dropping the total from 42.5 to 41.5. This matches a late season divisional under trend. Both teams have been profitable to the under, with the Pats 9-5 and Dolphins 8-5. Sunday 1 p.m. ET: Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings
Both of these NFC North rivals are fighting for their playoff lives and desperate for a win. The Bears (6-7 SU, 6-7 ATS) finally snapped their six-game losing skid last week, beating the Texans 36-7 and winning outright as 1-point home dogs. Meanwhile, the Vikings (6-7 SU, 6-7 ATS) just fell to the Bucs 26-14, failing to cover as 6.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Minnesota listed as a 3.5-point home favorite. The public is relatively split and doesn't know whether to take the points or lay them. However, despite this even ticket count we've seen the line drop from Vikings -3.5 to -3. This signals some wiseguy money gravitating to the Bears. Chicago has value as a road divisional dog and a short road dog + 6 or less (63% ATS this season). We've also seen some under money show up, dropping the total from 47 to 46. This would match a late season divisional under trend. The Vikings have been an over team this season (8-4-1) while the Bears have been profitable to the under (8-5). Minnesota beat Chicago 19-13 in Week 10, covering as 3-point road favorites. Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET: Kansas City Chiefs at New Orleans Saints
Bettors are in for a treat with this possible Super Bowl preview. The Chiefs (12-1 SU, 6-7 SU) have won eight straight and just took down the Dolphins 33-27, although they failed to cover as 7-point road favorites. The Chiefs are 5-0 straight up but 0-5 ATS over their last five games. Meanwhile, the Saints (10-3 SU, 7-6 ATS) just saw their nine-game winning streak come to an end last week, falling to the Eagles 24-21 and losing straight up as 7.5-point road favorites. This line opened with the Chiefs listed anywhere between a 3-point and 4-point road favorite. The public has no issue laying this number as Patrick Mahomes and company are an auto-beat for recreational bettors every week. However, respected money has come down on the Saints at + 4, causing several shops to drop back down to 3.5. New Orleans has value as a short home dog off a loss. The Saints also have elevated contrarian value as they are receiving a clear minority of bets in what will be an incredibly heavily bet game. Keep an eye on the status of Saints quarterback Drew Brees. There is an outside shot he could return for this game. If he can't, New Orleans will once again turn to Taysom Hill. More Week 15 Moves
Chargers + 3.5 to + 3 at Raiders Bills -6 to -6.5 at Broncos Bucs -4 to -5.5 at Falcons Bucs-Falcons Under 51.5 to 50.5 Seahawks -4 to -6 at Washington 49ers -1 to -2.5 at Cowboys Cardinals -5.5 to -6.5 vs Eagles
|
|
|
Post by Makers on Dec 17, 2020 6:27:58 GMT -5
8:20 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Chargers at Las Vegas Raiders
This Thursday Night showdown features a pair of AFC West rivals with differing motivations. The Chargers (4-9 SU, 5-7-1 ATS) snapped a two game losing skid last week with a 20-17 win over the Falcons, covering as 1-point home favorites. However, Los Angeles has been officially eliminated from the playoffs. On the flip side, the Raiders (7-6 SU, 7-6 ATS) have struggled as of late, losing three of their last four games. Last week, Las Vegas got crushed by the Colts 44-27, failing to cover as 2.5-point home dogs. After the game, Vegas fired defensive coordinator Paul Guenther and replaced him with Rod Marinelli. Unlike the Chargers, the Raiders are still in the hunt for a final playoff spot and desperately need a victory to stay in contention. The Chargers are -65 in point differential this season and the Raiders are -41. This line opened with the Raiders listed as a 3.5-point home favorite. The public is all over the Raiders, yet we've seen this line fall from -3.5 to -3. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Chargers, with pros grabbing Los Angeles getting the hook (+ 3.5). Los Angeles has value as a divisional dog (38-31 ATS, 55% this season), a short road dog + 6 or less (48-28 ATS, 63%) and a primetime dog (25-16 ATS, 61%). Short road divisional dogs + 3 or less are 10-4 ATS (71%) this season. This is a revenge game for Los Angeles, who lost to Vegas 31-26 at home in Week 9. The Raiders will be down four defensive starters for this game, including Clelin Ferrell, Damon Arnette and Johnathan Abram. When it comes to the total, the public sees two respectable offenses and two awful defenses giving up roughly 30 PPG. As a result, many are expecting a shootout and hammering the over. However, despite this lopsided over betting, we've actually seen the total drop from 54.5 to 53.5. This signals some respected under money hitting the total. The under would match a profitable late season divisional under trend. December divisional unders that are 45 or more are 6-3 this year and roughly 56% over the past decade. Primetime unders are 25-16 (61%) this season. Referee John Hussey has historically favored unders (57%). Both teams have been profitable to the over this season, with the Chargers 7-6 and the Raiders 10-3.
|
|
|
Post by Makers on Dec 18, 2020 9:54:49 GMT -5
7 p.m. ET: UAB at Marshall
This is the Conference USA Championship Game. UAB (5-3 SU, 2-6 ATS) snapped a two-game losing skid last week with a 21-16 win over Rice, although they failed to cover as 7-point road favorites. On the other hand, Marshall (7-1 SU, 5-3 ATS) started the season 7-0 but then got humbled their last time out, falling to Rice 20-0 and losing straight up as 23.5-point home favorites. Both teams have similar offenses, averaging roughly 30 PPG each. The difference comes on defense, where UAB is allowing 22.5 PPG and Marshall is only giving up 11.4 PPG. This line opened with Marshall listed as a 5.5-point home favorite. The public is backing the Thundering Herd, yet we've seen this line drop from 5.5 to 4.5. This sharp reverse line movement signals pro money backing UAB plus the points. UAB has value as a short conference road dog with a line move in their favor, a dog with a low total and a buy low "bad" ATS team (2-6) against a sell high "good" ATS team (5-3). We've also seen some money hit this over, driving up the total from 42 to 43.5. Super low totals of 50 or less are 61-45 (58%) to the over this season.
8 p.m. ET: Oregon at USC
This PAC-12 Title game is the marquee game of the night. It also happens to be nationally televised in primetime, making it the most heavily bet game of the night. Oregon (3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS) started the season 3-0 but has since lost two straight, most recently falling to Cal 21-17 and losing straight up as 9-point road favorites. Meanwhile, USC (5-0 SU, 3-2 ATS) enters this game undefeated and ranked 13th in the country. The Trojans just beat UCLA 43-38, covering as 3.5-point road favorites. Both teams are averaging roughly 35 PPG on offense, but USC has been slightly better on defense (25 PPG allowed vs 28 PPG allowed). This game opened with USC listed as a 3.5-point home favorite. The public is rushing to the window to lay the short spread with the Trojans, yet we've seen this line fall from 3.5 to 3. This fishy line move was caused by respected pro money buying low on the Ducks plus the points. Oregon has value as a short road dog + 4 or less (roughly 56% ATS the past decade) and an unranked road conference dog against a ranked opponent. The Ducks are also your top contrarian play of the night, only receiving roughly one-third of bets in a primetime showdown. We've also seen pros and Joes target the over, pushing the total up from 62 to 64. Oregon is 3-1-1 to the over but USC is 4-1 to the under. More Friday moves
Buffalo -12.5 to -13.5 vs Ball State Ball State-Buffalo Over 66.5 to 67.5 Nebraska -5.5 to -6.5 at Rutgers
|
|
|
Post by Makers on Dec 21, 2020 6:50:01 GMT -5
8:15 p.m. ET: Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals
This Monday Night divisional matchup looks like a layup on paper. The Steelers (11-2 SU, 8-5 ATS) occupy the 2-seed in the AFC playoffs but have stumbled as of late, losing two-straight games. Last week Pittsburgh fell to Buffalo 26-15, failing to cover as 2-point road dogs. A date with lowly Cincinnati might be just what the doctor ordered for the Steelers to get back on track. The Bengals (2-10-1 SU, 7-5-1 ATS) have been long eliminated from playoff contention and are fighting for a top pick in the draft. Cincinnati has lost five-straight and just got crushed by the Cowboys 30-7, failing to cover as 3-point home dogs. The Steelers are + 112 in point differential. The Bengals are -94.
This line opened with Pittsburgh listed as a 12.5-point road favorite. The public is absolutely hammering the Steelers, expecting an easily blowout win and cover. This lopsided support, along with some early sharp action, has pushed Pittsburgh from -12.5 to -14.5. Once the hook became available at + 14.5, we saw some buyback on the Bengals, dropping the line back down to 14 at most shops.
The Bengals look gross but have value as a divisional dog and a super contrarian dog with an inflated line in a heavily bet primetime game. Monday Night Football double digit dogs are roughly 65% ATS over the past decade. Primetime dogs are 26-17 (60%) this season. Home divisional dogs are 17-11 ATS (61%). Teams off a 20-point loss or more are 19-14 ATS (58%).
The total has fallen from 41 to 40. Both teams are profitable to the under with the Steelers 7-5-1 and Bengals 7-6. Primetime unders are 26-17 (60%) this season. Super low totals (42.5 or less) are 11-8 to the over this season (58%). In Week 10, the Steelers beat Joe Burrow and the Bengals 36-10, covering as 6.5-point home favorites. Burrow has been injured for several weeks. Ryan Finley will start in his place tonight.
|
|
|
Post by Makers on Dec 23, 2020 6:42:10 GMT -5
Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks
This NFC West heavyweight bout is one of the most consequential games of the Week 16 slate. The Rams (9-5 SU, 8-6 ATS) were in the driver seat for the division lead but suffered a huge letdown last week, losing to the Jets 23-20 as 17-point home favorites. Los Angeles currently occupies the 5-spot in the NFC playoffs but could catch Seattle with a win in this game. Meanwhile, the Seahawks (10-4 SU, 7-7 ATS) are getting hot at the right time, winning two straight and four of their last five. Seattle just beat Washington 20-15 last week, although they failed to cover as 6-point road favorites. Seattle has already clinched a playoff spot but needs to keep winning for seeding purposes. This line opened with Seattle listed as a 2.5-point home favorite.
The public is all over Russell Wilson and happy to fade the Rams after their putrid loss to the Jets last week. However, despite this lopsided support to Seattle, the Seahawks have fallen from -2.5 to -1.5. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Rams. Los Angeles has value as a dog with a line move in their favor (60% ATS this season), a divisional dog (59% ATS) and a short road dog + 6 or less (64% ATS). The total is 47. Both of these teams have been profitable to the under, with the Rams 10-4 and Seahawks 8-6. These teams met in Week 10 and the Rams won 23-16.
Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET: Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys
This NFC East grudge match has huge implications as both teams are still alive and fighting to catch Washington for the division crown and a postseason berth. The Eagles (4-9-1 SU, 5-9 ATS) are just 1-5 in their last six games and just fell to the Cardinals 33-26, failing to cover as 6-point road dogs. However, Philadelphia has looked much more competitive over the past two weeks after benching Carson Wentz in favor of rookie Jalen Hurts. Meanwhile, the Cowboys (5-9 SU, 4-10 ATS) were once left for dead but have since won two straight, most recently beating the 49ers 41-33 last week and winning outright as 3.5-point home dogs.
This line opened at roughly a pick'em. Some shops even opened Dallas a short 1-point home favorite. However, we've seen a massive wave of Eagles money pour in, flipping this line to Philadelphia -2 or even -2.5. Expect some buyback on Dallas if they reach the key number of + 3. The Cowboys have value as a home dog with an inflated line. Home divisional dogs are 62% ATS this season. The Cowboys will be one of the top contrarian plays of the week as the betting public is hugely lopsided in favor of Philadelphia. The Eagles beat the Cowboys 23-9 back in Week 8.
Sunday 8:20 p.m. ET: Tennessee Titans at Green Bay Packers
Bettors are in for a treat with this Sunday Night Football matchup between non-conference elites. The Titans (10-4 SU, 7-7 ATS) have won two-straight and four of their last five, including a 46-25 beatdown of the Lions last week, easily covering as 8.5-point home favorites. Tennessee currently sits in the 4-seed in the AFC but needs to keep winning to fend off the Colts. Similarly, the Packers (11-3 SU, 8-6 ATS) have won four-straight and just beat the Panthers 24-16, although they failed to cover as 9.5-point home favorites.
Green Bay currently holds the 1-seed in the NFC but needs to keep winning to hold off the Saints and Seahawks for the first round bye. This line opened with the Packers listed as 4-point home favorites.
Sharp money has sided with the Titans, dropping this line down to 3.5 or even 3 at some shops. Tennessee has value as a primetime dog (61% ATS this season), a short road dog + 6 or less (64% ATS) and a dog with a line move in their favor (60% ATS). The total is 56. The Titans are one of the best over teams this season (10-3-1). Green Bay is 7-7. The forecast calls for cold temperatures (low 20s) and possibly 15-20 MPH winds at Lambeau. Primetime unders are 59% this season.
More Week 16 Early Moves
Vikings + 7.5 to + 7 at Saints
Bucs -7.5 to -9.5 at Lions
Cardinals -3.5 to -5 vs 49ers
Falcons + 11.5 to + 10.5 at Chiefs
Broncos-Chargers Under 50 to 48.5
Colts + 2.5 to -1.5 at Steelers
Browns-Jets Over 45 to 47
Bills -6.5 to -7 at Patriots
|
|
|
Post by Makers on Dec 24, 2020 8:23:37 GMT -5
3:30 p.m. ET: Henry vs Houston
This is the New Mexico Bowl and it will be played at Toyota Stadium in Frisco, Texas. Hawaii (4-4 SU, 3-5 ATS) finished 5th in the Mountain West and beat UNLV 38-21 their last time out, although they failed to cover as 19-point home favorites. The Rainbow Warriors averaged 26 PPG on offense while allowing 29.3 PPG on defense. Meanwhile, Houston (3-4 SU, 3-4 ATS) started the season 2-1 but has gone just 1-3 since, finishing 6th in the American Conference. Houston just fell to Memphis 30-27, losing outright as 6.5-point road favorites. Houston had six games cancelled due to COVID throughout the season. The Cougars are averaging 32.4 PPG on offense while giving up 32.6 PPG on defense.
This line opened with Houston listed as an 11-point favorite. Early on some shops reached as high as Cougars -13. But since then we've seen a steady diet of both Pro and Joe money back Hawaii, dropping this line down to 10. Hawaii has value as a bowl dog facing a team who failed to make a Bowl Game the previous year. These dogs have covered at roughly a 57% clip over the past decade. Pros have also taken a liking to this under. The total opened at 61.5 and has been bet down to 59.5 despite the vast majority of the public taking the over. Weather could play a factor here. Toyota Stadium is an outdoor stadium and the forecast calls for 15-20 MPH winds. Hawaii is 6-2 to the under this season. Houston is 4-3 to the over.
|
|
|
Post by Makers on Dec 25, 2020 6:25:01 GMT -5
4:30 p.m. ET: Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints
This late afternoon Christmas Day showdown features a pair of NFC opponents looking to snap two-game losing skids. The Vikings (6-8 SU, 6-8 ATS) just fell to the Bears 33-27 last week, losing outright as 3-point home favorites. Minnesota is technically still alive for a playoff spot but would need to win their final two games and get some serious help in order to sneak in. Meanwhile, the Saints (10-4 SU 7-6-1 ATS) just lost to the Chiefs 32-29, pushing as 3-point home dogs. New Orleans has already clinched a playoff spot and is currently the 2-seed in the NFC. They could rise as high as the 1-seed or fall to the 3-seed depending on how the final two games play out. Minnesota is -28 in point differential this season. New Orleans is + 100.
This line opened with New Orleans listed as a 7.5-point home favorite. The public is all over the Saints, expecting a bounce-back cover against a struggling Vikings squad that just lost to the Bears at home. However, despite this lopsided support we've seen the line fall from Saints -7.5 to -7. This signals some sharp reverse line movement on the Vikings, with respected pro bettors grabbing the points, not laying them. Minnesota has heightened contrarian value as they are only receiving about one-third of bets in what will be an incredibly heavily bet game. The Vikings also have value as a road dog off a loss (56% ATS this season) and a dog with a line move in their favor (60% ATS). Despite both teams being profitable to the over this season (Vikings 9-4-1 and Saints 9-5), we've seen this total fall from 52 to 51. This signals some sharp money backing the under.
Christmas Day NBA Line Moves
Pelicans + 5 to + 3.5 at Heat
Bucks -8.5 to -10 vs Warriors
Nets -1 to -3 at Celtics
Mavs-Lakers Under 229 to 227.5
Clippers pick'em to -2.5 at Nuggets
|
|
|
Post by Makers on Dec 26, 2020 7:45:26 GMT -5
1 p.m. ET: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions
The Bucs (9-5 SU, 7-7 ATS) have gotten back on track and won two straight, including a come-from-behind 31-27 win over the Falcons last week, although Tampa Bay failed to cover as 6-point road favorites. The Bucs are currently the 6-seed in the NFC playoffs but could rise to the 5-spot if they win out and the Rams stumble down the stretch. On the flip side, the Lions (5-9 SU, 6-8 ATS) have lost two straight and four of their last five, including a 46-25 loss to the Titans last week where they failed to cover as 8.5-point road dogs. Detroit has already been eliminated from playoff contention. This line opened with Tampa Bay listed as a 7.5-point road favorite. We've seen both Pros and Joes rush to the window to back Tom Brady and the Bucs, which has pushed this line up from -7.5 to -9.5. Some shops that touched 10 got hit with some Lions + 10 buyback getting the key number. Saturday road teams are 2-0 ATS this season roughly 60% ATS over the past decade. The total is 54. Both teams are profitable to the over this season, with Tampa Bay 8-6 and Detroit 9-5. Detroit interim head coach Darrell Bevell will miss this game due to COVID-19 protocols.
4:30 p.m. ET: San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals
The 49ers (5-9 SU, 5-9 ATS) have had an awful second half of the season, losing three straight and six of their last seven. San Francisco fell to the Cowboys last week 41-33, failing to cover as 4-point road favorites. The 49ers have officially been eliminated from the playoffs. Meanwhile, the Cardinals (8-6 SU, 7-7 ATS) have won two straight and just took down the Eagles 33-26 last week, covering as 6-point home favorites. Arizona currently occupies the 7th and final playoff spot in the NFC but needs to keep winning to fend off the Bears and Vikings. This line opened with the Cardinals listed as 3.5-point home favorites. The public (along with some early respected money) is all over Arizona, driving this line up to -5. The 49ers have value as a road divisional dog and a short road dog + 6 or less (64% ATS this season). Wiseguys are also eyeing the under as we've seen the total fall from 50 to 49. This would match a profitable late season divisional under trend. C.J. Beathard will start for the 49ers, who also welcome George Kittle back from injured reserve.
8:15 p.m. ET: Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas Raiders
The Dolphins (9-5 SU, 11-3 ATS) are 8-2 over their last ten games and just beat the Patriots 22-12, easily winning outright as 1-point home dogs. Miami currently owns the 7th and final AFC playoff spot but Baltimore is breathing down their throats. Meanwhile, the Raiders (7-7 SU, 7-7 ATS) are crumbling at the wrong time, losing two straight and four of their last five. Las Vegas just fell to the Chargers 30-27 on Thursday night, losing outright as 3-point home favorites. The Raiders are technically still alive for a playoff spot but need to win out and get serious help in order to snag the last spot. This line originally opened with the Raiders listed as 2-point home favorites. But we've seen heavily lopsided action come down on the Dolphins, flipping Miami all the way to a 3-point road favorite. We've seen some sharp buyback hit Vegas at the key number of + 3. Vegas has value as a contrarian inflated home dog in a heavily bet primetime game. Derek Carr is expected to start for Vegas after leaving last week's game early with a groin injury.
|
|
|
Post by Makers on Dec 27, 2020 9:44:43 GMT -5
1 p.m. ET: Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers
These AFC powerhouses are gearing up for a playoff push but also trending in opposite directions. The Colts (10-4 SU, 8-6 ATS) have won three-straight and just took down the Texans 27-20, although they failed to cover as 7.5-point home favorites. Indianapolis currently owns the 6-seed in the AFC playoffs but could move up to the 4-seed if they catch the Titans. Indy could also fall out of the playoff structure entirely if they lose out and the Dolphins and Ravens win out. Meanwhile, the Steelers (11-3 SU, 8-6 ATS) were once undefeated but have since fallen on hard times and lost three straight, most recently falling to the Bengals 27-20 on Monday night as hefty 14.5-point road favorites. Pittsburgh is currently the 3-seed in the playoffs but could slip a few spots if they continue to lose games. The early lookahead line on this game was Steelers -3 at home. The public is all over the Colts, especially after Pittsburgh just lost straight up to the lowly Bengals. Early in the week we saw a heavy dose of Colts money show up, flipping this line to Indy -1.5. But over the past 24-hours, late sharp action has hammered Pittsburgh, pushing the Steelers back to -1.5 or even -2 at some shops. Essentially, the Steelers have buy-low value as a "fade the trendy dog" contrarian favorite with a late sharp move in a heavily bet game. We could also be looking at a lower scoring game as the total has been bet down from 45 to 43. The forecast calls for mid 30s with 5-10 MPH winds. 4:25 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Rams at Seattle SeahawksThis NFC West heavyweight bout is one of the most consequential games of the Week 16 slate. The Rams (9-5 SU, 8-6 ATS) were in the driver seat for the division lead but suffered a huge letdown last week, losing to the Jets 23-20 as 17-point home favorites. Los Angeles currently occupies the 5-spot in the NFC playoffs but could catch Seattle with a win in this game. Meanwhile, the Seahawks (10-4 SU, 7-7 ATS) are getting hot at the right time, winning two straight and four of their last five. Seattle just beat Washington 20-15 last week, although they failed to cover as 6-point road favorites. Seattle has already clinched a playoff spot but needs to keep winning for seeding purposes. This line opened with Seattle listed as a 2.5-point home favorite. The public is all over Russell Wilson and happy to fade the Rams after their putrid loss to the Jets last week. However, despite this lopsided support to Seattle, the Seahawks have fallen from -2.5 to -1. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Rams. Los Angeles has value as a dog with a line move in their favor (60% ATS this season), a divisional dog (59% ATS) and a short road dog + 6 or less (65% ATS). The total is 47.5. Both of these teams have been profitable to the under, with the Rams 10-4 and Seahawks 8-6. These teams met in Week 10 and the Rams won 23-16. 8:20 p.m. ET: Tennessee Titans at Green Bay Packers
Bettors are in for a treat with this Sunday Night Football matchup between non-conference elites. The Titans (10-4 SU, 7-7 ATS) have won two-straight and four of their last five, including a 46-25 beatdown of the Lions last week, easily covering as 8.5-point home favorites. Tennessee currently sits in the 4-seed in the AFC but needs to keep winning to fend off the Colts. Similarly, the Packers (11-3 SU, 8-6 ATS) have won four-straight and just beat the Panthers 24-16, although they failed to cover as 9.5-point home favorites. Green Bay currently holds the 1-seed in the NFC but needs to keep winning to hold off the Saints and Seahawks for the first round bye. This line opened with the Packers listed as 4-point home favorites. Sharp money has sided with the Titans, dropping this line down to 3.5 or even 3 at some shops. Pros really liked the Titans getting the hook (+ 3.5). Tennessee has value as a primetime dog (61% ATS this season), a short road dog + 6 or less (65% ATS) and a dog with a line move in their favor (60% ATS). Respected money has hit the under, dropping the total from 56 to 54. The Titans are one of the best over teams this season (10-3-1). Green Bay is 7-7. The forecast calls for cold temperatures (low 20s) and possibly 15-20 MPH winds at Lambeau. Primetime unders are 59% this season. More Sunday Line Moves Jets + 10 to + 7 vs Browns Bengals + 8.5 to + 7 at Texans Panthers + 2.5 to + 1 at Washington Falcons + 11.5 to + 11 at Chiefs Broncos-Chargers Under 50 to 48.5 Eagles + 2 to -3 at Cowboys
|
|